This one lands at 12:10 pm AEDT on Mon, 26 Oct and it’s a simple narrative: Memphis are the market favourite but there’s value to be nicked if you’re hunting it. If you read nba tips for contrarian edges, this fixture is exactly the kind of spot where a bold underdog call can pay off.
Sacramento host Memphis with two teams clustered of the lower rungs — Kings are 22-60 and Grizzlies 25-57 on the season — but neither defence has been stingy. Sacramento average 111 points per game while allowing 121; Memphis score 114.7 and concede 120.7. Those season rates shape both the moneyline and the total debate.
Who will win? The moneyline case
Memphis are the clear market favourite on the head-to-head board (away price 1.55) while Sacramento sit as the underdog (home price 2.45). On raw season numbers Memphis have the edge: more wins (25 v 22), a better SRS (-5.83 v -9.58) and a slightly higher scoring output (114.7ppg v 111ppg).
That said, Sacramento’s home status plus the modest gap in offensive numbers leaves room for a single-game upset. The Kings concede 121 points per game but their opponents’ scoring environment and Memphis’s own defensive numbers (allowing 120.7) mean this isn’t an outrageously one-sided mismatch.
The bold play is backing Sacramento to win outright at the underdog price. It’s a contrarian call against the market favourite and leans on home-court parity and a tight scoring gap — a low-confidence, value-driven opinion rather than a heavy-handed projection.
Tipped at $2.45 (10:13 pm AEDT). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Line (handicap) — can Sacramento cover +4.5?
The board quotes a home line of +4.5 points (unit: points) with even prices on both sides. Since the home spread is +4.5, the Kings start with a 4.5-point buffer.
Combine season scoring rates and the line and the Kings +4.5 looks playable as the same logic that supports a moneyline upset also supports the spread: Memphis’s scoring edge is real but small, and both teams concede north of 120 a game, suggesting swings are possible. This is a medium-confidence, value-first lean.
Tipped at $1.90 (10:13 pm AEDT). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Totals — the under case
Total points are set at 226.5 (unit: points) with Over priced at 1.32 and Under at 3.30. Add the two teams’ season scoring averages — Sacramento 111 and Memphis 114.7 — and the combined number is 225.7 points per game.
That seasonal combined average (225.7) sits just under the market total (226.5), which gives an evidence-based nudge toward Under 226.5. The market clearly favours the Over, but there’s a tidy statistical argument that the total has been priced a touch hot; this is a medium-confidence, value-lean toward the Under.
Tipped at $3.30 (10:13 pm AEDT). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Same Game Multi picks
SGM combos are live for this clash and the board lists several priced packs. Two ready-made options from the popular same-game catalogue are exactly as quoted on the board:
• "Kings to win, Z. LaVine to get 25+ points & Darius Acuff Jr. to get 25+ points" — price 17. • "Kings +9.5 point spread, Under 241.5 points, Z. LaVine to get 20+ points & Keegan Murray to get 4+ rebounds" — price 5.
If you like one-and-done parlays, those combos capture the underdog + lower-total narrative that’s threaded through this preview. They’re higher-variance ways to back the same core view that underpins the tips below.