Sun 15 Nov, 7:00 am AEDT — this semi-final is a heavyweight slice of the draw and a real form clash at the top of the table. Need tennis tips? Mirra Andreeva (ranked 3) meets Jessica Pegula (ranked 5) with both players coming into the match on winning runs; the board has Andreeva favoured but there’s value to be hunted beyond the straight-up market.
Both women have been busy this swing: Andreeva arrives off a win on Thu, 12 Nov and has a string of straight-set results in her recent form, while Pegula also arrives off a win on Fri, 13 Nov but has been involved in more three-set battles in the sample. This preview backs a decisive line — and explains the risks.
WHO WILL WIN?
The case for Mirra Andreeva is simple and brutal: higher ladder position (rank 3) and a steam of straight-set wins in the recent sample, plus a 52-16 year-to-date record that underpins consistency. Her most recent result is a win on Thu, 12 Nov.
Jessica Pegula is no pushover — she’s ranked 5 with a 52-15 YTD record and also arrives off a win on Fri, 13 Nov — but her last five results show a few longer three-set affairs, which hands Andreeva the edge if she keeps the tempo high early.
Head-to-head is limited recent head-to-head history (0-0), so this one will be decided on how comfortably Andreeva can press her advantage. The market agrees that Andreeva is favourite (Head to Head: Andreeva 1.45, Pegula 2.6), and the tip here sides with the favourite: Mirra Andreeva to win in a strong, controlled performance.
Tipped at $1.45 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
0–0
Mirra Andreeva vs Jessica Pegula
SETS LINE — who covers the -1.5?
The sets market has the home player as a -1.5 favourite (home line = -1.5 sets). That’s a bet on a straight-sets win from Andreeva.
Form gives this market teeth: Andreeva’s recent results include multiple straight-set victories in the sample, while Pegula’s recent slate contains several three-set matches, suggesting Pegula is likelier to be pushed deep. If Andreeva reproduces her straight-set rhythm she covers -1.5; the line price for the home -1.5 selection is available on the board and shapes up as the bold play.
Tipped at $2.20 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Set handicap (±1.5) form
−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.
Mirra Andreevalast 5
Jessica Pegulalast 5
TOTAL GAMES — over or under 21.5?
The tournament total is 21.5 games (label: Games). Choose under if you expect a sharp, straight-sets Andreeva win; choose over if Pegula drags this into a thriller.
Given the balance — Andreeva’s run of clean-set wins versus Pegula’s recent three-set bouts — backing under 21.5 is an aggressive, value-seeking call on a quick Andreeva victory. The board prices the under at 2.00 and the over at 1.75, so the under offers the juicier return if you think Andreeva can keep it tight.
Tipped at $2.00 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 21.5.
Hit rate vs 21.5