The 3rd Test at Edgbaston on Wednesday, 9 September at 8:00 pm AEST will settle this series, and the market has spoken: England have firmed from $1.24 to $1.23, while Pakistan have drifted from $6 to $6.25. Two dominant home victories in August — a 244-run win on 19 August and a 195-run triumph on 27 August — have left the tourists scrambling for answers. The value sits with England to complete the clean sweep, but the question is whether Pakistan can salvage pride or whether they'll crumble again under pressure.
England come into this decider with momentum and conviction. Pakistan arrive carrying the weight of two heavy defeats and a form line that reads like a litany of collapses. The hosts have won three of their last five at home, including both encounters against these opponents. Pakistan have lost four of their last five overall, managing just one win against West Indies in early August. The market's move tells the story: England are shortening because punters see no reason to back against them.
Who will win the 3rd Test?
England's case is built on dominance. They posted 409 in the first innings on 19 August, dismissed Pakistan for 171 and 135, and wrapped up an innings victory. On 27 August, they compiled 290 and 208, then bowled Pakistan out for 110 and 194 to set up a 195-run win. Coming off that comfortable victory, the hosts have found a formula that works: bat deep, post competitive totals, then strangle the tourists with relentless discipline.
Pakistan's last start — that 195-run defeat on 27 August — exposed familiar weaknesses. Chasing 389, they folded for 194 in 50.5 overs in the second innings, never threatening the target. Before that, they managed just 171 and 135 in the first Test. One win in their last five matches, and that came against West Indies in a low-scoring affair. Away from home, they've been brittle: four losses in their last five on the road.
The head-to-head record is unambiguous. England won by an innings in August, then by 195 runs a week later. Pakistan have been outplayed in both contests, unable to match England's first-innings totals or resist their bowling attacks in the second dig. The only unknown is whether the visitors can summon something they haven't shown yet in this series — resilience under scoreboard pressure.
The market reflects that reality. England have firmed to $1.23 while Pakistan have drifted to $6.25, a move that suggests punters see the hosts as near-certainties. The value play is to back that confidence. England at home, on a roll, against a side that's been thoroughly outclassed. The bold call is to trust the form line and the price move.
Tipped at $1.23 (6:13 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Where does the draw sit?
The draw is quoted at $8.75, a long enough price to suggest the market expects a result. Neither of the previous two Tests went the distance — England won by an innings on 19 August and by 195 runs on 27 August. Both matches finished inside four days, with Pakistan unable to bat time or build partnerships when the pressure mounted. Unless the weather intervenes or the pitch plays flat for five days, this one should produce a winner.
For those hunting ashes tips or looking for an angle beyond the match-winner market, the draw offers speculative value only if you believe Pakistan can suddenly find grit they've lacked all series. But the evidence doesn't support it. The tourists have been bowled out cheaply in three of their last four innings against England, and their recent away record — four losses in five — suggests they lack the patience to grind out a stalemate. The draw is long for a reason.
The risks to the England play
Backing England at $1.23 requires swallowing short odds for a five-day format where collapses happen and conditions shift. Pakistan did post 387 against West Indies in early August, proof they can bat when the pressure eases. If England's top order falters early and Pakistan can post a competitive first-innings total, the dynamic changes. Tests can be drawn, and a flat Edgbaston pitch could blunt England's attack enough to push this one into the fifth day with no result.
But the form line, the head-to-head record, and the market's move all point the same way. England have won the battles that matter — first innings, second innings, and the mental contest. Pakistan have shown nothing in this series to suggest they can turn it around now. The bold play is to back the hosts to finish the job.