Blackhawks v Avalanche, Tue 3 Nov: the bold play — Avalanche to keep rolling

Verdict up front: the value sits with Colorado. This one drops at the United Center on Tue 3 Nov, 12:00 pm AEDT and, for nhl predictions that chase momentum and edge, the Avalanche look a clean call.

Chicago rolls into this after a 4–5 loss to Boston on Sun, 1 Nov — they’ve won only once in their past five starts and are dead last on the ladder (rank 31) with a 4-9-0 record. Colorado, by contrast, arrives off a 5–2 home win over Calgary on Sun, 1 Nov and sit much healthier on the table with a 7-5-1 record and 15 points.

WHO WILL WIN?

Make no mistake: the numbers pull one direction. Colorado’s season-wide firepower is obvious — 54 goals for this season and 4.15 goals per game versus Chicago’s 27 goals and 2.08 per game. Over the last five starts Colorado are averaging 4.2 goals while conceding 3.4; Chicago average 2.0 and concede 3.4 in that same sample.

Form profiles back the basic mismatch. Chicago are 1–4 across their last five outings and have lost two of their last three on the road; their most recent result was that 4–5 defeat in Boston. Colorado are 3–2 over the same window and arrive on form after a confidence-boosting 5–2 home win — three of their last five at home have been convincing wins (5–2, 5–2, 6–3).

Goaltending and shot metrics are worth a line of caution but still favour Colorado: Chicago’s season save percentage sits at 0.878 while Colorado’s is 0.887, and Colorado control more shot share by season corsi (52.9% vs 43.9%). If you want a single stat to hang the call on, Colorado’s goalsForPerGame (4.15) dwarfs Chicago’s (2.08).

Defensive holes for Chicago make this look like a one-way game. Chicago are conceding 3.69 goals per game on the season and have an expected goals against of 32.1 across 13 matches, while Colorado’s expected goals profiles and scoring rates indicate they should keep pressure on all night.

Risk checklist: Chicago play at home and will be desperate to stop the slide; their home last-three contains a win and two narrow defeats, so they’re capable of making this competitive. Short-handed or hot-weapon nights from Colorado superstars can be swing factors, and hockey is variance-heavy — the Avalanche edge is strong by the numbers, but not invulnerable.