Friday 13 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT at Canadian Tire Centre — this one matters for two clubs clustered in the mid-table. The Avalanche arrive as the market favourite but the bold play here, in our view, is the home side. Both teams are coming off wins, so expect a competitive, high-energy opening to the weekend slate.
Quick snapshot: Ottawa sits 9th on the ladder with 23 points and has been hitting the scoreboard at 3.11 goals per game, while Colorado are 10th with 22 points and a much louder attack at 4.0 goals per game. For the value hunter, the question is whether Ottawa’s recent form and defensive numbers are being underpriced.
WHO WILL WIN?
The market currently shows Colorado as favourite (away) and Ottawa at $2.20 on the board; we think the value sits with the Senators. Ottawa’s last five read W, W, W, L, W and they’re coming off a win on Sun, 8 Nov (W 4–2 v Utah Mammoth) — that momentum matters in a short NHL cycle.
Compare season profiles: Colorado bring the flash — 72 goals for (4.0 per game) and a strong power-play (23.33%) led by the team’s top creators, while Ottawa are steadier offensively (56 goals, 3.11 per game) and concede slightly fewer in their last five (Ottawa avgAgainst 2.4 vs Colorado 2.8). Save percentages are almost identical (Ottawa 0.89, Colorado 0.888), so this looks like an offence-versus-structure clash.
Form tilt and home footing are our edge: Ottawa’s formLast5Overall is superior on paper (four wins from five) and they’ve won their two most recent home outings. There’s limited recent head-to-head history in the pack to lean on, so we’re backing the short-term form swing and the defensive gap in last-five numbers rather than long-term rivalry trends.
Tipped at $2.20 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Leading scorers
Season goals and assists.
Ottawa Senators
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Tim StützleLW | 10G 14A |
| Drake BathersonC | 10G 9A |
| Shane PintoC | 9G 8A |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnonC | 10G 20A |
| Martin NečasC | 10G 14A |
| Cale MakarD | 5G 18A |
Why the Senators?
Back Ottawa for value: the $2.20 price gives a reasonable buffer against Colorado’s oomph. Ottawa have been scoring 3.6 goals on average across their last five and only concede 2.4, which suggests they can contain Colorado’s attack enough to win a tight game at home.
The Senators also have attacking depth on paper — Tim Stützle and Drake Batherson appear among the lead scorers in the pack — and that secondary scoring can swing a one-goal game. For value seekers and nhl tips hunters, a home-side lean here is a contrarian but justified stance.
Risks — why you might prefer Colorado
This isn’t a one-sided argument. Colorado’s season goalsFor (72) and 4.0 goals per game are outstanding and their power-play conversion (23.33%) can change the scoreboard fast. If Colorado bring their A-game offensively they can overwhelm a tight Ottawa defence.
The clubs are close on ladder points (Ottawa 23, Colorado 22) and both are coming off wins, so a tip on either side is viable. We’re declaring a value play on Ottawa, but the margin for error is slim — expect a tight game where special teams and goaltending decide the winner.