Dodgers v Pirates: the bold play as Snell takes the bump

The Los Angeles Dodgers welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates to UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Monday, 24 August at 6:10 am AEST, and this one lines up as a mismatch on paper. The Dodgers sit 79–51 (.608) and first in the NL West, riding a five-game winning streak; the Pirates clock in at 63–68 (.481), fourth in their division and eighteen-and-a-half games adrift. Blake Snell gets the ball for the home side opposite Lake Bachar, and the market has responded accordingly—Los Angeles priced a prohibitive favourite while Pittsburgh drift out past three dollars.

But the real intrigue sits beyond the match-winner line. These two clubs have combined for fireworks across their recent meetings, the Dodgers have been racking up runs across five straight victories, and the total board offers a sharper angle than simply laying the chalk with the home side. This is where our mlb picks zero in.

Who will win?

The Dodgers enter coming off a 4–3 win over Pittsburgh on Sunday—their fifth consecutive victory and the second one-run triumph in as many days against these same Pirates. Across those five wins the club has averaged 6.6 runs scored and 4.4 runs allowed, with winning margins of one, one, two, one, and six runs. That 2.2-run average win margin reflects narrow escapes as much as dominance, but the bottom line is five ticks in the win column.

Pittsburgh limp in on a two-game skid, both losses delivered by the Dodgers in one-run affairs. The Pirates' last five outings read L, L, W, W, L—they've averaged 4.0 runs scored against 4.2 allowed, splitting decisions and never quite pulling clear. Their most recent result was that 3–4 defeat on Sunday, and the trend line points down.

When these clubs met earlier in the season the Dodgers claimed four of five, with the past two encounters at Dodger Stadium finishing 4–3 and 5–4 in favour of the home side. The h2h ledger shows scorelines of 4–3, 5–4, 8–6, 8–9 (Pirates), and 12–3 across the five most recent clashes—an average combined total of 12.4 runs. The Dodgers have been the better side more often than not, but the margins have tightened.

Blake Snell on the mound tilts this further toward the home side. The market reflects that reality—Los Angeles priced at short odds to collect the win. The Pirates will need Bachar to defy both form and context to spring the upset, and nothing in the recent sample suggests they possess the firepower to out-slug a Dodgers lineup that has posted double digits twice in the past week.

Run line: can the Pirates keep it close?

The Dodgers lay 1.5 runs on the handicap, and that number deserves scrutiny. Yes, they've won five straight, but four of those five victories came by two runs or fewer—the outlier an eleven-run explosion against Colorado. Strip that game out and the Dodgers have been scraping home by the narrowest of margins.

The Pirates have lost their past two, both by a single run, and both to this same Dodgers outfit. They've shown they can hang around even when overmatched, averaging 4.0 runs across their last five while conceding just 4.2. That 2.0-run average winning margin when they do prevail, paired with a 1.7-run average losing margin, paints a picture of a side that competes without blowing out or getting blown out.

The case for Pittsburgh +1.5 hinges on their ability to keep the game tight—exactly what they managed on Saturday and Sunday. The Dodgers may well win, but asking them to cover a run-and-a-half against a side that has pushed them to the wire in consecutive outings feels like a bridge too far. The value sits with the visitors getting the start.

Total runs: overs the play

The total is pegged at 8.5 runs, and everything in the recent form screams over. The Dodgers have averaged 6.6 runs scored across their past five; the Pirates 4.0. Add those together and you land north of ten. Even if both sides regress slightly, the combined firepower should carry this game over the line.

The h2h history reinforces that lean. The five most recent meetings between these clubs have averaged 12.4 combined runs, with three of the five clearing ten and only one (the 4–3 slugfest on Sunday) dipping below nine. Saturday's 5–4 result pushed the total to nine runs; Sunday's 4–3 finish came in at seven. Both stayed under, but the broader sample tilts decisively toward run production.

The Dodgers have been relentless at the plate—11, 7, 6, 5, and 4 runs across their win streak. The Pirates have shown they can score when needed, posting four runs in three of their past five. Blake Snell will aim to suppress Pittsburgh's offence, but Lake Bachar faces a Dodgers lineup that has been feasting. The over is the bold play.

Same Game Multi watch

The SGM board offers a few interesting combinations for those chasing a bigger return. Dodgers to win, over 7.5 Dodgers total runs, and Shohei Ohtani to hit one-or-more home runs pays $7.50—an aggressive stack that backs the home side to dominate. On the flip side, Pirates to win, over 3.5 Pirates total runs, and Esmerlyn Valdez to hit a homer is priced at $10, a long-odds parlay for the contrarians.

For total-chasers, over 10.5 total runs combined with Ohtani and Valdez both going deep returns $21, while over 9.5 runs with Max Muncy and Brandon Lowe homers sits at $23. These combos lean into the run-scoring narrative that has defined this series, but they require everything to break right. Tread carefully.