India host West Indies in an ODI at 6:30 pm AEST on Sunday, and while the home side commands 1.11 favouritism, the market has missed the narrative. The tourists arrive in better touch, India are coming off back-to-back defeats, and 6.70 is far too generous for a side that can chase under pressure.
The hosts won three of their last five overall but lost their last two outings in England — most recently falling short by 27 runs chasing 388 on 19 July. West Indies, meanwhile, won their last start at home against New Zealand on 22 July, successfully defending 269 in a low-scoring thriller. Form counts, and right now the visitors carry momentum India do not.
Who wins? West Indies at the price
India sit 1.11 on the board, a reflection of home advantage and historical dominance. But recent results tell a different story. The hosts went 3–2 across their last five: wins over Afghanistan at home (by nine wickets and 170 runs) and one chase against England, but losses in their final two games away to England — 233 all out chasing 234, then 360/7 chasing 388. Coming off consecutive defeats is not the form line of a side worth laying 1.11 about.
West Indies are 2–3 in their last five, all at home against New Zealand, but crucially won their most recent outing — defending 269 with nine wickets down and just three balls to spare. Before that they lost three straight low-scoring chases (all under 190), but bounced back when it mattered. That last-start win shows they can handle scoreboard pressure, and touring India is exactly where that skill pays.
The sides have limited recent head-to-head history in this format, but the tourists' ability to defend tight totals and India's vulnerability chasing big scores (387/3 and 235/6 in their last two) opens the door. At 6.70, West Indies represent the bold play — a side in better touch against a favourite that has stumbled twice in succession and now faces the scrutiny of home expectation.
India's two wins at home in this sample came against Afghanistan, a materially weaker opponent. The tourists, by contrast, have been tested by New Zealand — a far sterner examination — and emerged with a pressure-chase victory last time out. For those hunting value in our cricket tips, backing West Indies at 6.70 is where the market's wrong.
Tipped at $6.70 (11:23 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
The risks
India at home remain formidable, and the 1.11 price reflects genuine class and conditions that favour them. Their two wins against Afghanistan were emphatic — 402 defended by 170 runs, then a nine-wicket chase inside 29 overs. If the hosts rediscover that rhythm, the tourists' recent struggles chasing low scores (three consecutive losses under 190) become a liability.
West Indies' form is also deceptive: four of their last five matches were played at home, and touring the subcontinent is a different proposition entirely. The bold call at 6.70 hinges on India's brittle confidence after two losses and the tourists' last-start composure under pressure — but if the hosts fire from ball one, the value evaporates quickly.