Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT at KeyBank Center and the Sabres host the Blue Jackets in a heavyweight-not-really Eastern tilt. If you read nhl tips for value, this one’s got the kind of split you can attack: a short-priced home favourite with a battered recent result versus an away side coming off a statement win.
Buffalo sit above Columbus on the table this season, but recent form and the last-start dynamics make this more interesting than the ladder suggests. We’ll set a firm lean and explain where the real value sits — plus the risks that could wipe it out.
Who will win? Our match-winner call
The short version: back Columbus as the value lean. Buffalo are the market favourite on the board, but the Blue Jackets carry momentum and a defensive edge in their last five that makes the away price attractive as an opinion.
Buffalo’s season looks healthier on paper — they’re listed with a 7-4-3 record and sit higher on the ladder — and they score at 3.07 goals per game with heavy fire from Tage Thompson and Jack Quinn. But their most recent result was a 1–2 home loss to Ottawa, so they arrive wounded after a defeat.
Columbus are 6-7-0 and lower on the ladder, yet they come into this after a 7–2 home win over Colorado as their most recent outing. Their recent form includes two strong home wins in the last five, and their scoring-last-five numbers show they concede slightly less on average than Buffalo (Columbus have a 2.4 avgAgainst in their last five; Buffalo 2.8). That tighter recent defence underpins the case to back the Jackets at the price.
Tipped at $2.10 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Leading scorers
Season goals and assists.
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Tage ThompsonC | 10G 7A |
| Jack QuinnRW | 8G 6A |
| Zach BensonLW | 2G 11A |
Columbus Blue Jackets
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Kent JohnsonC | 7G 6A |
| Charlie CoyleC | 3G 10A |
| Zach WerenskiD | 0G 12A |
Why the value sits with Columbus
Momentum matters here. Columbus’ formLast5Overall includes a 7–2 hammering of Colorado in their most recent start and two home wins in the last five. That’s not flukey — their most recent home results read 7–2 and 2–1, which suggests the Blue Jackets are doing something right on home ice and can carry it on the road.
Both teams average 3.2 goals for across their last five, but Columbus’ last-five defence (2.4) is a tick cleaner than Buffalo’s (2.8). Combined with Columbus’ slightly higher save percentage this season and a recent five-goal performance, there’s a performance-based argument that the market underestimates how dangerous they can be right now.
Risks — why this pick can lose
Don’t forget Buffalo’s firepower: they average 3.07 goals per game this season and have the likes of Tage Thompson and Jack Quinn doing the heavy lifting. Their expected goals and shots-for are solid, and playing at KeyBank Center is a factor; the Sabres are the higher-ranked side and their season stats read better overall.
Special teams and defensive lapses are the key danger for the Jackets. Buffalo allow 3.43 goals per game this season — the higher sample suggests they can concede in bunches — and Columbus’ season record is still sub-.500. This is a pick with upside but it’s not without obvious counterweights.