Sun 8 Nov, 1:00 pm AEDT at crypto.com Arena — the Kings and Penguins collide in a contest that smells of goals and a chance to back a home side riding a surge. This is one of our sharper nhl picks: we’re backing the home heat, leaning into a puck-line edge and expecting the total to clear 6.5 goals.

Why it matters: both teams sit near the bottom of their conferences but this match presents clear contrasts — Los Angeles have been lighting the lamp at home, while Pittsburgh arrive scarred by a slide. We’ll lay out the case, the downside and where the value sits.

Who will win?

The market makes Los Angeles the favourite (Win Inc. OT). It’s no soft read: the Kings sit 29th on the ladder (5-7-2) while Pittsburgh are 30th (5-9-2), so form and position point to a tight edge for the home side.

Offence and recent scoring back that lean. Los Angeles average 3.07 goals per game across the season and have produced 4.4 goals per game across their last five starts; they’ve been particularly heavy at home, averaging 5.0 goals in their last three home outings. Pittsburgh’s recent scoring has dropped — 2.8 goals per game across their last five — and they’ve conceded 4.0 on average in those games.

Momentum is stark: Los Angeles arrive coming off a 7–2 win, while Pittsburgh’s most recent outing was a 2–6 loss. That swing in form and confidence matters in tight games. The board favours the Kings and the pack data give us a sensible, opinionated lean toward the home side.

Win (Inc. OT)
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Our tipLos Angeles Kings$1.80Pittsburgh Penguins$1.95
Strong leanOur tip: Los Angeles Kings. Kings have the clearer momentum and home scoring form (5.0 goals in their last three home games) while Pittsburgh arrive on a losing run; backing the home favourite is a confident, evidence-based lean.

Tipped at $1.75 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.

2.76Season avg goals for3.11
3.53Season avg goals against3.47
29%Season win rate37%
3.4Last 5 avg goals for2.6
40%Last-five win rate20%
35.3%Points percentage42.1%
22.4%Power play21.1%
66.1%Penalty kill78.9%
87.2%Save percentage87.7%

Leading scorers

Season goals and assists.

Los Angeles Kings

PlayerG-A
Artemi PanarinLW8G 11A
Adrian KempeLW6G 7A
Brandt ClarkeD3G 9A

Pittsburgh Penguins

PlayerG-A
Erik KarlssonD3G 16A
Evgeni MalkinC6G 11A
Thomas NovakC7G 7A

Puck line: is the -1.5 the bold play?

The house line is Los Angeles -1.5 goals on the puck line. This isn’t reckless — Los Angeles have been a heavier scorer in home games (last three home games: 5.0 goals per game) and their average winning margin in the last five is 3 goals, which aligns with overcoming a -1.5 start.

Conversely, Pittsburgh’s recent losses have seen them shipped multiple goals (their avgAgainst over the last five is 4.0, with average loss margins larger than their wins). If the Kings bring the same bite they showed in their 7–2 performance, the puck line is a value route for the brave — but it’s not without risk if Pittsburgh tighten defensively.

Puck Line
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Our tipLos Angeles Kings -1.5$2.80Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5$1.40
Solid leanOur tip: Los Angeles Kings -1.5. Kings’ average win margins and strong recent home scoring suggest they can cover a -1.5 puck line if they replicate their recent attacking output; it’s a value play for the bold.

Tipped at $2.80 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Line cover (form)

Cover rate applies this match's live spread to recent completed scores — not a season ATS record.

Los Angeles Kings-1.5last 5

Cover rate20%1/5
Avg margin (-0.2)avg -0.2vs 1.5
-5.65.5

Pittsburgh Penguins+1.5last 5

Cover rate60%3/5
20%Cover % (form)60%

Season goal difference per game, set against this match's puck line. The marker is the margin that covers.

Los Angeles Kingsavg -0.8vs 1.5
-2.33
Pittsburgh Penguinsavg -0.4vs -1.5
-2.33
-0.8Goal diff / game-0.4
-0.1Expected goal diff / game0.2
51%5-on-5 shot share53.4%

Total goals — over or under 6.5?

The total is 6.5 goals. Look at the scoring evidence: Los Angeles have averaged 4.4 goals in their last five starts and Pittsburgh 2.8 — those figures pushed together point above 6.5 on form alone. Los Angeles’ recent home outputs (5.0 a game across the last three) further nudge this market toward the over.

Risk check: Pittsburgh can flash offence, but their last four results are all losses and their defence has been leaky. If the Kings reproduce heavy scoring early, the over looks the more persuasive play from a value-hunting angle.

Total Goals
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Our tipOver 6.5$1.90Under 6.5$1.83
Solid leanOur tip: Over 6.5. Los Angeles’ 4.4 goals-per-game in their last five plus Pittsburgh’s 2.8 creates an above-line scoring profile; recent heavy results push us toward the over.

Tipped at $1.90 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Total goals

Combined score from recent completed games · marker shows live line 6.5.

Los Angeles Kings games (n=5)avg 7vs 6.5
2.511
Pittsburgh Penguins games (n=5)avg 6.8vs 6.5
2.511

Hit rate vs 6.5

Los Angeles Kingsn=5
Over 60%Under 40%
Pittsburgh Penguinsn=5
Over 60%Under 40%
3.4Avg goals for (form)2.6

Season scoring rates per game. Marker is the live total of 6.5.

Both attacksavg 5.9vs 6.5
2.98.1
Los Angeles Kings attack vs Pittsburgh Penguins defenceavg 6.2vs 6.5
2.98.1
Pittsburgh Penguins attack vs Los Angeles Kings defenceavg 6.6vs 6.5
2.98.1
Expected goals combinedavg 4.4vs 6.5
2.98.1
28Shots for / game27.7
2.76Season goals for / game3.11

Same Game Multi options

Same Game Multi is available for this fixture and the board already lists a handful of priced combos. Examples from the pack include:

• Kings -1.5 puck line & Corey Perry to score a goal — price 8.5

• Penguins -1.5 puck line, Sidney Crosby to score a goal & Penguins to win the 1st period — price 8