Dodgers vs Reds: Yamamoto's the bold play to extend the streak

The Los Angeles Dodgers welcome the Cincinnati Reds to UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Thursday, 10 September at 12:10 pm AEST, and the runway for this one is clear. The Dodgers sit first in the NL with an 88–57 record and a six-game winning streak; the Reds are fifth in their division at 69–76, 20.5 games back, and coming off a loss in this very building two nights ago. Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes the ball for Los Angeles against Rhett Lowder, and the market has priced this accordingly — but the bold play is backing the home side to keep rolling.

The Dodgers have won five straight at home, all by two runs or fewer, and they've taken care of these same Reds twice already this week — 6–3 on Tuesday, 3–2 on Wednesday. That's a pattern worth leaning into, and our mlb picks reflect exactly that confidence in a side that knows how to finish tight contests on their own deck.

Who will win? Dodgers to extend the streak

Los Angeles enters this one with five wins on the bounce, all at home, all against quality opposition — two over Cincinnati, three over Washington. The Dodgers are averaging 5.4 runs per game across those five starts and conceding just 3.6, with an average winning margin of 1.8 runs. Coming off a 3–2 victory on Wednesday night, they've shown the ability to grind out results even when the offence isn't explosive.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, lost that Wednesday contest and are now on a two-game skid. Their last five overall have been a mixed bag — two wins at home against Milwaukee sandwiched by three losses, including the pair here in Los Angeles. The Reds are averaging 5.8 runs across those five games but conceding 6.0, and their road form in particular has been leaky.

The two sides met twice earlier this week, and the Dodgers took both by a combined 9–5 scoreline. That's an average total of seven runs per game, which sits neatly against the board's total line and tells you everything about how these pitching staffs have matched up. The Dodgers' run differential of +156 for the season dwarfs Cincinnati's –109, and that gap is even starker when you isolate home/road splits.

With Yamamoto on the mound for the home side, the value sits with Los Angeles to make it seven in a row. The market has them short, but the form, the venue, and the head-to-head history all point one way.

Can the Reds cover the runline?

The Dodgers are laying 1.5 runs, and the question is whether Cincinnati can keep it close enough to sneak in on the receiving end of that start. The away side's scoring profile suggests they can put runs on the board — 8.0 per game across their last three home starts, 5.8 across the last five overall — but their road form has been the problem.

Los Angeles has won its last five home games by margins of 1, 3, 2, 1, and 2 runs. That's an average winning margin of 1.8, which sits right on the line. The Reds lost by one run on Wednesday and by three on Tuesday, so they've been competitive in this building without getting over the line.

The bold play here is fading the favourite and taking Cincinnati to keep it within the number. The Reds have shown they can score — they put up 12 against Milwaukee just four days ago — and if Lowder can keep the Dodgers' bats in check early, this one stays tight. The runline offers value where the head-to-head market doesn't.

Totals: under the number in a pitcher's duel

The total is set at 8.5 runs, and the two meetings earlier this week averaged exactly 7.0 runs combined. The Dodgers are averaging 5.4 for and 3.6 against across their last five; Cincinnati 5.8 for and 6.0 against. Add those season averages together and you're sitting around 11–12 runs, but the recent head-to-head sample tells a different story.

Yamamoto on the mound for the Dodgers should suppress the Reds' offence, and Lowder has shown enough to keep things tight early. The over/under line is generous given how these two have played each other this week, and the value sits with the under. Expect another low-scoring affair, closer to the 7.0-run average we've seen than the inflated seasonal totals.

Same Game Multi angles

For punters chasing a bigger return, the Same Game Multi board offers a few priced combinations worth noting. Dodgers to win, Over 5.5 Dodgers total runs in the match & Shohei Ohtani to hit 1+ home runs is available at 5.75, while the more ambitious Over 11.5 total runs in the match, Shohei Ohtani to hit 1+ home runs & Sal Stewart to hit 1+ home runs pays 29. Those are parlays for the optimists, but they're on the board if you fancy a long-shot swing.