Devils v Ducks: the bold play at Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils host Anaheim Ducks at Prudential Center on Friday, 23 October at 10:00 am AEDT, and the market's handed us a gift. Both sides sit equal 23rd and 24th on identical 4-4-0 records, but their trajectories couldn't look more different. The Devils are coming off a 4–3 win over Colorado Avalanche at home on Wednesday, while the Ducks limp in on a four-game losing streak capped by a 2–3 defeat to the Islanders. The home side sits at 1.65 to win, and that's where the bold caller plants the flag.

New Jersey's last five overall reads three wins from five — they've scored 3.8 goals per game while conceding 3.2, and their average winning margin sits at 2.7 goals. At home the Devils are two from three this season, averaging four goals scored and 2.7 against across those three outings at Prudential Center, with their two wins coming by an average of 3.5 goals. That 7–1 demolition of the Rangers on 16 October stands out, but even the tight 4–3 result against Colorado shows they can grind out results when the goals dry up. Jack Hughes leads the offence with nine points (two goals, seven assists), supported by Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier, and the Devils hold a 63 per cent Corsi share — they're controlling possession and territory.

Anaheim's form is brutal: four straight losses, all by margins of one to three goals, with just one win in their last five. They're averaging 2.4 goals for and 3.6 against over that stretch, and on the road they've dropped their last two by a combined 2–8 scoreline. Their penalty kill sits at 79.31 per cent (solid), and Leo Carlsson and Beckett Sennecke provide offensive spark, but the Ducks' 0.879 save percentage and minus-two goal differential tell the story of a side leaking chances. Limited recent head-to-head history means we lean on current form, and that skews heavily toward the home side.

Devils to deliver at home

The match-winner market has New Jersey at 1.65, Anaheim at 2.25, and the value sits firmly with the Devils. They've won two of three at Prudential Center this season, both by comfortable margins, and their underlying numbers — 3.13 goals for per game, 20.69 per cent power play, 23.7 expected goals for across eight games — suggest the offence is clicking. The Devils' Corsi percentage of 63 means they're dominating shot share, and while their penalty kill needs work at 69.57 per cent, they're facing a Ducks outfit that's managed just 2.4 goals per game over its last five.

Anaheim's four-game skid isn't a blip; it's a pattern. They've scored exactly two goals in each of those defeats, and on the road they've been carved up by the Rangers (2–5) and Islanders (2–3) in back-to-back nights. The Ducks' 0.879 team save percentage and 17.2 expected goals against suggest defensive fragility, and New Jersey's top line — Hughes, Bratt, Hischier — will exploit it. The Devils' ability to score in clusters (seven against the Rangers, five at Detroit) gives them multiple gears, and at home they've averaged four goals across three starts.

For our nhl picks, backing the home side at 1.65 is the bold play. The Devils have the form, the venue edge, and the offensive firepower to dispatch a Ducks side that's struggling to keep pucks out and can't string wins together. New Jersey's two-from-three record at Prudential Center, combined with Anaheim's woeful road form, makes this a straightforward call.

Final word

The Devils' home advantage, superior possession metrics, and recent win over Colorado contrast sharply with Anaheim's four-game losing run and porous defence. New Jersey's depth scoring and Corsi dominance should overwhelm a Ducks outfit that's managed just two goals in each of its last four outings. The 1.65 price underrates the gap between these two sides right now, and the bold caller expects the Devils to bank the two points without drama.