Bologna v Sassuolo: the bold plays — where the value sits at Renato Dall'Ara

Bologna host Sassuolo at Renato Dall'Ara on Mon, 7 Sept, 2:00 am AEST in a Serie A fixture that already feels like a six-pointer for the home side’s confidence. Bologna sit 15th with zero points from two matches, while Sassuolo are 11th with three points — tidy little margins that change the tone here.

Form tells a blunt story: Bologna have failed to score in two starts (L 0–1 v Atalanta on Tue, 1 Sept; L 0–1 v Lazio on Tue, 25 Aug) and their most recent result was that 0–1 loss at Atalanta. Sassuolo head in on a win, W 2–1 v Torino on Sun, 30 Aug, so they arrive with a little more momentum and a goals ledger already showing three for the season.

We’ll run through who should win, how the market has priced the handicap and why the value sits where it does — and yes, we’ll call out the best Same Game Multi combos on the board. For the record, if you’re hunting serie a predictions, this is the frame we’re backing from the available facts.

WHO WILL WIN?

On the head-to-head board Bologna are the short-priced favourite at 1.95, the draw is 3.4 and Sassuolo are out at 3.6. That pricing gives Bologna the edge on paper, but the underlying form muddies the picture.

Bologna’s two defeats have been tight (both 0–1), so while results are poor they have kept margins narrow; their most recent outing was the 0–1 loss to Atalanta (Tue, 1 Sept). Sassuolo have a more mixed record but come off a win (W 2–1 v Torino, Sun, 30 Aug) and a season total of 3 goals so far, which suggests more attacking intent than Bologna have shown.

Given those facts the market makes Bologna favourites but it’s not overwhelming. Backing Sassuolo to win would be a contrarian read against the head-to-head price; instead our lean is shaped by the line and totals markets below — the head-to-head price is part of the picture, not the full play.

LINE / HANDICAP

The line is shown as -1 for the home side (Bologna) with the home -1 price at 3.8 and the away +1 price at 1.82. Note the home -1 price moved in the last 24 hours: 3.9→3.8 (firmed).

Those odds mean the book is rewarding anyone willing to take Sassuolo on +1 at a shorter price for a safety net, while punters willing to back Bologna to cover -1 are being paid bigger if the home side can push for a clear win.

Look at recent margins: Bologna’s two defeats were both by 1 goal (margins of 1), and Sassuolo’s last two matches were a 2–1 win and a 1–2 loss — both one-goal margins too. That suggests a -1 line for Bologna is a proper slice of risk rather than a given; backing Sassuolo +1 is the value play if you prefer the insurance of a draw/push scenario or a single-goal swing.

TOTALS

The total is set at 2.5 goals (Total Goals (+/- 2.5)) with Under 2.5 priced 1.83 and Over 2.5 at 1.94.

Recent scorelines point to a low-scoring tilt from Bologna (0–1, 0–1) while Sassuolo’s two results were 2–1 and 1–2 — so their contests have been a touch higher but still tight. Combined, those matches show repeated one-goal margins rather than high-scoring blowouts.

That mix makes Under 2.5 look attractive: Bologna have yet to score this season and Sassuolo’s results to date are close affairs, so a low total is well within the realm of likely outcomes.

SAME GAME MULTI

If you’re into same-game multis, the board already has a handful of priced combos. Highlights priced exactly as listed are: “Bologna to win, Over 2.5 goals & Over 7.5 corners” at 4.33; “Sebastiano Esposito to score anytime & Federico Bernardeschi to be carded” at 10; and “Sassuolo to win & Federico Bernardeschi to be carded” at 10.

There’s also a very short option for a modest return: “Over 0.5 Bologna goals & Over 2.5 Bologna corners” at 1.33. Use these as flavour plays — they reflect market sentiment on scorers and cards and give a different route to back a view on the match.