Shortest win price
Cosmic Rosa (1)
3.50
Welcome to Warren for the Nutrien Ag Solutions Country Boosted Mdn Plate over 1200m on a good 4 surface under fine weather conditions, with the race scheduled for 2:20 pm AEDT. Looking at the win market order, Overshoot currently holds sway at the head of affairs, closely followed by Cosmic Rosa, Nightwalker, and Majestic Roca rounding out the main early fancies in what shapes as a tricky country maiden encounter where the value sits with a few runners who have the right form on the board to shake things up.
Taking a closer look at the form behind those shorter prices, Overshoot is drawn out in barrier 8 for trainer Ms J Clement and comes into this after warming up nicely late at Coonabarabran over this exact 1200m trip when finishing fifth. That effort suggests the step back to this journey suits, and the rider brings strong recent form. Meanwhile, Cosmic Rosa lines up from barrier 1 for G D Lunn, having worked home soundly at Dubbo over 1000m last time when finishing fourth. That first run for the new trainer indicated improvement, and the horse strips fitter here, making the bold play an intriguing proposition from the inside alley. Nightwalker brings plenty of exposed race experience to the contest from barrier 3 for Ms A Smith, having made steady inroads at Orange over 1000m two starts back when running third, showing enough resilience to suggest a place chance is well within reach if the pace suits the backmarkers and off-pace runners.
Further down the speed maps and market order, the early setup shows Overshoot mapping as the lone leader from barrier 8, while runners like King Kookabaa and Argyle Springs press forward on pace, and backmarkers such as Shazza's Star and Comby look to swoop late. Shazza's Star clocked the fastest overall finishing sectionals last start and catches the eye with a jockey striking well above average, while Comby represents a stable in sharp form that is outperforming market expectations. The bold call here is to look past the shortest prices and hunt for value among those proven at the trip or tracking forward with economical runs.
Shortest win price
Cosmic Rosa (1)
3.50
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Cosmic Rosa · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Majestic Roca · Positive
Profitable Trainer
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Nightwalker · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Shazza's Star · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Career
4: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track Cowra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1375m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 41%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 4kg more than LS
AAP
First run for new trainer handily placed and worked home soundly at Dubbo. Strips fitter. Latest suggested improvement and can build further.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Was getting tired late when 4th last run at Dubbo and drawn the rails. Watch the betting.
RP
Posted respectable effort when beaten 3l over 5f at Dubbo (handicap) last Saturday on debut for this trainer.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Gave ground when 4th last run at Dubbo and gets the perfect draw. Betting is the best guide.
Career
13: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Dubbo
4: 0-0-0
Track Albury
1: 0-0-0
Track Wagga
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 0-0-2
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (27-weeks). Had moments of promise last campaign but first time around Warren and may need this.
ILB
Fresh after break of 27 weeks. Started $10.00 and ran 6th last start at Dubbo and up in weight. Possible place chance.
RP
Not disgraced when sixth of 12 in a handicap (Dubbo, dropped back to 7f) six months ago; still winless and defeats stacking up (13 on the bounce); returns from a break here; a few rivals look in good form so makes little appeal.
RSIS
First run back after a break of 27 weeks. Started at 9/1 and came in 6th last time at Dubbo and carrying more weight than last time.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
AAP
Form to date fair. Just nabbed after making all at Narromine. Fitter second-up. Right in this.
ILB
Missed by a narrow margin last run at Narromine and honest performer putting a tidy record together.
RSIS
Right in the mix last run at Narromine and solid career start.
Career
40: 0-4-15
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 0-0-3
Second-up
5: 0-0-3
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-1
Track Dubbo
9: 0-1-5
Track Bathurst
3: 0-0-1
Track Orange
20: 0-2-9
Distance 1200m
8: 0-0-3
Distance 1290m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1310m
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
7: 0-0-3
Going Good
33: 0-4-12
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 59%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 63% Profit on Turnover
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 5.5kg weight here
AAP
Made steady inroads but the winner was out of reach at Orange second-up. All the better, not out of it.
ILB
Displayed good finishing speed when 3rd last start at Orange but has to cope with a weight increase. Will go close.
RP
Still winless and defeats stacking up (40 on the bounce); solid third in a handicap (had Anders Diamond and Comby behind) at Orange three weeks ago; record demonstrates how he often finds at least one too good so looks risky.
RSIS
Nice run when finishing 3rd beaten by 3 3/4L last start at Orange but up in weight. Strong claims in this.
Career
7: 0-1-2
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Dubbo
3: 0-0-1
Track Orange
2: 0-1-0
Track Narromine
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-1-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 0-1-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 28% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Kody Nestor 25% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 129%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Kylie Kennedy in good form, out performing market 64%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 36% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Kody Nestor in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 25%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 33%
AAP
Resuming (45-weeks). Improved over longer last prep but hard to see threatening at this stage.
ILB
Resuming after a 45 week spell. Tidy effort when 3rd last time at Wellington and gets a favourable gate. Jockey Kody Nestor and trainer Kylie Kennedy link up well. Knockout chance.
RP
Consistent performer and stepped up on his last two starts; respectable third over 1m½f at Wellington (maiden) last December; returns from a layoff; if he can build on his latest effort then ought to be of interest.
RSIS
Fresh after a 45 week break. Did well when 3rd last time at Wellington and can find a nice position from the draw.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Well down the track at Muswellbrook on debut at wide odds. Needs to find a few lengths.
ILB
Looked outclassed when 10th last time at Muswellbrook but fitter for debut run. Likely to get back in the run.
RP
Finished tenth of 11 on his debut (Muswellbrook, 6½f) at 80-1 20 days ago; has a reasonable shout.
RSIS
Was well beaten when 10th last run at Muswellbrook but fitter for debut run. Does take a while to get into stride.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Sharon Jeffries striking at just 9%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 56%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 30%
AAP
Settled back and passed a few late in the Country Boosted Mdn at Orange for new stable. Worth a look.
ILB
Odds of $61.00 and came in 5th last run at Orange. Others are better.
RP
Out of the frame (beaten 4½l in fifth) at Orange on his debut for new trainer last month in a handicap; cannot be ignored.
RSIS
Started at 60/1 and finished 5th last run at Orange.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
99
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Narromine
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -52% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 61%
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Beaten but by no means disgraced at career opener. Experience a positive. Certainly open to improvement off that performance. Can give a sight.
ILB
Was $5.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 4th last time at Narromine. Overlooking the last run and having second race start. Definite claims.
RP
Fair debut effort (Narromine, 5½f) at 4-1 last month; has to be feared if replicating initial run.
RSIS
At 4/1 couldn't stay in touch when 4th last run at Narromine. Should bounce back and was a debutant last start. Should go close.
Career
14: 0-3-3
Rating · IRD
97
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Forbes
1: 0-1-0
Track Dubbo
6: 0-0-1
Track Bathurst
3: 0-0-2
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-1
Going Soft
4: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-2
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 59%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 63% Profit on Turnover
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 1%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
AAP
Fresh. Well entrenched in the maiden ranks but latest form solid. Narrowly beaten in the small field at Forbes over today's trip. Can make her presence felt.
ILB
Just short of the win last start at Forbes and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Won't be far away during the run. One of the punters top hopes at a very generous price.
RP
Beaten a short head at Forbes last month; has raised her game the last twice.
RSIS
Was agonizingly close last time at Forbes and getting better in recent performances. Has plenty of early pace. Competitive type.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Hot Trainer
Positive
Kylie Kennedy in good form, out performing market 64%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 36% POT in L100 Runners
AAP
Settled back and didn't figure at second outing. in the Country Boosted Mdn at Orange. More a minor money chance here.
ILB
At $91.00 came in 6th last run at Orange. Interesting gear change of tongue tie on first time. Likely to get back in the field. Can't have in this.
RP
Sixth of ten beaten 6l at Orange last month in a handicap; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Odds of 90/1 and ran 6th last start at Orange. Tongue strap go on for the first time. Expected to settle towards the rear.
Career
4: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
1: 0-0-0
Track Moruya
1: 0-0-0
Track Sapphire Coast
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1210m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1460m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 9% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 35%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Warmed up nicely late at Coonabarabran for new stable as an outsider. Sound claims.
ILB
Made some ground when 5th last time at Coonabarabran. Likely to be well placed early. Capable of winning this.
RP
Four-race maiden though does have a third place to her name; respectable effort in defeat (beaten 2½l) in a handicap dropped down to this trip at Coonabarabran last month on debut for this trainer.
RSIS
Kept chasing when 5th last run at Coonabarabran. Should muster plenty of early pace. Good prospects.