Pakistan host Sri Lanka in the second T20I at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on Monday, 12 October at 12:00 am AEDT, and the market has spoken: the hosts are bolted-on favourites at 1.36. Sri Lanka sit at 3.18, a price that reflects their abysmal recent run. Five straight losses tell a brutal story, and the tourists' last outing was a five-run defeat in this very fixture two days ago. Pakistan, meanwhile, chased down 183 with seven balls to spare in that opener, and the momentum is all one way.
The visitors arrive at Rawalpindi in freefall. Their last five reads like a catalogue of collapses: bowled out for 45 against India on 1 October, then three consecutive losses to England in September, including a mauling where they posted just 135 chasing 255. Saturday's five-run loss to Pakistan was their closest result in over a month, but even that came down to a failed chase. Their batting has been brittle, their bowling porous, and there's nothing in recent form to suggest a turnaround is imminent.
Pakistan's form is tidier but not flawless. They've won two of their last five, including Saturday's win over Sri Lanka at home and a March victory over the same opponents away. A 19-run loss to India on 3 October and a two-run defeat to England in February show they can be vulnerable, but those setbacks came on the road. At Rawalpindi, they defended 183 with ease last start, and the conditions clearly suit their attack.
Why Pakistan will win
The head-to-head record paints a clear picture. Pakistan won the most recent encounter at this venue by five runs, and of the five meetings listed, they've claimed three victories. Even the one Sri Lanka win in March came in a game where Pakistan posted 212 and pushed the chase to the final over. The tourists' only other result was a no-result in January. There's no pattern of Sri Lankan dominance here, and the momentum from Saturday's win gives Pakistan every reason to press home the advantage.
Pakistan's home form is limited to one recent outing, but it's a strong one: 187 for six chasing 183 against Sri Lanka on 10 October. Their attack restricted the visitors to 182 for eight, then their batters hunted down the target with seven balls in hand. That win follows a disciplined performance in March where they defended 212 on the road against the same opponent. The hosts have shown they can both post totals and chase them down, and they've done it against this exact opponent twice in the past eight months.
Sri Lanka, by contrast, have no wins in their last five. Their most competitive showing was Saturday's 182 for eight at Rawalpindi, a total that never looked enough once Pakistan's chase got rolling. Before that, they were humiliated for 45 all out against India, a collapse that exposed every fault line in their batting order. The tourists have lost the plot, and nothing in their recent results suggests they can flip the script here. Our cricket tips lean heavily toward the hosts to wrap up the series.
Tipped at $1.36 (6:14 am AEDT). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
The risks
Pakistan's 1.36 quote leaves little margin for error. If the hosts bat first and post a modest total, Sri Lanka's desperation could make them dangerous in a chase. The visitors pushed Pakistan hard in the most recent meeting, and T20 cricket is volatile enough that one inspired spell can swing a game. Pakistan's own form isn't spotless — they've lost two of their last five, including a heavy defeat to India — and complacency is a real threat when facing a side in such poor touch.
The other danger is the tourists' bowlers finding rhythm. They restricted Pakistan to 187 on Saturday, and if they can land early blows with the new ball, the pressure could shift. Sri Lanka's batting has been catastrophic, but their attack has at least kept them in games. A quick wicket or two, and Pakistan could find themselves chasing a competitive total rather than cantering home. The hosts are clear favourites, but this price demands they execute without error.