Two Pacific Division strugglers meet at crypto.com Arena on Thursday, 5 November at 2:00 pm AEDT, and the value sits with the home side despite their recent wobbles. Los Angeles Kings (4-7-2, 29th overall) host San Jose Sharks (7-7-1, 23rd), and while neither club is inspiring confidence, the Kings at home against a Sharks outfit that has bled goals all season presents an opportunity.
The Kings are second-last on the ladder but the Sharks' defensive record — 3.4 goals against per game — tells you everything about why this price makes sense. San Jose's 7-7-1 record flatters them; they've been outshot heavily (45.2 Corsi percentage) and are conceding chances at a rate that should have them well underwater. The Kings, meanwhile, average 2.77 goals for per game and have shown they can put up numbers when they click.
Who wins at crypto.com Arena?
Both sides are coming off losses — the Kings fell 2–3 to Buffalo Sabres at home on Sunday, 1 November, while the Sharks dropped 1–2 to Calgary Flames in their most recent outing on Tuesday, 3 November. That's the immediate form, and it's not pretty for either club. But the broader picture favours Los Angeles.
The Kings split their last five starts, winning two and losing three. Those wins included a 6–5 thriller against Ottawa Senators and a 6–3 road victory over the New York Rangers — evidence they can score in bunches. Their last five average 3.2 goals for and 3.2 against, with wins coming by an average margin of two goals. San Jose's last five is grimmer: one win (3–2 over Vancouver Canucks), four losses, averaging just 1.8 goals for and conceding 3.4 per game. When they lose, they lose by 2.3 goals on average.
At crypto.com Arena this season, the Kings are 1-1 in their last two home starts — the loss to Buffalo and the win over Ottawa. That's a small sample, but both games featured plenty of scoring. San Jose's road numbers aren't in the pack, but their season-long defensive rate of 3.4 goals against per game and poor Corsi percentage suggest they'll leak chances away from home as well.
There's no recent head-to-head history provided, so we're working from season form alone. The Kings sit 29th but have the offensive pieces — Artemi Panarin leads with eight goals and five assists, Brandt Clarke (three goals, seven assists) and Alex Laferriere (two goals, seven assists) provide secondary scoring. The Sharks counter with Macklin Celebrini (five goals, 11 assists) and Will Smith (six goals, four assists), but their defence is a sieve. The Sharks' penalty kill is strong at 84 percent, but their 5-on-5 play has been awful — hence the 45.2 Corsi.
The market has the Kings at shorter odds, and that's the right call. Our nhl predictions lean towards the home side in a contest where both clubs are flawed but one has the home rink and the offensive upside to exploit a porous opponent.
Tipped at $1.75 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Leading scorers
Season goals and assists.
Los Angeles Kings
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Artemi PanarinLW | 8G 5A |
| Brandt ClarkeD | 3G 7A |
| Alex LaferriereRW | 2G 7A |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | G-A |
|---|---|
| Macklin CelebriniF | 5G 11A |
| Will SmithC | 6G 4A |
| Tyler ToffoliC | 4G 5A |
The risks
The Kings' goaltending is a worry — their 87.8 save percentage ranks poorly, and they've conceded 45 goals in 13 games. If San Jose's top scorers find rhythm, Los Angeles can be beaten. The Sharks' power play sits at 23.08 percent, well above the Kings' woeful 62.5 penalty kill. Discipline will matter.
Both teams are also capable of no-shows. The Kings have lost seven of 13; the Sharks have been blown out recently (1–5 by Ottawa, 4–6 by Boston). This is a game between two sides outside the playoff picture, and consistency is not their strength. The value is there, but it's a bet on the Kings being less bad than their opponent, not a ringing endorsement.