Shortest win price
Ashen Knight (6)
2.20
Welcome to Corowa for the De Bortoli Wines, Rutherglen Mdn Hcp over 1600m on a soft 5 track with rain falling ahead of the 1:35 pm AEDT jump. Looking at the win market order, Ashen Knight heads the betting, closely followed by Apple Eyes, Dei Miracoli, and Victrix Swan. The bold play here is finding value away from the very top of the market in a tricky maiden field where several runners have plenty of questions to answer over the mile distance on rain-affected going.
Ashen Knight is currently shortest in the market for trainer Craig Weeding, coming off a sixth over 1590m at Wangaratta where it was there to threaten but couldn't quite finish it off, preceded by a solid third at Albury. The stable also saddles up Dei Miracoli from barrier one, who ran home respectably into a non-threatening fourth at Albury over 1400m last start and maps as a backmarker. Another runner drawing attention in the market is Apple Eyes, though its recent seventh at Wodonga where it went to the line tamely suggests it might be one strictly for exotics rather than a winning bold call.
Examining the broader race shape, speed groups indicate that Ashen Knight, Supreme Lass, and Victrix Swan will likely press forward as leaders, which could set up a testing race on the soft 5 surface. Victrix Swan made the running last time out at Wangaratta before folding, while runners like Flashman and My Boy Crippa sit off the pace. With the rain around and tricky maps, there are plenty of opportunities for an upset if the market leaders fail to handle the conditions.
Shortest win price
Ashen Knight (6)
2.20
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Offpace
Leader
Dei Miracoli · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races
Flashman · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
My Boy Crippa · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races
Ashen Knight · Positive
Profitable Trainer
Stable runners going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Career
3: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Albury
1: 0-0-0
Track Wagga
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 16%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
AAP
Ran home respectably into a non-threatening 4th at Albury last outing. Has place claims.
ILB
Jumped at $10.00 and made up ground when 4th last start at Albury and will appreciate a good alley. Can go through the gears. Expected to be finishing on top.
RP
Split a number of these rivals over 7f at Albury (maiden) when beaten 3½l in fourth last month; not yet off the mark in three attempts although has finished second; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
At 9/1 passed some rivals in the late stages when 4th last start at Albury and drawn the rails. Has a nice turn of foot. Win bet the play today.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Wodonga
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 16%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Stepping out for only the second time after battling home at Wodonga at longer odds 17 Oct. Better for race exposure.
ILB
Odds of $26.00 and moved through the field into 5th last start at Wodonga and having second career run. Drawn nicely. This won't be easy.
RP
Not beaten far on his debut (7f, Wodonga) at 25-1 last month; holds leading claims.
RSIS
Started 25/1 and picked up some ground to run 5th last start at Wodonga and having second race start. Will try to take advantage of the stall.
Career
15: 0-6-2
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Track Sapphire Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 0-3-0
Distance 1410m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-2-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-2-0
Going Soft
8: 0-2-2
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -29% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Rarely far away. Ran on okay without troubling in rain affected going at Taree. Makes a strong case in this field.
ILB
Was $5.00 and overtook some late when 5th last run at Taree.
RP
Not beaten too far (1½l) at Taree (dropped to 7f) two weeks ago in a maiden; has displayed improved form on last two starts; tends to find at least one too good; there are better alternatives here.
RSIS
Started 4/1 and picked up some late ground when 5th last start at Taree.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Albury
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Closed off late from the tail at Albury at second outing. More ground could help.
ILB
Was $15.00 and edged past some when finishing 4th last run at Albury. Entitled to be a big price.
RP
Wasn't beaten that far when fourth (beaten 2½l) over 7½f at Albury (handicap) last month; just his third outing so still early days; this only his second start in handicap company; can be on the premises.
RSIS
Odds of 14/1 and overtook some late when 4th last start at Albury.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Well back and never sighted at Leeton when second-up. Looks more a place prospect.
ILB
At $5.00 just average when 6th last time at Leeton.
RSIS
Started 4/1 and average at best when 6th last run at Leeton.
Career
6: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Albury
2: 0-0-1
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
There to threaten just couldn't quite finish it off at Wangaratta when second-up. Stripping fitter, sound claims.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Didn't attack the line when 6th last time at Wangaratta but goes down in weight. Should jump out and bowl along. Can measure up against these.
RP
Far from disgraced (beaten 2½l) last week (Wangaratta) in a maiden; shown recent signs of improvement and string of consistent efforts of late; should be in the mix given that not many of these impressed last time out and there was plenty to like about his latest performance.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Gave away some ground when 6th last start at Wangaratta but suited by the weight drop. Should jump out and bowl along. Solid prospects.
Career
11: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Gundagai
1: 0-0-0
Track Wagga
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1175m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1180m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 16%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Midfield, no rally and went to line tamely at Wodonga second-up. Hope for exotics only.
ILB
At $8.00 struggled with the pace when 7th last start at Wodonga. Happy to forgive that run. Strong claims in this.
RP
Winless after 11 races; beaten 5l in seventh when close behind Flashman with blinkers applied at Wodonga two weeks ago in a maiden; others appeal more.
RSIS
Started 7/1 and tailed off to finish 7th last start at Wodonga. Has the ability to turn things around. Must be considered here.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Hot Jockey
Positive
Cory Parish in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 56%
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
AAP
Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious at Warrnambool. Can show early speed. Right in this.
ILB
At $19.00 faded away to finish 7th last time at Warrnambool but gets a reduction in weight. Going well this campaign.
RSIS
Started at 18/1 and weakened to finish 7th last run at Warrnambool but will benefit with the weight drop. Performing impressively since returning from a break.
Career
9: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moruya
2: 0-0-0
Track Sapphire Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Bombala
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Going Firm
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
AAP
Kept on for the minor spoils in skinny line-up at Bombala. Sterner task awaits.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Ordinary performance when 9th last run at Wagga but matched against less formidable competition.
RP
Held when ninth beaten 10l in a conditions race at Wagga on Friday; has found improvement of late but losing run stretches to ten; others appeal more.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Average performance when 9th last start at Wagga but will find this grade easier.
Career
14: 0-2-0
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Corowa
1: 0-0-0
Track Wodonga
1: 0-0-0
Track Balranald
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
4: 0-2-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 51%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 31% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4kg from LS run
AAP
Went home tamely at Deniliquin off spell at $4.40. Needs to lift.
ILB
Odds of $13.00 and disappointing outing when 6th last start at Deniliquin but carrying less weight this time. Yet to break maiden status after 14 starts. Considering others.
RP
Beaten 6l when sixth of eight over 7f at Deniliquin (maiden) last month; losing run totals 14; not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Was 12/1 and unimpressive effort when 6th last run at Deniliquin but gets some weight relief. Still a maiden after 14 starts. Prefers to settle towards the rear.
Career
7: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Albury
1: 0-0-1
Track Wagga
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Philip Evans striking at just 3%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 42%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Was a long way from the action in 2100m 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Echuca. Gate a worry. Drops to shorter trip.
ILB
Started $41.00 and gave away some ground when 11th last start at Echuca and dropping in distance. Has shown early pace in races to date. Cannot recommend as a betting proposition.
RP
Finished last of 11 with blinkers tried (Echuca) last month on first run for her current trainer in a maiden upped to 1m2½f; without a win in seven attempts although has finished third; others appeal more.
RSIS
Started 40/1 and folded up in the straight when 11th last time at Echuca and back in trip. Has plenty of early pace.
Career
6: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Albury
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1590m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 15% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Made the running but folded like a cheap tent at Wangaratta. Looks up against it.
ILB
On a quick back up. Jumped at $26.00 and didn't threaten when 9th last time at Wangaratta. Shows good early pace. Others are more appealing.
RP
First-time blinkers had no impact in a maiden (Wangaratta) when beaten 8l (behind Ashen Knight) last Monday; six-race maiden though does have a second place to her name; has to be respected with so many of these having something to prove and she has shown signs of promise in the past.
RSIS
On a quick back up. At 25/1 faded to finish 9th last start at Wangaratta. Should come to hand quickly.