Arawa Park (NZ) horsestips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Arawa Park (NZ), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sunday 11 October 2026

Race 3 — Green Light Insurance Brokers Mdn 1400m · jumps 12:43 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Arawa Park for the Green Light Insurance Brokers Mdn over 1400m on a Soft 7 surface with showers around. Looking at the win market order, Concurrence sits right at the top of the betting as the shortest runner, closely followed by Celebrate Now, Royce, and Maximus rounding out the leading quartet of choices in what shapes as an interesting maiden test.

Digging into the form behind those shorter prices, Concurrence represents the in-form stable of Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson and comes here off a sound debut third over 1400m at Matamata on a soft track. Celebrate Now brings mixed form including a solid runner-up effort in a Tauranga maiden fillies and mares contest over 1500m on soft ground two starts back, though she faded over further last time out. Royce drops in grade after finding the going tough when finishing down the track at Ellerslie over 1200m, but is drawn wide with the early speed to burn across the field.

Further down the order, several other runners bring distinct tactical profiles to the contest. Our Lady Jade and Sovrana share the leader speed map grouping alongside Royce, which could inject genuine early tempo into the race. Meanwhile, Maximus returns from a break for trainer V A Prendergast after showing some late merit on debut when fourth at Matamata on a soft track, making him an interesting type to watch as the race unfolds.

Race notes

MAIDEN,Maiden
SOFT7
SHOWERS
14 runners

Shortest win price

Concurrence (12)

3.40

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

19Spiritus

Offmidfield

2Maximus
8Gaios

Firststart

9Barachiel
10Remember Karly Ann
14Bellaforza

Midfield

6Rakonui

Offpace

3Vento D'Argento
4Celebrate Now
7Assassina

Onpace

12Concurrence

Leader

11Royce
16Our Lady Jade
18Sovrana

Maximus · Negative
Trainer A2E
Stable currently underperforming market expectation
Vento D'Argento · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 41% lower than Career Avg.
Celebrate Now · Negative
Gave ground LS
Faded towards the finish last time out
Rakonui · Positive
Line Finder
Top runner in this field with best benchmark finishing sectionals Last Start

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Foo FooScratched18––––

Career

5: 0-2-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Rotorua
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Avondale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1230m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-2-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

2Te Aroha1400m18 Sept 2026 · MDN HWT · HEAVY101.18L
6Ruakaka1200m2 Sept 2026 · MAIDEN · SOFT61.9L
2Rotorua1230m12 Aug 2026 · Rating 60 HCP · HEAVY90.14L
6Ellerslie1200m6 May 2026 · MDN 2&3YO · SOFT57.83L
5Avondale1200m8 Apr 2026 · MDN 2&3YO · HEAVY81.08L

Insights

Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 6.5kg from LS run

Comments

ILB

Finished well when 2nd last run at Te Aroha on a heavy rated track. In top form since resuming from a spell.

RSIS

Came on strongly when 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L last run at Te Aroha. In good shape of late.

2MaximusJ: Lynsey Satherley·T: V A Prendergast1358.5kg41: 0-0-013.003.80

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed60%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Matamata
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Matamata1400m14 June 2026 · MDN 2&3YO · SOFT75.35L

Insights

Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
1st Up
Negative
May need this run

Comments

ILB

Back after a break. Started $31.00 and showed some merit late when 4th last start at Matamata and was on debut last time. Likely to get back in the field. Entitled to be big odds.

RSIS

Fresh after a break. Started 30/1 and advanced late into 4th last start at Matamata and was on debut last time. Expected to settle towards the tail.

3Vento D'ArgentoJ: Bridget Grylls·T: S Ritchie & C Murray258.5kg5 4 93: 0-0-021.004.60

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Tauranga
1: 0-0-0
Track Otaki
1: 0-0-0
Track Woodville
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

9Otaki2100m9 Jan 2026 · MDN · GOOD48.11L
4Tauranga1500m12 Dec 2025 · MDN · SOFT54.4L
5Woodville1600m2 Nov 2025 · MDN 3YO · SOFT61.8L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 41% lower than Career Avg.
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
1st Up
Negative
May need this run

Comments

ILB

First up from a spell of 39 weeks. Was $9.50 and weakened under pressure when 9th last time at Otaki but can find a nice position from the draw. Not at all out of this race.

RSIS

Resuming after a 39 week break. Started 17/2 and looked outclassed when 9th last time at Otaki but has a good draw. Back to a shorter distance. Not without a chance.

4Celebrate NowJ: George Rooke·T: R James & R Wellwood556.5kg3 2 93: 0-1-14.401.85

Career

3: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pukekura
1: 0-0-0
Track Tauranga
1: 0-1-0
Track Te Aroha
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

9Pukekura1800m24 Jan 2026 · 3YOF SW · HEAVY916L
2Tauranga1500m2 Jan 2026 · MDN F&M · SOFT60.5L
3Te Aroha1400m7 Dec 2025 · MDN 3YO · GOOD41L

Insights

Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run

Comments

ILB

First up and good run when finishing 3rd beaten by 1L first up last preparation at Te Aroha. Matched against lesser competition. Showing consistent performance in races. Great chance.

RSIS

Resuming and finished with intent when 3rd beaten by 1L resuming last preparation at Te Aroha. Facing a weaker grade. Promising career start. Will be down in distance. One of the punters top hopes at a very generous price.

5Bordeaux BelleScratched6––––

Career

7: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
5: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ellerslie
1: 0-0-0
Track Pukekohe
1: 0-0-0
Track Matamata
2: 0-1-0
Distance 800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1150m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-0

Last starts

2Matamata1050m16 Sept 2026 · MDN · SOFT71.33L
6Pukekohe1200m1 Apr 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP F&M · HEAVY85.1L
5Te Aroha1150m6 Mar 2026 · MDN F&M · SOFT52.17L
7Te Aroha1150m26 Nov 2025 · MDN · GOOD44.1L
7Matamata1200m17 Oct 2025 · MDN 3YO · SOFT79.1L
6Ellerslie1200m1 Feb 2025 · 2YO SW · SOFT58L
4Wanganui800m31 Aug 2024 · MDN 2YO · HEAVY106.6L

Insights

Turn Of Foot
Positive
Had the fastest L200m sectionals last start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 8% better than Career Avg.
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start

Comments

ILB

Came on strongly when 2nd last run at Matamata and going over extra ground.

RSIS

Did well to run into 2nd last start at Matamata and going over more ground.

6RakonuiJ: Rihaan Goyaram·T: R R Manning1156.5kg7 32: 0-0-113.003.80

Career

2: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed60%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Matamata
1: 0-0-1
Track Te Aroha
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Matamata1400m16 Sept 2026 · MDN F&M · SOFT71.31L
7Te Aroha1150m7 Dec 2025 · MDN · GOOD44.4L

Insights

Line Finder
Positive
Top runner in this field with best benchmark finishing sectionals Last Start
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start

Comments

ILB

Managed to finish 3rd beaten by 1 1/4L last start at Matamata. Very tidy performer.

RSIS

Rattled home nicely into 3rd last time at Matamata. Expecting a solid performance.

7AssassinaJ: Matthew Cartwright·T: S B Marsh1056.5kg61: 0-0-013.003.80

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Tauranga
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Tauranga1200m29 May 2026 · MDN 2&3YO · GOOD43.02L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 27% in Last 100 Rides
1st Up
Negative
May need this run

Comments

ILB

First run back from a break. Started $13.00 and tailed off when 6th last time at Tauranga but was a debutant last start. Rough hope.

RSIS

First run back after a break. Odds of 12/1 and uncompetitive when 6th last time at Tauranga but having second career run.

8GaiosJ: Lily Sutherland·T: Ms M Northcott456.5kg9 11 83: 0-0-051.008.00

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed60%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Tauranga
1: 0-0-0
Track Te Rapa
1: 0-0-0
Track Rotorua
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1560m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Tauranga1400m1 Oct 2025 · MDN · SOFT711.2L
11Rotorua1560m28 Dec 2023 · MDN · SOFT514.2L
9Te Rapa1300m2 Dec 2023 · MDN · GOOD44.6L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Ms M K Northcott striking at just 1%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 375 day break (> 300 days)

Comments

ILB

Back from a 53 week break. Started $81.00 and weakened to finish 8th last run at Tauranga. Expected to settle towards the tail. Not interested today.

RSIS

Resuming after a 53 week break. Odds of 80/1 and was well beaten when 8th last run at Tauranga. Likely to get back in the field.

9BarachielJ: Jasmine Fawcett·T: Ms M Falconer1656.5kg–26.005.50

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves

Comments

ILB

Margaret Falconer trained 4yo first starter by Almanzor. Watch the market.

RSIS

4yo first starter by Almanzor for trainer Margaret Falconer. Watch the market.

10Remember Karly AnnJ: Tom Wigram·T: S & K Alexander2056.5kg–21.004.80

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 28% in Last 100 Rides
On Debut
Positive
First race start

Comments

ILB

4yo by Preferment having initial appearance for Simon Alexander & Katrina Alexander. The large claim from Tom Wigram helps. Betting is the best guide.

RSIS

First time at the races 4yo by Preferment for trainer Simon Alexander & Katrina Alexander. Tom Wigram provides some weight relief. Watch the betting.

11RoyceJ: Masahiro Hashizume·T: C W Cole1956kg2 6 4 134: 0-1-05.002.00

Career

4: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Otaki
1: 0-1-0
Track Te Rapa
1: 0-0-0
Track Ellerslie
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-0

Last starts

13Ellerslie1200m19 Sept 2026 · MDN 3YO · SOFT513.24L
4Ellerslie1600m16 May 2026 · 2YO SW · SOFT52.04L
6Te Rapa1400m2 May 2026 · 2YO SW · SOFT51.81L
2Otaki1300m11 Apr 2026 · 2YO SW+P · SOFT61.68L

Insights

Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

ILB

Jumped at $8.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 13th last time at Ellerslie but facing a weaker grade. Has the early speed to burn across from the wide draw. Good prospects.

RSIS

Started at 7/1 and lost ground in the run home when 13th last start at Ellerslie but drops back to a suitable class. Strong prospects in this race.

12ConcurrenceJ: Michael Mc Nab·T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson856kg31: 0-0-13.401.60

Career

1: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Matamata
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Matamata1400m16 Sept 2026 · MDN 3YO · SOFT73.34L

Insights

Top Stable
Positive
M & S Walker & Bergerson performing above market expectation
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run

Comments

ILB

Did well to run into 3rd last start at Matamata and was on debut last time. Won't be far away during the run. Win will not surprise.

RSIS

Kept running on late when 3rd beaten by 3 1/4L last start at Matamata and was a debutant last start. Should come to hand quickly. Solid claims.

13Dicko's DanceScratched17––––

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start

Comments

ILB

Jumped at $4.50 and faded late when 4th last run at Matamata and fitter for debut run.

RSIS

Was 7/2 and lost momentum late when 4th last start at Matamata and having second race start.

14BellaforzaJ: Joe Doyle·T: Ben & Ryan Foote1254kg–21.004.80

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating80%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 34% better than Career Avg.
On Debut
Positive
First race start

Comments

ILB

3yo first starter sired by Captivant for Ben Foote & Ryan Foote. Betting as a guide.

RSIS

Racing as a debutant 3yo by Captivant for Ben Foote & Ryan Foote. Watch betting.

15Sixty Bar EightScratched15––––

Rating · IRD

Comments

ILB

Career debut 4yo by Tivaci for trainer Tim Carter & Margaret Carter. Watch the market moves.

RSIS

4yo by Tivaci having first race appearance for Tim Carter & Margaret Carter.

16Our Lady JadeJ: Floor Moerman·T: R K Fleming1456.5kg71: 0-0-026.005.50

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Rotorua
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1215m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Rotorua1215m1 July 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP F&M · HEAVY1016.54L

Insights

Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
1st Up
Negative
May need this run

Comments

ILB

Back from a spell. At $26.00 didn't threaten when 7th last run around here but fitter for debut run. Would not recommend.

RSIS

Resuming from a break. Started 25/1 and didn't attack the line when 7th last start at this venue on a heavy rated track but having second race start.

17ShowdamagicScratched1––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low

Comments

ILB

Lacked competitiveness when 11th last start at Woodville but drawn beautifully.

RSIS

Struggled when 11th last run at Woodville but has the ideal draw.

18SovranaJ: Warren Kennedy·T: S Ritchie & C Murray356.5kg8 82: 0-0-020.004.60

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Tauranga
1: 0-0-0
Track Ellerslie
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Tauranga1600m15 Nov 2025 · MDN · SOFT510.9L
8Ellerslie1400m25 Oct 2025 · MDN 3YO · SOFT55.9L

Insights

Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 330 day break (> 300 days)

Comments

ILB

Racing fresh after a break of 47 weeks. Jumped at $7.00 and folded up in the straight when 8th last start at Tauranga. Likely to be well placed early. Watch for a sign in the market.

RSIS

Back from a 47 week break. Started 6/1 and gave away some ground when 8th last run at Tauranga. Should be going forward early. Could feature here.

19SpiritusJ: A Lawson-Carroll·T: C K Ormsby958.5kg5 9 73: 0-0-020.004.60

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed40%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Tauranga
1: 0-0-0
Track Te Aroha
1: 0-0-0
Track Pukekohe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Tauranga1400m2 Jan 2026 · MDN 3YO · SOFT66.86L
9Te Aroha1400m7 Dec 2025 · MDN 3YO · GOOD411.8L
5Pukekohe1200m25 June 2025 · MDN 2&3YO · HEAVY106.7L

Insights

Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up

Comments

ILB

First up from a 40 week break. Started $12.00 and unimpressive effort when 7th last run at Tauranga. Might have to make up considerable ground. Could feature here.

RSIS

Back from a break of 40 weeks. Was 11/1 and mediocre display when 7th last start at Tauranga. Likely to get back in the run. Keep safe.

20Flow StateScratched7––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed60%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace

Comments

ILB

Disappointing outing when 9th last run at Taupo.

RSIS

Disappointing run when 9th last run at Taupo.

Odds correct as at 12:00 pm AEDT. Odds can change.