Nashville Predators vs New York Islanders: where the value sits

The Nashville Predators host the New York Islanders at Bridgestone Arena on Wednesday, 28 October at 11:00 am AEDT, and the market's got this one wrong. Nashville sit 26th on the ladder with a 3-3-3 record, while the Islanders occupy 16th at 5-3-2, but the home side's price doesn't reflect where their form is trending right now.

The Predators are coming off a dominant 6–2 victory over Colorado Avalanche on Monday, their most convincing performance of the season. The Islanders, meanwhile, arrive in Tennessee licking their wounds after a 3–6 loss to Dallas Stars in their last outing. The value sits with the home side at Bridgestone Arena, where Nashville have shown they can light the lamp when things click.

Why Nashville will win

The Predators' season numbers don't tell the full story. Yes, they're averaging 2.56 goals per game and conceding 3.11, but their last five overall shows they're averaging 3.0 goals for and 3.2 against — competitive output when they get going. More importantly, at Bridgestone Arena in their last three home starts, they've put up 4.3 goals per game while allowing just 2.3. That's a side finding their groove on home ice.

Nashville's recent form reads two wins, three losses across their last five, but context matters. That 6–2 demolition of Colorado on Monday came after a 5–2 win over St Louis Blues on 18 October, both at home. The losses — narrow defeats to Pittsburgh (2–3) and San Jose (2–3), plus a horror show in Boston (0–6) — came on the road or in tight contests. When they've had the crowd behind them at Bridgestone, they've averaged a 3.5-goal winning margin.

The Islanders sit higher on the ladder at 16th, but their 2.9 goals per game and 2.2 conceded across the season masks some vulnerability. Their last five overall shows 2.6 for and 2.8 against, and they've dropped three of those five, including that 3–6 hammering in Dallas. Their two wins in that stretch — 3–2 over Anaheim and 4–1 against Toronto — were both solid efforts, but neither opponent is setting the league alight. New York's average loss margin of 1.7 goals in their last five tells you they can be gotten at.

Limited recent head-to-head history between these two makes reading past matchups difficult, but the ladder positions and current odds don't align with what the form guide suggests. Nashville are priced as slight underdogs despite being at home and coming off a statement win. The Islanders' save percentage of 0.914 is superior to Nashville's 0.894, but the Predators' power play is clicking at 28.57 percent compared to New York's 20 percent — a meaningful edge if special teams come into play.

The case for the over

This one should be open. Nashville have shown they can score in bunches at home — that 4.3 goals per game average across their last three at Bridgestone Arena is proof — while the Islanders are averaging 2.6 goals in their last five overall. Combined, you're looking at sides capable of pushing the scoreboard when things flow.

The Predators' defensive numbers are the concern for under backers. They're conceding 3.11 goals per game across the season and 3.2 in their last five, though that drops to 2.3 at home in their recent sample. New York's 2.8 goals against in their last five suggests they can be breached, and Nashville's attacking firepower — led by Steven Stamkos (4 goals, 6 assists), Roman Josi (1 goal, 8 assists), and Filip Forsberg (1 goal, 7 assists) — has the weapons to exploit it.

The Islanders' road form in their last five includes that 3–6 loss in Dallas and a 1–2 defeat in Ottawa, both away fixtures where they struggled to contain opposition offence. Nashville's Corsi percentage of 44.8 isn't inspiring, but New York's 53.5 suggests they'll generate chances. If both sides bring their offensive games, the scoreboard will tick over. The bold play is backing goals.