Northam (WA) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 2:39 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Northam (WA), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Thu 29 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Thu, 29 OctNortham (WA)Change

Race 3 — UUA Mdn 1000m · jumps Thu 29 Oct, 6:04 pm AEDT

Race preview

The Uua Maiden over 1000 metres at Northam on Good 4 going shapes as a puzzle with limited proven form. Keppel Gate sits shortest in the market, followed by Luminous Lil and God She's Good, with Incredible Mr Fox fourth. The speedGroups show a dual leadership threat from Incredible Mr Fox and Luminous Lil, while Keppel Gate figures from off-pace. Most of the field are first-starters, which tilts the race heavily toward trial form and stable patterns rather than track record.

Keppel Gate carries the market's trust at shortest odds, and there is form to support it. William Pike is engaged and the data shows Pike running 32 per cent above market expectation across his last 100 rides—a telling edge. Keppel Gate won on debut at Northam and has two runs at the track, stripping fitter after a freshen-up and dropping slightly in distance. The comment notes Pike aboard and a filleted run this venue: solid, workmanlike form. Luminous Lil sits next in the market but draws barrier 8—a sticky gate that will force the issue early. Her two runs show middling effort, and the AAP note flags she lacked pick-up on this track. Trainer David Harrison is enduring a horror run, struck at just 8 per cent with stable runners underperforming the market by 27 per cent.

Incredible Mr Fox sits fourth and presents a contrarian lean. Yes, the trainer is struggling (8 per cent strike-rate), but this runner's last start at Northam showed fight: three lengths off the winner in a maiden after being sent forward and outgunned late. The comment says stripping fitter and can play a role. God She's Good, despite the market's second-line dip, emerges from encouraging barrier trial form and carries an inside draw. However, her stable carries a 6 per cent strike-rate and is underperforming expectations by 56 per cent—red flags. The value lean sits with Keppel Gate on Pike's proven booking edge, but don't dismiss the spark Incredible Mr Fox showed at this track last time out.

Race notes

3Y MDN SW,3YO MDN,3yo,Maiden
GOOD4
Fine
10 runners

Shortest win price

Luminous Lil (4)

4.00

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Firststart

3Justa Rippa
7A Real Sort
8Clear Intent
9God She's Good
10On The Hour

Backmarker

11Starlight Sweetie

Midfield

5Apollo Storm

Onpace

6Keppel Gate

Leader

1Incredible Mr Fox
4Luminous Lil

Incredible Mr Fox · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Justa Rippa · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Luminous Lil · Negative
Trainer SR
David Harrison striking at just 8%
Apollo Storm · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Incredible Mr FoxJ: Paul Harvey·T: D R Harrison557kg8 1 4 7 33: 0-0-1$6.00$2.10

Career

3: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Northam
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Ascot
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Northam1000m4 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD41.69L
7Belmont1000m9 Sept 2026 · 3Y 0MWLY HCP · GOOD42.7L
4Lark Hill950m24 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.6L
1Lark Hill400m10 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)-0.2
8Ascot1000m21 Mar 2026 · 2yo · GOOD410L
1Lark Hill400m9 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-1.8

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 9%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Sent forward, outgunned late but boxed on this venue for new stable. Stripping fitter, can play a role.

ILB

Was competitive when 3rd last run at the track. Should come to hand quickly. Watching with interest.

On the premises when third of ten three weeks ago on debut for this trainer.

RSIS

Placed 3rd last start at this venue. Will be pushing for a forward position early.

2Off The RichterScratched7––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 77%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 53% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (29-weeks). A very soft debut performance at Pinjarra 8 Apr. Latest trial work was solid. Hard to make a case.

ILB

Resuming after a spell of 29 weeks. Odds of $11.00 and struggled with the pace when 5th last time at Pinjarra but having second career run.

RSIS

Fresh after a 29 week break. Was 10/1 and didn't find the line when 5th last time at Pinjarra but having second career run.

3Justa RippaJ: Troy Turner·T: Ms S Bakranich157kg4 6 4$18.00$3.80

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

4Belmont1000m12 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.7L
6Belmont1000m29 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.1L
4Belmont400m13 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.1L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves

Comments

AAP

Trials (3:0-0-0). Nothing flashy in trial work. Drawn well. Hard to dive into on debut.

ILB

Stephanie Bakranich 3yo by Safeguard having first race appearance and has the ideal barrier. Betting as a guide.

Already gelded; first competitive racecourse experience; related to 6f winner Stryker's Gal; prospects.

RSIS

3yo debutant sired by Safeguard for Stephanie Bakranich and gets a favourable stall.

4Luminous LilJ: Shaun Mc Gruddy·T: D R Harrison855kg2 2 3 42: 0-0-1$4.00$1.55

Career

2: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-1
Track Northam
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-1

Last starts

4Northam1100m15 Oct 2026 · 3Y SW MDN · GOOD45.48L
3Belmont1000m2 Apr 2026 · 2Y SW MDN · GOOD41.8L
2Lark Hill950m23 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.2L
2Lark Hill400m9 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
David Harrison striking at just 8%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 23%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Handily placed but lacked the necessary pick-up and battled to line this track. Sticky draw to negotiate. Reverts to slightly shorter trip. Others rate stronger.

ILB

Knocked up when 4th last start at the track. Has the necessary speed to mitigate the wide draw. Very capable of taking this out.

Fourth of 11 beaten 5½l over 5½f here (maiden) two weeks ago; easy enough to take on.

RSIS

Peaked on the run when 4th last run at the track. Has the pace to overcome the wide stall. One that represents value at a decent price.

5Apollo StormJ: Steven Parnham·T: N D Parnham755kg5 4 13 4 12: 0-0-0$8.50$2.65

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

1Belmont850m12 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-1.9
4Belmont1300m4 July 2026 · 2Y SWP · SOFT62.3L
13Belmont1200m20 June 2026 · 2Y SWP · GOOD44.2L
4Belmont1000m8 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)5.2L
5Belmont400m25 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.6L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 9%
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Fronting up for second campaign (16-weeks). Good pipe-opener trial. Competing in stronger races last prep. Better for those runs under the belt and open to improvement.

ILB

First run back from spell. Odds of $51.00 and made up ground when 4th last run at Belmont and up against a less challenging field. Dropping in distance. Will be a difficult test.

Beaten just over 2l four months ago when sent off 50-1 at Belmont Park in a conditions race.

RSIS

First run back after a break. Started 50/1 and closed off nicely when 4th last run at Belmont and will appreciate the drop in class.

6Keppel GateJ: William Pike·T: Simon Miller255kg4 1 3 72: 0-0-1$4.40$1.75

Career

2: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Northam
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

7Northam1100m15 Oct 2026 · 3UP SW MDN · GOOD44.87L
3Northam1000m27 Aug 2026 · 3Y SW MDN · HEAVY93.8L
1Belmont1000m17 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-1.7
4Belmont1000m3 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.3L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
William Pike 32% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Jockey
Positive
William Pike in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 32%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Finished well held this track at her second race start. Pike on. Coming back slightly in distance. Stripping fitter, can make her presence felt.

ILB

At $9.00 couldn't stay in touch when 7th last time at this track. Should improve from the last run and drawn nicely. William Pike is a plus. Looks set to run a big race.

Not disgraced when seventh of 11 over 5½f here (maiden) two weeks ago; others more likely.

RSIS

Started 8/1 and folded up in the straight when 7th last time around here. Has the ability to turn things around and drawn nicely. Rated to win.

7A Real SortJ: Victoria Corver·T: Ryan Hill355kg4 5 7 1$26.00$4.40

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

1Lark Hill400m19 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.2
7Belmont1000m2 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial43.2L
5Lark Hill400m27 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial5.3L
4Belmont400m27 Oct 2025 · Barrier Trial7.8L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -58% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 26%
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

Trials (5:1-0-0). Indicated progression winning latest trial at Lark Hill. Gets a soft draw. Market may offer more insight.

ILB

3yo debutant by Tassort for Ryan Hill. Follow the money.

This daughter of Tassort makes first rules appearance; has a decent shout.

RSIS

Tassort 3yo having first race start for Ryan Hill.

8Clear IntentJ: Jordan Turner·T: C & M Gangemi1055kg1 2 3$10.00$2.90

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

3Belmont850m12 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)7.5L
2Ascot850m11 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.7L
1Belmont400m28 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-1.9

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

Trials (3:1-1-1). Was an earlier trial winner on the Belmont Park track. Jordan Turner sticks for debut. Draw could be an issue but betting may provide a clearer picture.

ILB

First start at the races 3yo by Xtravagant for Chris Gangemi & Michael Gangemi. Watch the market.

May need the run being from this yard; sibling of Kick (5f winner); a watching brief the best policy.

RSIS

Chris Gangemi & Michael Gangemi trained 3yo by Xtravagant having first start.

9God She's GoodJ: Lucy F Fiore·T: Luke Fernie955kg3 2$4.60$1.80

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

2Belmont850m12 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.6L
3Belmont400m29 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.4L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 56%
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on

Comments

AAP

Trials (2:0-1-1). Encouraging performance in most recent barrier trial. Drawn deep but market may offer more insight.

ILB

Debutant 3yo by Playing God for Luke Fernie. Watch for a sign in the market.

There's hope from the pedigree that she has some ability; her yard gets plenty of first-time-out winners over this distance; easy to see her making an impression as some good aspects to her profile.

RSIS

Racing as a debutant 3yo by Playing God for Luke Fernie.

10On The HourJ: Brayden Gaerth·T: Ryan Hill455kg2$21.00$4.00

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

2Lark Hill400m19 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.2L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Brayden Gaerth current POT is 52% below Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Ryan Hill striking at just 8%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 26%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 70% in L100 rides
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-1-0). Only trial produced a narrow placing in good 4 conditions at Lark Hill. Nice gate. Prefer to see on debut.

ILB

3yo by Snippetson having first race appearance for Ryan Hill. Watch early betting.

This daughter of Snippetson makes first rules appearance; arguably the one to beat as some good aspects to her profile.

RSIS

3yo by Snippetson having first start for trainer Ryan Hill.

11Starlight SweetieJ: Jason Whiting·T: G C Ballantyne655kg7 4 4 12 81: 0-0-0$34.00$5.00

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Lark Hill1050m19 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.9L
12Belmont1200m20 June 2026 · 2Y SWP · GOOD44L
4Lark Hill950m15 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)1.9L
4Lark Hill1050m2 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)3.2L
7Lark Hill930m18 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)7.1L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Graeme Ballantyne striking at just 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -53% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 69%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 69% Profit on Turnover
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Kicks off second campaign (18-weeks). Offered little to catch the eye on debut at Belmont Park as a despised outsider 20 Jun. Experience gained. Not pushed out Lark Hill trial 19 Oct. Clearly the one to beat first-up.

ILB

Resuming after a spell. Started $151.00 and average effort when 12th last time at Belmont but having second race start. Likely to settle back in the field. Needs to find a lot more.

Respectable debut effort (beaten 4l) over 6f at Belmont Park at 150-1 in June; returns from a layoff; will need to progress to get off the mark.

RSIS

Resuming after a break. Started 150/1 and tailed off when 12th last run at Belmont but having second race start. Does take a while to get into stride.

Odds correct as at Thu 29 Oct, 6:10 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sun 25 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 10 races
Thu 15 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Sun 4 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Wed 23 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Sun 13 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
Thu 3 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races