Senators vs Sharks: Ottawa the bold play at Canadian Tire Centre

The Ottawa Senators welcome the San Jose Sharks to Canadian Tire Centre on Friday, 23 October at 10:00 am AEDT, and the market has this one tighter than the ladder suggests. Ottawa sit 10th with a 6-3-0 record and twelve points from nine games; San Jose are 19th at 4-4-1, five wins behind over the same sample. The Senators are $1.60 to collect the two points, the Sharks $2.35, and we're backing the home side to get the job done.

Ottawa come off a 1–3 loss to Philadelphia on the road last Sunday — their first defeat in four starts. San Jose arrive with momentum: they took down Montreal 4–3 away on Wednesday, snapping a two-game slide. The Sharks have played their entire last five on the road, going 2-3 across that stretch, and now face a Senators outfit that has won two of three at home this month.

Who will win?

The ladder tells most of the story. Ottawa have banked twelve points and boast a .667 points percentage; San Jose sit nine points deep at .500, three full wins adrift. The Senators average 2.44 goals for per game and concede 2.56; the Sharks match that 2.44 output but leak 3.44 at the other end — a full goal-per-game gap in defensive performance.

Across their last five starts, Ottawa have posted 2.4 goals for and 2.8 against, winning three and losing two. San Jose's last five shows 2.8 for and 3.6 against, also with three wins but a heavier bleed at the back. The Senators win by an average of 1.7 goals when they get up; the Sharks by just one. When Ottawa lose, it's by 3.5; San Jose by two. That variance speaks to Ottawa's ability to control tight games and San Jose's propensity to get blown out when things go south.

The only previous meeting on record came on Wednesday, 14 October, when the Sharks edged the Senators 3–2 in Ottawa. That result sits in both clubs' last-five sequences: a one-goal home loss for the Senators, a narrow road win for the Sharks. It's the lone data point in this season's head-to-head, and it keeps the line honest, but it doesn't override nine games of form. Ottawa have since beaten the Islanders and Devils; San Jose took a three-goal hiding from Boston at home in that same window.

At Canadian Tire Centre, the Senators are 2-1 across their last three: wins over the Islanders (2–1) and Predators (3–2), plus that 2–7 hammering by St Louis. The loss to the Blues is an outlier — a five-goal margin that skews the home averages — but the two wins were both decided by a single goal, suggesting Ottawa can grind out results on home ice when the margins are fine. San Jose's only home start in the last five was that 3–6 defeat to Boston; everything else has been away, where they've gone 2-3.

The market has Ottawa at $1.60. That's shorter than the ladder gap alone might suggest, likely respecting the Sharks' road form and that head-to-head win two weeks ago. But we're comfortable laying the price. The Senators have the better record, the better defence, and home advantage against a side that has played five straight on the road and concedes 3.44 per game. This is where our nhl tips lean: Ottawa to collect the regulation or overtime win.

The risks

San Jose arrive with a win under their belt and have shown they can score — Macklin Celebrini leads their offence with three goals and eight assists, and the power play clicks at 20 per cent, well above Ottawa's 12.82. If the Sharks draw penalties and convert, they can keep this tight. The head-to-head result is fresh, too: San Jose won here a fortnight ago, and while it was only by a goal, it proves they can take points off Ottawa on this ice.

The Senators' last start was a loss, their save percentage sits at .903 compared to San Jose's .877, and that 2–7 home defeat to St Louis shows they can leak goals when the structure breaks down. If Ottawa don't show up defensively, the Sharks have the firepower to punish them. But the weight of form, ladder position, and defensive metrics still points to the home side, and we're backing them to deliver.