Fixture: Bologna v Monza, Round 10 of Serie A — kick-off Sun, 1 Nov, 1:00 am AEDT. Two teams rock-bottom in the early table meet with form as ugly as the standings, which is exactly where value hunters live.
This isn't a glamour tie; both sides have lost their most recent starts and carry defensive questions into the weekend. The market has made Bologna favourite, but there are clear angles to separate public noise from genuine value. I’ll outline where the value sits, why I’m leaning the way I am, and the risks you need to bank before backing anything.
WHO WILL WIN?
The board lists Bologna as the favourite while Monza are the bigger price. Bologna sit 15th on the early ladder with 0 points from 2 games (0-0-2), a points-for tally of 0 and points-against of 2. Monza are lower at 18th with 0 points from 2 games (0-0-2), but they’ve scored 3 and conceded 7 — a much looser defence on paper.
Form entries read newest first: Bologna’s most recent result is Tue, 1 Sept: L 0–1 v Atalanta (A), before that Tue, 25 Aug: L 0–1 v Lazio (H). Monza’s newest results are Sun, 30 Aug: L 2–3 v Udinese (H) and Sun, 23 Aug: L 1–4 v Internazionale (A). Both clubs are coming off defeats; Bologna’s back-to-back 0–1 losses underline their scoring drought, while Monza’s results show they can both find the net and leak goals.
The bold play: back Monza away. Why? Bologna haven’t scored across their two matches and are yet to post a goal tally (pointsFor: 0), whereas Monza have managed three goals in two starts — there’s attacking intent in their numbers even if the defence is porous. That combination creates upside at the bigger price: Monza are more likely to produce goals, and when both sides are struggling, the underdog can catch a favourite flat.
The risks are obvious and acute. Monza’s pointsAgainst is 7 after two games, which leaves them vulnerable to a Bologna side that will be desperate to end a scoring drought at home. Bologna’s ladder position and slightly better goal differential (-2 vs Monza’s -4) also justify market support, so siding with Monza is a contrarian call rather than following the core market lean.
This preview is part of our serie a predictions coverage: the pick leans to the away side at value, framed as an opinion rather than a promise.
Tipped at $4.40 (11:13 pm AEDT). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.