Columbus Blue Jackets v New York Rangers: the bold play — where the value sits

This one matters for momentum. The Columbus Blue Jackets host the New York Rangers at Nationwide Arena, 10:00 am AEDT on Sun, 18 Oct, and we’re siding with the visitor as the bold play. The board has Columbus as the slight favourite (Win prices: Columbus 1.85, New York 1.95), but the numbers point the other way.

Columbus arrive with a fragile defensive ledger — conceding 4.2 goals per game this season and a save percentage of 0.843 — while the Rangers boast a stingier 1.75 goals-against average and an elite .927 save percentage. Both teams failed in their last starts, so there is obvious volatility heading into puck drop.

This is a value-hunter’s call: the market’s nudged Columbus to favourite status, but the Rangers’ underlying defence and goaltending make them the pick. For anyone scanning nhl tips, the value sits with New York on the win market.

Who will win?

The simple ledger gives New York the edge. The Rangers sit 2nd on the ladder with a 6-2-0 record and 12 points; Columbus are 27th with a 2-3-0 record and 4 points. Season-level scoring: New York has 27 goals for across eight games (3.38 per game) and has conceded 14 (1.75 per game). Columbus have 15 goals for in five games (3.0 per game) and have conceded 21 (4.2 per game).

Recent scoring trends back that gap: over the last five starts Columbus are averaging 3.0 goals for and 4.7 against, while the Rangers are averaging 3.4 for and 3.0 against. Columbus’ home results are inconsistent — a 3–2 win and then a heavy 3–7 loss in their two most recent home outings — which underlines the defensive fragility.

Both teams arrive on the back of defeats: Columbus’ most recent result was a 3–7 home loss to Florida on Wed, 14 Oct, and the Rangers’ most recent result was a 1–7 loss at New Jersey on Fri, 16 Oct. That shared recent pain increases variance, but it doesn’t erase season-long edges like save percentage (.927 v .843) and goals-against per game (1.75 v 4.2) that favour New York.

The board currently shows Columbus as the favourite at 1.85 with New York at 1.95 (Win, inc. OT). We’re contrarian here because the Ranger defence and goaltending profile looks underpriced at 1.95 — that’s where the value sits. Risks: both clubs allowed heavy totals in their most recent defeats, so this can flip into a high-scoring night if either goalie struggles early.