Blackhawks v Kings: where the value sits on Wednesday's 11am showdown

The bottom of the ladder collides at United Center on Wednesday, 28 October, 11:00 am AEDT, when the Chicago Blackhawks (3–6–0, 29th) host the Los Angeles Kings (2–4–2, 28th). Neither side has shown much to recommend them through nine and eight games respectively, but there's a lean here — and it sits with the visitors at a price that looks past fair.

Chicago's three home wins this season came against Winnipeg (4–3) and Pittsburgh (5–3) in mid-October; since then they've dropped three straight at United Center, conceding four to Dallas, four to Montreal, and three to Florida on Monday. Los Angeles arrive having lost 1–3 to New Jersey on Sunday, but before that they won back-to-back road fixtures — 3–2 over the Islanders and 5–2 against Washington — showing they can find goals away from home. Both teams are leaking badly, but the Kings' two-win, two-overtime-loss split gives them six points from eight games, matching Chicago's tally from nine starts. The market has them at near coin-flip odds, yet one side carries recent road evidence the other lacks.

Who will win? Kings the bold play

Chicago have scored 21 goals across nine games (2.33 per contest) and conceded 36 (4.00 per). Their save percentage sits at 86.9, their Corsi at 42.9, and their power play has converted at 12.5 per cent. In their last five overall, they've averaged 2.4 for and 3.4 against; three of those five were losses, including the most recent 2–3 reverse to Florida. The Blackhawks' leading scorers are Anton Frondell (1G 5A), Teuvo Teräväinen (2G 3A), and Tyler Bertuzzi (2G 3A) — depth scoring, not a marquee threat.

Los Angeles counter with 20 goals for (2.5 per game) and 29 against (3.63) through eight starts. Their save percentage is marginally better at 87.7, their Corsi stronger at 50.3, and their power play sharper at 16 per cent. Artemi Panarin leads them with 6G 3A, while Adrian Kempe (3G 4A) and Alex Laferriere (2G 5A) add secondary punch. Over their last five, the Kings have posted 2.2 for and 3.0 against — tighter defensively than Chicago's 3.4. They won twice in that stretch, both on the road, before Sunday's 1–3 loss in New Jersey.

There is no recent head-to-head data between these two in the pack, so the case rests on current form and the ladder. Chicago's last-five sample at home is identical to their overall last-five (all five were played at United Center), meaning the 2.4 for and 3.4 against already reflect home ice — and those numbers aren't strong. Los Angeles, meanwhile, have won two of their last four away from home. The win market has Chicago at 2.00 and the Kings at 1.80. Given the visitors' slightly better underlying metrics, stronger top-line scoring, and demonstrated ability to collect points on the road, the value sits with Los Angeles. Our nhl tips lean away, and the price makes it the bold play.

The risks

Chicago have home ice and two wins in their last five at United Center, both decided by a single goal. If they can lift their save percentage and special teams on the night, they're live. Los Angeles are coming off a loss and have conceded 29 in eight games — hardly watertight. The Blackhawks' power play is weaker at 12.5 per cent, but one hot sequence could swing a low-scoring affair. Both sides are vulnerable; this is a confidence play on the Kings' roster depth and recent road results, not a guarantee.