Jodar v Bublik: the bold play on the underdog at a price

Rafael Jodar meets Alexander Bublik in the ATP Robin stage on Saturday, 26 September at 4:00 am AEST. The Spaniard sits 14th in the world rankings with a 37-15 season record, while Bublik arrives ranked 21st despite a more seasoned career profile of 217-190. The market has Jodar a comfortable favourite at $1.52, but the case for the away underdog at $2.55 is stronger than the board suggests.

Jodar's 71 per cent season win rate looks impressive on paper, yet his last start tells a different story — he retired at 2-1 down against Thanasi Kokkinakis on Thursday, 3 September. Before that withdrawal, the right-hander had strung together four consecutive wins across late July and early August, three of them coming at home. Bublik, meanwhile, is coming off a loss to Tommy Paul on Friday, 4 September, but that followed three straight wins earlier in the month, including back-to-back victories over the Wolf brothers and Adrian Mannarino. The Kazakh's 28-18 season sits at 61 per cent, but his 53 per cent career mark reflects the durability and big-match experience Jodar simply hasn't yet accumulated.

Who will win?

The head-to-head ledger between these two reads 0-0 — they've never met. That absence of history puts the onus on current form and season trajectories. Jodar has won four of his last five overall, but the most recent outing ended in retirement. That's not the momentum you want rolling into a Robin stage clash, particularly when your opponent has been testing himself against higher-calibre opposition.

Bublik's last five show three wins and two losses. The defeats came against Tommy Paul and Quentin Halys — both quality operators. The wins, however, came in straight succession between 30 August and 2 September, all dispatched at home with clinical scorelines. The Spaniard's four-win streak in late July and early August featured two matches against opponents listed only as TBD, which limits the weight we can assign to those results.

The market has Jodar at $1.52 and Bublik at $2.55. That's a 66 per cent implied probability on the home player, but the form, ranking differential, and career pedigree don't support that kind of gulf. Bublik has nine career titles to Jodar's one. He's faced and beaten deeper opposition across a 217-win career. The value sits with the away option, and our tennis tips lean that direction.

Set Handicap: Bublik to cover +1.5

The Set Handicap market offers Jodar at -1.5 sets and Bublik at +1.5 sets. Given Jodar's most recent match ended in retirement and Bublik's last five include three consecutive wins before the Paul loss, the away player shapes to keep this competitive even if he falls short of an outright win.

Bublik's recent outings have been tight — the Tommy Paul loss went deep into a third set, and his wins over the Wolfs and Mannarino all required multiple sets. Jodar's form prior to the Kokkinakis withdrawal showed similar patterns: narrow scorelines against Lorenzo Musetti and the unidentified opponents. Neither player has been blowing opponents off the court, which points to a contested match that Bublik can keep within touching distance.

Total Games: the case for the under

The Total Games line sits at 20.5. Given both players' recent form shows matches going the distance but neither racking up marathon scorelines, the under has merit. Jodar's last completed match against Musetti on Friday, 7 August reads as 6-4, 6-3 — a tidy straight-sets affair. Bublik's win over Mannarino on Wednesday, 2 September clocked in at 6-3, 6-1 — another swift conclusion.

When both players are moving through opponents efficiently or when fitness becomes a question mark — as Jodar's retirement suggests — we often see tighter, shorter contests. The under at 20.5 games aligns with that pattern and offers a secondary angle to the Bublik value play.