Verdict up front: Memphis should win and the value sits beyond the head-to-head — there’s real leverage on the line and the total. Tip-off is Tue 3 Nov, 12:10 pm AEDT and this matters because Memphis are running as the league’s best unit so far while New Orleans still has holes defensively. If you’re scanning nba predictions, this is the clash where the market’s price points make the play obvious.
Who will win?
Call it: Memphis. They arrive 6-0 and leading the league in several advanced snapshots — season SRS 17.15 and a +15.17 margin per game — while New Orleans are 2-4 with an SRS of 0 and a much slimmer margin per game (1.83).
Memphis score 121.2 points per game and hold opponents to 106, giving them a net Rtg and an offensive engine that’s legitimate; New Orleans still put up 119.7 points a night but concede 117.8. That defensive gap is the difference here — Memphis defend far cleaner on paper.
The market lines this as a clear home favourite (Head to Head prices available in the board). Backing Memphis is opinionated, not certain: New Orleans have talent in their leading scorers — including Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray — so the risk is their offence exploding. Still, the case for Memphis winning is straightforward and price-backed.
Tipped at $1.45 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Leading scorers
Season points per game.
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | Pts |
|---|---|
| Ty JeromeSG | 25.8 |
| Cameron BoozerPF | 17.7 |
| Cedric CowardSG | 13.0 |
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | Pts |
|---|---|
| Zion WilliamsonPF | 20.7 |
| Dejounte MurrayPG | 17.8 |
| Saddiq BeySF | 15.2 |
Line — can Memphis cover?
The home line sits at Memphis -6.5 (unit: points). Memphis’s season marginPerGame is 15.17, comfortably larger than the spread, while New Orleans’s marginPerGame is only 1.83; that differential supports the favourite covering.
Pace figures are similar enough — Memphis 100.5 possessions, New Orleans 103.9 — so this isn’t a pace-driven trap. Memphis also boast superior defensive numbers on the season (pointsAgainstPerGame 106 vs New Orleans 117.8), which makes it harder for the Pelicans to outscore at a rate that erases a 6.5-point start.
Tipped at $1.90 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Line context
Season average margin, set against this match's line. The marker is the margin that covers.
Total — over or under 224.5 points?
Total line: 224.5 points. Combine the teams’ scoring rates and you get a strong lean to the over — Memphis average 121.2 points and New Orleans 119.7, which sums to roughly 240.9 points per game on season numbers.
Defence nudges the picture a touch — Memphis concede just 106 while New Orleans concede 117.8 — but the combined offensive firepower and the Pelicans’ higher concession rate point toward a game that clears 224.5 more often than not. Expect a free-flowing game and plan accordingly.
Tipped at $1.30 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Total points
Hit rate vs 224.5
Season points per game. Marker is the live total of 224.5.
Combined pace 102.2 possessions per game.
Same Game Multi ideas
If you want a pre-built SGM, the board already lists several structured combos. Two notable ones: "Pelicans to win, Under 234.5 points & Karlo Matkovic to get 5+ rebounds" priced 7.5, and the bigger-risk "Pelicans to win, Z. Williamson to get 25+ points & D. Murray to get 25+ points" priced 34.
Those combos lean heavily on a Pelicans upset — they’re priced accordingly and can work if New Orleans’ stars catch fire, but they stand in contrast to the primary lean of this preview.
The risks
Memphis’ undefeated start is from a small sample; short seasons and early form swings happen. New Orleans possess individual scorers — Williamson and Murray — capable of producing a spike that overturns the script.
Finally, the board prices reflect public confidence (the total’s heavy bias to the over and Memphis as favourite). Respect the chance of variance and size stakes to your tolerance.