Bartunkova v Sabalenka, Third Round: the bold play and where the value sits

Verdict up front: back Aryna Sabalenka to take this in convincing fashion, but Nikola Bartunkova’s recent form and that lone June loss mean there’s genuine contrarian value if you want to go bold. The Third‑round tie starts Sun, 4 Oct, 2:00 pm AEDT and it’s one of those matchups where the market heavily favours the world No.2 — and for good reason.

Sabalenka arrives as one of the season’s most dominant players (47‑9 YTD, 24 career titles, current rank No.2) while Bartunkova is the underdog on paper (current rank No.34, 21‑13 YTD). Both players are right‑handed and both come off wins on Fri, 2 Oct: Bartunkova beat Magdalena Frech and Sabalenka beat Renata Zarazua.

If you collect tennis tips, this is the kind of clash that forces a decision between backing status and chasing value. Sabalenka’s season numbers scream favourite; Bartunkova’s recent wins and home comfort mean an upset isn’t fanciful. Below: the case for the chalk, the case for the upset, and the risks either way.

WHO WILL WIN?

The market has Aryna Sabalenka as the clear favourite and that reflects the season story. She’s the higher-ranked, more decorated campaigner with a 47‑9 YTD record and a career ledger that dwarfs Bartunkova’s. Sabalenka’s form list shows three wins in her most recent starts with a lone loss in early August; she’s been largely untroubled in this tournament so far.

Bartunkova is no push‑over: she’s 21‑13 YTD, ranked 34th and she’s coming off a straight‑sets win on Fri, 2 Oct. Her latest results at home include a couple of big scalps earlier in the season and her form sequence reads W, L, W with the most recent outing a win vs Magdalena Frech.

Head‑to‑head is limited but decisive — Sabalenka holds the 1‑0 edge after their June 2026 meeting. That prior result and Sabalenka’s season dominance make the straight win market tilt heavily towards the Belarusian, which is exactly the market narrative here.

The bold play is to pick the underdog on the match‑winner line if you believe Bartunkova’s momentum and local rhythm can stretch Sabalenka. The safer, evidence‑backed call is Sabalenka to win in regulation: higher season win percentages, more titles and the prior H2H win all point the same way.

LINE — who covers the set spread?

The line is listed at 1.5 sets (home gets the start). That structure reflects the gap between the players: Sabalenka is expected to be the one winning by a margin; the board gives Bartunkova a buffer.

From form: both players head in on wins on Fri, 2 Oct, but Sabalenka’s broader season dominance (47 wins vs 9 losses YTD, three titles this year) suggests she’s more likely to clear a 1.5‑set margin than most opponents. Bartunkova’s recent home results are positive, but they don’t match the depth of Sabalenka’s run.

If you want a confident play, the set handicap leans toward Sabalenka covering here — she’s the stronger, more consistent performer across the season and owns the recent head‑to‑head win that suggests she can dictate the match.