Columbus Blue Jackets v Tampa Bay Lightning: the bold play for Friday arvo

This Eastern Conference matchup matters for different reasons: Columbus needs a home lift and points after a three-goal loss at Nationwide Arena, while Tampa Bay is hunting consistency on the road. The puck drops Fri 13 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT and the board already favours the visitors.

Our nhl tips start with a clear read: Tampa Bay arrives with markedly better season form and scoring momentum, but Columbus has room to bite back at home. Expect a fast game — both clubs average over three goals against per contest recently — and enough small margins to make this a value hunt.

Limited recent head-to-head history in the pack means we lean on ladder position, recent scoring and last-five form to separate the sides rather than past matchups.

WHO WILL WIN?

Verdict: back Tampa Bay. The market has them on the moneyline at 1.65 while Columbus is available at 2.15 — that price reflects a clear gap in season performance and attacking firepower.

The hard facts favour Tampa Bay. They sit 8th on the ladder with a 11-4-2 record and 24 points; Columbus are 29th with a 7-8-0 record and 14 points. Tampa Bay's season scoring rate is stronger (3.71 goals per game) and their scoring over the last five starts is 3.8 goals per game compared with Columbus's 2.6. When offence decides close games, you take the side creating more chances.

Form nuances cut both ways. Tampa Bay have won three of their last five and are coming off a narrow 3–4 road loss, so they aren't out of gas — they still generate close, high-scoring outcomes. Columbus have been up and down but have been sharper at home recently (three home games in their last five with two wins), averaging 3.3 goals and conceding 2.3 in those home outings. Home-ice gives Columbus a real edge, but it may not be large enough to offset Tampa Bay's superior season profile.

Go-to risks: special teams and goalie performance swing NHL outcomes quickly. Tampa Bay's penalty kill sits at 72.92% vs Columbus's 75.56% — small differences that could matter if the game turns scrappy. Both teams are coming off losses (Columbus L 1–4 v Florida; Tampa Bay L 3–4 v Winnipeg), so edge-of-the-seat desperation could lift intensity in a tight affair.

Market note: Tampa Bay is the short favourite on the win board at 1.65 while Columbus pays 2.15. Take that in the context above — we think the visitors' scoring depth and ladder position justify the short price and present fair value for a confident lean.