Flyers vs Blue Jackets: the bold play on the road underdog

Two sides languishing in the basement of their respective divisions meet at Xfinity Mobile Arena on Wednesday, 28 October at 10:00 am AEDT. Philadelphia Flyers, 25th overall with a 3-6-3 record, host Columbus Blue Jackets, dead last at 31st with 3-5-0. Identical points percentages — both .375 — but wildly different paths into this one.

The Flyers stumbled last start, coughing up a 4–5 loss to Anaheim at home on Sunday despite pushing three goals across. Columbus, meanwhile, scraped past Vegas 2–1 in a grind-it-out win on the same day, their second victory in three outings. That momentum edge tilts the ice, and the market has missed it — we're leaning into the visitors at a price that doesn't reflect their recent resilience.

Who will win?

Philadelphia's home form has been a mixed bag: three of their last five overall were played at Xfinity Mobile Arena, yielding two wins and that Sunday slip against the Ducks. Across their last five starts they've averaged 2.8 goals for and 2.2 against, winning by an average of 1.7 goals when they get up and losing by one when they don't. That 4–5 defeat to Anaheim snapped a three-game win streak — victories over Buffalo, Colorado, and Ottawa — but the defensive cracks are widening. Season-long, they're leaking 3.0 goals per game and sitting at a 90.6 percent save rate, numbers that speak to a side under siege more often than not.

Columbus arrive having scraped together back-to-back wins in their last two home starts — the 2–1 edge over Vegas and a 1–0 shutout of the Rangers on 18 October. Their last five overall have been a rollercoaster: two wins, three losses, averaging just 1.8 goals for and conceding 3.2. When they lose, it's ugly — an average margin of three goals, bookended by a 2–6 thrashing from Toronto and a 3–7 hammering by Florida. But when they win, they're clinical, sneaking over the line by a single goal each time.

The Blue Jackets' defensive numbers are worse on paper — 86.9 percent save rate, 3.63 goals against per game — but they've tightened up in patches, evidenced by that shutout of the Rangers and the stingy effort against Vegas. Philadelphia's attack, led by Matvei Michkov's six goals and Trevor Zegras's eight points, has firepower, but Columbus have shown they can suffocate opponents when the game plan clicks. Charlie Coyle's playmaking (seven assists) and Cole Sillinger's balanced six-point ledger give them enough offence to keep the Flyers honest.

Limited recent head-to-head history means we're reading the room from ladder positions and current form. Both sides sit on .375, but Columbus carry the psychological edge of a last-start win, while Philadelphia are licking wounds from a home loss. The market has Philadelphia at 1.85, Columbus at 1.95 — a narrow gap that underestimates the visitors' ability to grind out results when the stakes are low-scoring. We're backing Columbus to snatch this one on the road.

The risks

Philadelphia's home ice advantage is real — they've won two of their last three at Xfinity Mobile Arena, and Michkov's six goals lead the team's scoring. If the Flyers rediscover the attacking rhythm that saw them rattle off three straight wins before Sunday's stumble, Columbus will struggle to keep pace. The Blue Jackets' road form is untested in this sample, and their defensive save percentage of 86.9 is the worst in the league. A hot start from Philadelphia could blow this open early.

Columbus also lean heavily on low-scoring margins — both wins in their last five came by a single goal. If the game opens up, their thin offensive output (1.8 goals per game in the last five) may not be enough. For those looking to refine their nhl picks, the Flyers' superior expected goals numbers — 19.1 for versus Columbus's 16.7 — suggest they're creating better chances even when results don't always follow. But we're betting Columbus can stifle and steal, not dominate.