Montreal Canadiens host Minnesota Wild at Bell Centre on Wednesday 11 November, 11:00 am AEDT, in a contest between two sides sitting inside the top five of their respective conferences. The Wild hold second in the Western Conference with a 12-3-4 record and 28 points; the Canadiens sit fifth in the East at 11-3-3 for 25 points. Minnesota's defensive record — 2.26 goals against per game — is the sharper number on the season, but Montreal's recent run at home tells a different story.
The Canadiens are coming off a 4–2 road win over Toronto and have won four of their last five overall, posting 4.6 goals per game across that stretch. Minnesota, meanwhile, is coming off a 3–4 home loss to Tampa Bay and has dropped two of five despite averaging 3.8 goals for and 2.4 against in the sample. The market has the sides virtually level — Montreal slight favourites at home — but the value sits with the Canadiens when you weigh recent form and venue.
Who will win?
Montreal's last five at Bell Centre shows three matches: two wins by a single goal and one loss by the same margin. They've averaged 4.7 goals for and 4.3 against on home ice in that sample, with both victories coming in 5–4 finals. The Canadiens have won four of their last five overall — including road wins in Dallas (5–2) and Toronto (4–2) — and have shown they can score in bunches when the game opens up.
Minnesota's last five overall includes three wins and two losses, with the three victories coming by margins of three, two, and four goals. The Wild have averaged three goals against in their last five, but two of those contests were one-goal defeats at home. On the road in their last five, Minnesota picked up wins in Philadelphia (4–2) and Washington (5–1), but the Bell Centre presents a tougher test against a side that has scored five goals in three of its last five starts.
Limited recent head-to-head history between these clubs means the case turns on current form and venue. Montreal has the scoring rate to trouble Minnesota's defensive structure, and the Canadiens' ability to win tight games at home — both recent 5–4 results came against quality opposition — suggests they can edge this one in regulation or overtime. The market has Montreal at slight favourites, and that's where the value sits when you back recent home form against a Wild side that has conceded four goals in two of its last three.
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Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Leading scorers
Season goals and assists.
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Cole CaufieldRW | 12G 6A |
| Lane HutsonD | 3G 15A |
| Nick SuzukiC | 7G 9A |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Kirill KaprizovLW | 17G 18A |
| Quinn HughesD | 6G 22A |
| Matt BoldyLW | 10G 11A |
Final call
Montreal's four wins in five starts, combined with a home record that shows they can score at will, makes the Canadiens the bold play at Bell Centre. Minnesota's defensive numbers over the season are superior, but recent form shows cracks — two one-goal losses in the last five, both at home, and a Tampa Bay defeat in the most recent outing. The Canadiens offer value at home against a side that has travelled well but hasn't faced an attack averaging 4.6 goals per game in its last five. For those hunting our nhl picks this week, Montreal at home is the call that stands up under scrutiny.