Verdict up front: the value sits with St Louis Blues to beat the market here, and the match looks primed to finish under the quoted 6.5 goals when the puck drops at Delta Center on Fri 13 Nov, 1:00 pm AEDT. If you want bold nhl tips, backing the Blues and a lower-scoring game is the angle we favour.
This is a clash of form vs season numbers — Utah sit higher on the ladder and score at a stronger rate across the year, but recent form and last-start trends give the Blues a real shot. We run through the case for both sides, the puck-line dynamics and why the total is tempting under the board number.
Who will win? The match-winner case
Utah Mammoth arrive with the stronger season profile: they sit higher on the ladder (rank 16) and average 3.5 goals per game across the year, plus a potent power play (37.1%). That season-level firepower explains why they’re favourites on the board.
But form tells a different story. Utah have lost four of their last five starts and their most recent result was a 2–4 loss at Ottawa, while St Louis are coming off a 3–2 home win over Detroit. Over the last five games both teams are only producing 2.8 goals per game on offence, so recent attacking output is suppressed for both sides.
Special teams and goaltending swing this toward St Louis as a value call. The Blues have a markedly better penalty kill (84.78% v Utah’s 69.64%) and a higher save percentage (.894 v .863), which matters in tight, low-scoring affairs. Taken together with Utah’s recent run of defeats and higher goals-against over the last five (Utah concede 4.2 per game v St Louis 3.4), the upside for an away result is clear — it’s the bold play here.
Tipped at $2.00 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Leading scorers
Season goals and assists.
Utah Mammoth
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Clayton KellerC | 5G 20A |
| Logan CooleyC | 11G 10A |
| Nick SchmaltzC | 9G 11A |
St Louis Blues
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Jimmy SnuggerudRW | 10G 4A |
| Robert ThomasC | 3G 11A |
| Philip BrobergD | 4G 9A |
Puck line: who covers ±1.5 goals?
The posted puck line is Utah -1.5 (home) / St Louis +1.5 (away). Utah’s season scoring gives them the right to be favourites, but their recent margins suggest -1.5 is a stretch.
Use the last-five margins as a reality check: Utah’s average win margin is 1.0 and average loss margin is 2.0; St Louis’s average win margin is 1.0 and average loss margin 1.7. Those numbers show most outcomes have been one-goal games — the -1.5 line asks Utah to win by more than their typical margin, so the safer, lower-risk framing favours the +1.5 cushion for the Blues.
Odds subject to change. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Total goals: Over/Under 6.5
The total is 6.5 goals. Look at the last-five scoring rates: Utah and St Louis each average 2.8 goals for in their most recent five, which combines to roughly 5.6 goals per game across those samples — well under the 6.5 line.
Utah’s defence has leaked more in recent outings (avg against 4.2) but St Louis have tightened up (avg against 3.4) and their strong penalty kill plus better save percentage make a lower combined score believable. On balance the numbers nudge us to the under rather than a high-scoring shootout.
Tipped at $1.70 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Total goals
Combined score from recent completed games · marker shows live line 6.5.
Hit rate vs 6.5
Season scoring rates per game. Marker is the live total of 6.5.
Same Game Multi
Same Game Multi combos are available for this fixture and give alternative ways to chase value. Two of the priced combos on the board exactly as listed are:
• "Mammoth +0.5 puck line in the 1st period & Jimmy Snuggerud to score a goal" at price 4.1
• "Mammoth to win, Dylan Guenther to score a goal & Logan Cooley to score a goal" at price 8