Winnipeg Jets v New Jersey Devils: the bold play · where the value sits

Verdict up front: the value sits with the New Jersey Devils to back up their red-hot form and leave Canada Life Centre with two points on Wed 11 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT.

This is a classic form-versus-revival clash — the Jets have steadied with recent home wins, but the Devils arrive unbeaten in five and look the stronger side on paper. We lay out why backing New Jersey is our bold play, then run the risks.

Who will win? The market and the bold call

Make no mistake: New Jersey have been the better team all season. The Devils sit 8th on the ladder with a 12-5-0 record and 24 points, while Winnipeg are 25th on 6-8-3 and 15 points — that gap matters over a 17-game sample.

Offence and defence both favour the visitors. New Jersey average 3.59 goals per game and have averaged 4.6 goals for and 2.6 against across their last five; Winnipeg manage 2.65 goals per game and their last-five split is 3.4 for and 4.2 against. That last-five scoring snapshot strongly leans toward the Devils.

Form tells a similar story: New Jersey are on a five-game winning run (most recent: W 4–0 v Toronto Maple Leafs on Mon, 9 Nov), while Winnipeg have won their last three after an earlier pair of losses (most recent: W 4–3 v Tampa Bay Lightning on Mon, 9 Nov). Both teams are coming off wins, but the Devils' streak is cleaner and more sustained.

Special-teams and peripheral metrics are scrappy, but notable: both teams share an identical season save percentage of 0.879 and power-play percentages sit around the high teens. The Devils also carry a better shot pressure profile (corsiPct 58.4 v Winnipeg 49.4) and superior shots-for total, which supports their attack over the long run.

The market currently prices New Jersey as favourite — Win (Inc. OT) prices show Winnipeg 2.1 and New Jersey 1.7 — and for me that reads as fair value to back the visitors given their ladder position, scoring form and recent momentum. As nhl predictions go, this one looks like a clean lean toward the Devils.

Risks: Winnipeg have won both recent home starts (W 6–2 and W 4–3) and their last two at Canada Life Centre were convincing; home-ice bounce matters in November. The Jets also average 3.53 goals against per game but have shown they can score in bursts, so a shootout-style surprise is never out of the question.