Crystal Palace welcome TSG Hoffenheim to Selhurst Park on Friday 6 November at 4:45 am AEDT, and the market has spoken: the hosts have firmed from 1.88 to 1.85 while the visitors have drifted from 3.4 to 3.6. That price move tells you where the weight of money is landing, and for good reason.
Palace sit 12th in the Europa League standings, Hoffenheim 16th — both sides on zero points, but the market clearly sees a gulf in class. The draw has also firmed slightly from 3.9 to 3.8, suggesting punters expect a tight affair, but we're not interested in sitting on the fence. The value sits with Palace to win and cover the spread, and with the overs in what should be an open contest at Selhurst Park.
Who will win?
Crystal Palace are 1.85 to take all three points, and that price has firmed over the past 24 hours — a clear signal the market backs the home side. Hoffenheim at 3.6 look overpriced in our view, especially after drifting from 3.4. The visitors have shown nothing in their early Europa League campaign to suggest they can travel to South London and trouble a Palace side that will be desperate to get on the board.
With both teams sitting on zero points and zero games played in the league phase, there's limited recent form to analyse, but the ladder positions alone paint a picture: Palace 12th, Hoffenheim 16th. The market's move toward Palace suggests the bookmakers have assessed the underlying quality and see a clear home favourite. We agree.
The bold play here is Palace to win at 1.85. The price has firmed for a reason, and we're not fading that momentum. Hoffenheim's drift to 3.6 tells you everything you need to know about their chances.
Tipped at $1.85 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Line market: Palace to cover the spread
The line market has Palace -2 goals at 6.5, firmed from 7. That's a significant move, and it suggests the market expects Palace to win by at least two goals. Hoffenheim are +2 at 1.32, but we're not interested in the short price on the visitors getting a start.
Palace at 6.5 to cover -2 goals is the bold call. The firming from 7 to 6.5 shows punters are backing Palace to win comfortably, and we're inclined to agree. Hoffenheim have shown nothing to suggest they can keep this close, and Palace at home should have more than enough to win by two or more.
The value sits with Palace -2 at 6.5. It's a bold lean, but the market move supports it, and we're backing our europa league predictions to land.
Tipped at $6.50 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Totals: overs the play
The total is set at 2.5 goals, with overs at 1.46 (firmed from 1.48) and unders at 2.5. The firming on the overs tells you punters expect goals, and we're inclined to back that view.
With both sides sitting on zero points and desperate to get their campaigns rolling, this has the makings of an open contest. Palace will push forward at home, and Hoffenheim will need to chase the game if they fall behind. That should create space for goals at both ends.
Overs at 1.46 is the call. The market has firmed on this line, and we expect three or more goals in what should be an entertaining clash at Selhurst Park.
Tipped at $1.46 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Same Game Multi angles
If you're looking to get creative, the Same Game Multi market offers some interesting combos. Yeremi Pino to score anytime, Crystal Palace to win and both teams to score is priced at 6 — a bold combination that covers Palace winning while Hoffenheim grab a consolation.
Crystal Palace to win and Anan Khalaili to score anytime sits at 5, while Crystal Palace to win, Jean-Philippe Mateta to score anytime and Yeremi Pino to score anytime is available at 6.5. These combos reflect the market's expectation that Palace will win but Hoffenheim will find the net.