The Florida Panthers host the Chicago Blackhawks at Amerant Bank Arena on Thursday 5 November, 11:30 am AEDT, and the value sits firmly with the home side. Florida enter ranked 12th with an 8-4-2 record and 18 points from 14 games; Chicago sit dead last at 31st with a 4-9-1 mark and just nine points. The Panthers are coming off back-to-back wins over Winnipeg — five goals in each — while the Blackhawks arrive on the back of a 4–5 loss to Boston, their fourth defeat in five outings. Chicago have conceded 53 goals this season, the worst defensive record in the league, and Florida should add to that tally in front of their own crowd.
The gulf between these two sides is stark. Florida average 3.14 goals per game and allow just 2.79; Chicago manage 2.21 and leak 3.79. The Panthers' Corsi sits at 56.2 per cent, controlling possession and shot volume; the Blackhawks are underwater at 45 per cent. Florida's power play clicks at 24.24 per cent — Chicago convert at 11.63. The save-percentage split (88.5 for Florida, 87.6 for Chicago) tells the same story: one team is structurally sound, the other is haemorrhaging chances and goals.
Who will win Panthers v Blackhawks?
Florida are priced at $1.40 to win in regulation or overtime, and that number reflects their dominance. The Panthers have won three of their last five overall, scoring 2.8 goals per game across that stretch and allowing the same. Their most recent outing saw them dispatch Winnipeg 5–2 at home, their second straight five-goal haul. Chicago have lost four of their last five, averaging two goals for and 3.4 against. Their lone win in that span was a 2–1 squeeze past the Kings at home; they've been outscored by at least two goals in three of the four losses.
These teams met once already this season — on 26 October in Chicago — and Florida won 3–2. That margin flatters the Blackhawks; the Panthers controlled the game and have since stepped up another gear with their back-to-back demolitions of Winnipeg. Chicago's home form offers no solace either: they've played three of their last five at home, scoring 1.7 per game and conceding 2.7. On the road they're worse still, shipping four or five goals in recent trips to Detroit and Boston.
Matthew Tkachuk leads Florida's offence with four goals and 16 assists, while Brady Tkachuk has chipped in eight goals and seven helpers. Seth Jones quarterbacks from the blue line with two goals and 16 assists. Chicago lean on Connor Bedard (four goals, five assists) and Patrick Kane (one goal, eight assists), but that pair can't mask the defensive chaos behind them. The Blackhawks allow 3.79 goals per game and sit last in expected goals against (34). Florida are conceding just 2.79 per game and have the structure to shut down Chicago's limited attack. Our nhl picks back the Panthers to win comfortably.
Tipped at $1.40 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Leading scorers
Season goals and assists.
Florida Panthers
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Matthew TkachukLW | 4G 16A |
| Seth JonesD | 2G 16A |
| Brady TkachukLW | 8G 7A |
Chicago Blackhawks
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Connor BedardC | 4G 5A |
| Patrick KaneRW | 1G 8A |
| Anton FrondellC | 3G 5A |
Final call
Florida at $1.40 is short, but the price is fair given Chicago's form and defensive shambles. The Panthers are the better team across every metric — offence, defence, special teams, possession — and they've already beaten the Blackhawks once this season. Chicago arrive on a loss, leaking goals on the road, and face a home side coming off ten goals in two games. The bold play is to back Florida and expect them to cover by multiple goals. The Blackhawks' 31st-ranked record and 53 goals conceded tell you everything you need to know: this is a mismatch, and the Panthers should capitalise.