Tommy Paul v Adolfo Daniel Vallejo: the value sits with the Paraguayan

Tommy Paul meets Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in the third round on Tuesday, 18 August at 1:30 pm AEST, and the market's got this wrong. Paul sits 21st in the rankings with five career titles and a 69 per cent win rate this season, but he's coming off a straight-sets loss to Learner Tien and carries patchy recent form into this clash. Vallejo, ranked 66th, has won his last two starts and owns a head-to-head victory over the American from April this year.

The bold play is backing the underdog. Paul's the favourite at shorter odds, yet the form lines and the only meeting between these two point the other way. Vallejo's on an upward curve; Paul's stumbling. That's where the value sits.

Who wins the match?

Tommy Paul's season stats read well on paper — 34 wins against 15 losses and one title in 2026 — but his last five outings tell a different story. He's lost two of his last three, most recently falling 2–6, 6–3 to Learner Tien on Saturday, 8 August. Before that he beat TBD 6–4, 7–6 on 6 August, but then lost 6–7, 7–5 to Kamil Majchrzak on 29 July. That's inconsistent tennis, and it's cost him momentum heading into this round.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo arrives in better shape. The Paraguayan is coming off back-to-back wins: a 6–3, 6–3 victory over Valentin Vacherot on Sunday, 16 August, and a 6–2, 6–4 result against Kyrian Jacquet the day before. Both wins came in home conditions, and while his last five overall shows three losses mixed in, the current two-match streak is the form that matters. His season record sits at 12 wins from 21 matches — a 57 per cent clip — but right now he's playing cleaner tennis than his opponent.

The pair met once before, in April this year, and Paul took it in three sets: 6–6, 6–4, 4–6. That scoreline was tight, decided by narrow margins, and it came four months ago. Since then Vallejo's ranking has climbed from outside the top 70 to 66th, and Paul has drifted from a career-best eighth to 24th. The gap between them has closed.

Paul's priced as favourite, yet the American's last-start loss and the trend in both players' trajectories suggest the market's underestimating Vallejo's chances. Our tennis betting tips lean towards the upset.

The Set Handicap case

The Set Handicap market offers Tommy Paul at –1.5 sets or Adolfo Daniel Vallejo at +1.5. Paul laying a set-and-a-half means backing him to win in straight sets; Vallejo getting the 1.5-set start covers him winning outright or losing in three.

Paul's recent form makes a straight-sets win hard to justify. His last five includes two losses, and even his win over TBD on 6 August went to a tiebreak in the second set. Vallejo, meanwhile, has won his last two in straight sets and pushed Paul to three when they met in April. The Paraguayan's shown he can take a set off the American, and his current confidence suggests he'll do it again.

Taking Vallejo +1.5 sets is the bold call. The market's priced Paul to dominate, but the form and the head-to-head history say otherwise.

Total Games — where it lands

The Total Games line sits at 23.5. When these two met in April, the match scoreline was 6–6, 6–4, 4–6 — adding the games from those three sets gives 32 games, well over the quoted line. That result suggests competitive sets with plenty of holds and the occasional tiebreak.

Paul's recent matches have varied: his loss to Tien went 2–6, 6–3 (17 games), while his win over TBD was 6–4, 7–6 (23 games, a tiebreak included). Vallejo's last two wins were both comfortable straight-sets affairs — 6–3, 6–3 (18 games) and 6–2, 6–4 (18 games) — but his April clash with Paul produced more contested service games and longer sets.

The history between them points over 23.5 games. If Vallejo pushes Paul again, we'll see extended sets and a total that clears the line comfortably.