Cerundolo v Blockx, Fourth Round: the bold play and where the value sits

Fourth-round tennis at Tue, 8 Sept, 4:00 am AEST pitches Francisco Cerundolo against Alexander Blockx in a matchup that splits form, ladder position and recent head-to-head. If you hunt value, this one’s worth the look — tennis predictions aside, there’s a clear market story across the head-to-head, sets line and games total that we can exploit.

WHO WILL WIN?

This is a proper pick’em on paper: Cerundolo comes in with the stronger ladder position (rank 23) and a 31-16 year-to-date record, while Blockx sits further back on the ladder (rank 32) but has shown bite in recent matches and owns the latest head-to-head win.

Both men arrive in decent nick — Francisco Cerundolo is coming off a win (Wed, 2 Sept: W 6 6 7–4 3 5 v Filip Misolic (A)) and Alexander Blockx is also coming off a win (Tue, 1 Sept: W 6 6 6–3 4 2 v TBD (H)). Recent form leans slightly to the in-form Blockx for consistency over his last three starts, while Cerundolo’s results have been more up-and-down.

Their only recent meeting was Apr 2026, a win to Alexander Blockx, so there’s a direct precedent in Blockx’s favour in head-to-head terms.

The Head to Head board reflects that view: Francisco Cerundolo 2.25→2.35 (drifted) and Alexander Blockx 1.65→1.6 (firmed). With Blockx’s price firming in the match-winner market and the H2H edge, our lean is to back Alexander Blockx to take this one — it’s the bold call, backed by form and the market tightening for him.

SETS LINE

Sets market is quoting a 1.5 line (home get a start). That means Francisco Cerundolo is +1.5 sets to the book and Alexander Blockx is effectively -1.5.

There’s been notable churn in the sets market: Francisco Cerundolo 3.2→1.7 (firmed) and Alexander Blockx 1.35→2.15 (drifted). Translation: money trimmed the Cerundolo side on the sets market while the Blockx -1.5 price has drifted out — that drift can create value if you back Blockx to win in straights.

Blockx’s recent wins have included straight-set results, which supports the argument that -1.5 is attainable for him; Cerundolo’s matches have tended to go longer and have been more variable. With Blockx’s match-winner price firming but the sets line drifting out, the -1.5 at the current line is the bold value play if you believe Blockx can repeat a straight-sets performance.

GAMES TOTAL (39.5)

The total is 39.5 games (labelled Games) with pricing at over 1.8 and under 2.0. Both players have recent three-set affairs on their form sheets and the head-to-head was tight, which nudges this toward the extra games side.

Given the texture of recent results — several extended matches and tight sets — our lean is Over 39.5 games, but this is a lower-confidence play compared with the winner/sets angles because set lengths and tiebreaks are unpredictable.