Kick-off is Sun, 13 Sept, 2:30 am AEST at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and this one matters early in the season table. Tottenham have had a horror start — two games, two losses and zero points — while Everton sit on four points after two rounds. If you read epl tips for value, this fixture is where the market and the facts give you an angle.

I’m backing the away side as the bold play, and I’ll lay out why Everton looks like the smarter bet on the win market and why the line (+1) is the safer way to back them.

Who will win?

Tottenham arrive at home sitting 20th on the ladder with 0 points from two games (overall 0-0-2) and a -5 point differential after conceding five. Everton are clear of them in the table — 7th with 4 points from two, an overall 1-1-0 record and a +2 differential.

Form reads in Everton’s favour. Tottenham’s most recent result was a loss: Sun, 30 Aug L 0–2 v Newcastle United (H). Everton’s most recent outing was a draw: Sun, 30 Aug D 1–1 v AFC Bournemouth (A), and they also beat Crystal Palace 2–0 on Sun, 23 Aug. That contrast — two straight defeats for Spurs, a win and a draw for Everton — is the core of the case.

The market pegs Tottenham as the shorter price at home (win/ draw/ win board: home 2, draw 3.5, away 3.4), but the away price has tightened in the last 24 hours — Everton 3.5→3.4 (firmed) — which tells you the money is already nudging the away side. I see clear value backing Everton to win at the current board and am happy to back that opinion.

Risk check: Tottenham are at home and still the market favourite, so a patient Spurs start or a single big chance could swing the result. But on balance, Everton’s ladder position, recent results and the market move make them my pick here.

Win/Draw/WinOdds correct as at 2:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Tottenham Hotspur1.95Our tipEverton3.50
Solid leanOur tip: Everton. Everton sit higher on the ladder (7th) with a win and a draw in two starts, while Tottenham are 20th with two defeats; the away price has firmed to 3.4 (Everton 3.5→3.4 (firmed)), so there’s value backing the away side.

Tipped at $3.40 (11:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.

0Season avg goals for3
2.5Season avg goals against1
0%Season win rate100%
0Last 2 avg goals for1.5
0%Last-five win rate50%

Line / handicap — finding the buffer

The home line is -1 (Tottenham -1) with prices showing home 3.9 and away 1.8 for Everton +1. The away line price has also firmed: Everton 1.82→1.8 (firmed). That movement reinforces the idea the market is rewarding Everton for their steadier start.

Why the +1 looks attractive: Tottenham have lost by two and three goals in their two matches (L 0–2, L 0–3), whereas Everton have a 2–0 win and a 1–1 draw in their last two. Giving Everton a one-goal cushion removes the danger of a narrow Spurs home shock and still lets you back Everton’s superior early-season form.

If you want a bit of insurance without surrendering the upside of an away winner, Everton +1 sells the same view more conservatively than a straight away win.

LineOdds correct as at 2:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Tottenham Hotspur -13.75Our tipEverton +11.85
Solid leanOur tip: Everton +1. Tottenham have lost both matches by multi-goal margins; Everton’s form (W 2–0, D 1–1) and the line movement (Everton 1.82→1.8 (firmed)) make +1 a sensible buffer play.

Tipped at $1.80 (11:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Line cover (form)

Cover rate applies this match's live spread to recent completed scores — not a season ATS record.

Tottenham Hotspur-1last 2

Cover rate0%0/2
Avg margin (-2.5)avg -2.5vs 1
-75

Everton+1last 2

Cover rate100%2/2
0%Cover % (form)100%

Same Game Multi — priced combos worth a look

The board has a bundle of Same Game Multi ideas. Two that jump out straight from the pack are: "Over 0.5 goals, Over 9.5 corners & Rodrigo Bentancur to be carded" at price 4.6, and "Everton to win & Conor Gallagher to be carded" at price 8.5.

If you prefer an Everton result with a bit of volatility baked in, the Everton-to-win SGM (Everton to win & Conor Gallagher to be carded, price 8.5) is the purest expression of that view. For a lower-risk match-activity style, the Over 0.5 goals / Over 9.5 corners / Bentancur card combo at 4.6 is straighter and leans on game flow rather than the match-winner.

The risks

Tottenham are at home and still the market favourite on the win board — home price 2 — so an early Spurs goal changes the game fast. Home advantage and the pressure of expectations can flip these results, especially when a battered side is already fighting for confidence.

Everton’s market moves have firmed them up, which cuts into value a touch; the win market has Everton 3.5→3.4 (firmed) and the line move shows Everton 1.82→1.8 (firmed). If you’re hunting maximum value you may prefer the line buffer rather than a straight away win.