Los Angeles Kings host the New York Islanders at crypto.com Arena on Fri 13 Nov, 2:00 pm AEDT — a clash that looks ordinary on the surface but screams value if you dig past the headline favourite.

If you’re scouring nhl picks for an edge, this is the sort of spot we like: a struggling home side with volatile scoring against an Islander group that defends better on paper. We’ll give you the bold calls up front, the case for them and where the risks live.

Who will win?

The market makes the Kings favourite (Win: Kings 1.75, Islanders 2.00) but the two teams tell different stories. Los Angeles sit 30th on the ladder with a 5-9-2 record and 45 goals for, while New York are 23rd with a 7-6-4 record and 48 goals for.

Season-level rate stats are almost neck-and-neck offensively — Kings 2.81 goals per game, Islanders 2.82 — but defensively the Islanders look steadier: New York allow 2.94 goals per game versus Los Angeles 3.44. The Islanders’ penalty kill (86.67%) dwarfs the Kings’ 66.04% and that special-teams gap matters in tight games.

Recent form is ugly for both: the Kings’ most recent result was a 0–3 home loss to Nashville, while the Islanders’ most recent result was a 2–3 road loss to San Jose. Across the last five, Los Angeles are averaging 3.4 goals for and 3.6 against; New York are averaging 2.6 for and 4.0 against — both sides have conceded plenty lately.

Last meeting (Oct 2026) was a 3–2 Kings win, so there’s limited recent H2H history and no blowouts to lean on. Market smell-check: Kings are the money-line favourite, but this is a case where the market’s short-price favourite (home) can be avoided in favour of more forgiving structures — the puck line and the total look the most attractive angles.

Markets
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.

Odds subject to change. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Puck line (handicap) — where the value sits

The posted puck line is Kings -1.5 (home) with the away +1.5 available. That means an Islanders +1.5 ticket buys you a safety net if the home side squeezes a one-goal win.

Use the recent margins to judge the line: the Kings’ average win margin in the last five is 3.0 and average loss margin 2.3; the Islanders’ avg win margin is 1.0 and avg loss margin 2.0. Given New York’s stronger defensive metrics across the season and Los Angeles’ higher goals-against rate, the -1.5 for the Kings is riskier than the money line suggests.

The puck line gives the Islanders room to be competitive even if they don’t grab the upset outright — that safety is the bold play we prefer here.

Puck Line
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Los Angeles Kings -1.5$2.80Our tipNew York Islanders +1.5$1.40
Solid leanOur tip: New York Islanders +1.5. Islanders defend better overall (2.94 GA/game vs Kings 3.44) and the +1.5 cushion buys upside if this turns into a tight, one-goal contest.

Tipped at $1.40 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Line cover (form)

Cover rate applies this match's live spread to recent completed scores — not a season ATS record.

Los Angeles Kings-1.5last 5

Cover rate20%1/5
Avg margin (-0.2)avg -0.2vs 1.5
-5.45.5

New York Islanders+1.5last 5

Cover rate60%3/5
20%Cover % (form)60%
H2H cover (Los Angeles Kings -1.5)0%0/1

Season goal difference per game, set against this match's puck line. The marker is the margin that covers.

Los Angeles Kingsavg -0.8vs 1.5
-2.33
New York Islandersavg 0vs -1.5
-2.33
-0.8Goal diff / game0
-0.1Expected goal diff / game-0.1
51%5-on-5 shot share49.8%

Total goals — the over/under case

Total Goals is set at 5.5 goals. Look at the last-five scoring stacks: the Kings are averaging 3.4 goals per game across their last five and the Islanders 2.6, which combines to roughly 6.0 goals — above the 5.5 line.

Both sides have been conceding at a higher rate recently (Kings avgAgainst 3.6, Islanders avgAgainst 4.0), so ceiling games are probable. The season-level figures are close to the same conclusion: combined goals-per-game sits around the mid-5s. We lean Over 5.5 as the smarter, value-led play.

Total Goals
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Our tipOver 5.5$1.70Under 5.5$2.10
Solid leanOur tip: Over 5.5. Kings (3.4) and Islanders (2.6) are averaging ~6.0 combined goals across their last five games, which leans the price toward overs.

Tipped at $1.75 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Total goals

Combined score from recent completed games · marker shows live line 5.5.

Los Angeles Kings games (n=5)avg 7vs 5.5
111
New York Islanders games (n=5)avg 6.6vs 5.5
111
H2H meetings (n=1)avg 5vs 5.5
111

Hit rate vs 5.5

Los Angeles Kingsn=5
Over 60%Under 40%
New York Islandersn=5
Over 60%Under 40%
H2Hn=1
Over 0%Under 100%
3.4Avg goals for (form)2.6

Season scoring rates per game. Marker is the live total of 5.5.

Both attacksavg 5.7vs 5.5
2.78
Los Angeles Kings attack vs New York Islanders defenceavg 5.7vs 5.5
2.78
New York Islanders attack vs Los Angeles Kings defenceavg 6.5vs 5.5
2.78
Expected goals combinedavg 4.2vs 5.5
2.78
28Shots for / game25.6
2.76Season goals for / game2.94

Same Game Multi ideas

If you want a single-ticket flavour, the board includes several priced SGM combos we like to eyeball. Examples on the board: "Kings to win & Alex Laferriere to score a goal" at 4.5, and the larger longshot "Islanders to win, Simon Holmstrom to score last goal & Islanders -0.5 puck line in the 1st period" at 29.

Those combos stack match result bias with player-moment outcomes and let you chase extra upside without inventing legs yourself.