This one matters for momentum: New Jersey Devils fly into Scotiabank Arena to face the Toronto Maple Leafs on Mon 9 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT. Both clubs have potent attacking talent and the matchup stacks two volatile defensive units against high-scoring forwards.
Toronto sit lower on the ladder (rank 17) and are coming off a 2–3 home loss to Utah — they haven’t been consistent across their last five. New Jersey are in clearer rhythm, winners in four of their past five and boasting better overall table position (rank 8).
We’re calling the two decisive plays up front — backing New Jersey on the win board and hunting value in the goals market. This is a classic value-hunt game: aggressive attack meets leaky defence and the market hasn’t fully priced the scoring risk.
Who will win?
For our nhl predictions the value sits with the Devils to take the match-winner market. New Jersey arrive with 11 wins from 16 games (rank 8) and have won four of their last five, including a most recent 5–4 home win over St Louis.
Toronto’s season has been patchy: 8 wins from 17 (rank 17) and they’re coming off that 2–3 home loss to Utah. The Leafs score at a strong clip — 3.65 goals per game season average and a 3.8 scoring average across their last five — but their goals against is also high (3.24 season; 3.4 last five).
New Jersey combine a higher recent scoring rate (4.2 goals per game over their last five) with a steadier defence this season (2.94 goals against per game). The board backs the Devils as favourite (Win odds: away 1.7, home 2.1) and that aligns with form and ladder position, so we’ll side with the road team but stress it’s a play, not a promise.
Tipped at $1.70 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Leading scorers
Season goals and assists.
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Auston MatthewsC | 12G 17A |
| William NylanderRW | 11G 11A |
| Jack RoslovicC | 9G 11A |
New Jersey Devils
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Jack HughesC | 10G 17A |
| Jesper BrattW | 4G 16A |
| Arseny GritsyukRW | 8G 8A |
Puck line — margin and cover angle
The official puck line is 1.5 goals (home line = Toronto +1.5, away line = New Jersey -1.5). Home price on the puck line is the shorter quote, away is longer.
Use the recent margins to frame a cover: Toronto’s average win margin in their last five is 3.5 goals but their average loss margin is just 1.7, showing they tend to lose narrowly. New Jersey’s recent win margin is 2.3 while their average loss margin is 3.0, indicating when they win they do so by multiple goals.
If you want a bolder play the Devils -1.5 offers upside given their recent multi-goal wins, but it’s a riskier line — Toronto’s +1.5 protects the home side against a one-goal defeat.
Odds subject to change. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Total goals — where the value sits
Total is set at 6.5 goals (Total Goals). The book quotes over 1.95 and under 1.80.
Combine the teams’ recent scoring: Toronto average 3.8 goals across their last five, New Jersey 4.2 — that’s an 8.0-goal combined recent scoring rate, well above the 6.5 line. Toronto concede 3.4 in that sample and New Jersey concede 3.0.
Given both sides can score freely and both have conceded at times, the over looks like the value play here. It’s the bold call: expect end-to-end hockey and goals to pile up.
Tipped at $1.95 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Total goals
Combined score from recent completed games · marker shows live line 6.5.
Hit rate vs 6.5
Season scoring rates per game. Marker is the live total of 6.5.