Ascot Park (NZ) horses tips & previews

Thursday 22 October 2026

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Ascot Park (NZ), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Thursday 22 October 2026

Race 2 — Entain/Nzb Insurance Pearl Series Mdn 1600m · jumps 11:36 am AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Ascot Park for the Entain/Nzb Insurance Pearl Series Mdn over 1600m on a soft 5 track under cloudy skies. The win market points clearly towards She's A Filly sitting at the head of affairs, closely followed by Must Bee and Tick Tick Boom, with Risk Mitigation rounding out the next line of betting in this mares maiden contest. Fortunes favour the bold, and the early market order holds a few clues worth dissecting as we look for where the value sits in this tricky middle-distance puzzle.

Taking a closer look at the market elect, She's A Filly jumps from barrier 1 with Ashlee Strawbridge steering for trainer A T Beckett. Her credentials include a sound third at Wingatui over 1400m on a heavy track where she made ground late, paired with an advantageous speed map profile as a noted leader who clocked the fastest last 600m sectionals last start in this field. On the other hand, Must Bee drops significantly in weight by 7.5kg and draws barrier 5 for trainer Kelvin Tyler, coming off a fifth at Te Aroha over this 1600m trip. While Must Bee failed to stay in touch there, this stable switch and weight relief create an intriguing narrative if she can find her rhythm early on pace.

Scouring further down the race book, Tick Tick Boom shares the leader speed group with She's A Filly from barrier 3, though recent efforts like a fifth at Ashburton suggest caution despite steering from an in-form stable that often outperforms market expectations. Meanwhile, Risk Mitigation is drawn nicely in barrier 2 for trainer Ms J Burrows, sporting a backmarker pattern and a recent seventh at Phar Lap Raceway where she flashed finishing speed. The market's missed the potential for some of these lighter-fancied runners to disrupt the established order if the speed up front gets too hot. Frame your plays carefully as an opinionated lean away from the absolute shortest quote could unearth some genuine overs.

Race notes

F&M MAIDEN,Maiden
SOFT5
CLOUDY
9 runners

Shortest win price

She's A Filly (1)

3.40

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

4Risk Mitigation

Offpace

2Angel's Army
5Aud's Reward
6Daniellish
9Suzy Parker

Onpace

3Must Bee

Firststart

8Gem Fire

Leader

1She's A Filly
7Tick Tick Boom

She's A Filly · Positive
Attacks Line
Fastest L600m Sectionals Last Start in this field
Angel's Army · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 65% lower than Career Avg.
Must Bee · Negative
Gap In Runs
Not raced for 32 days
Risk Mitigation · Negative
Slow Early LS
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1She's A FillyJ: Ashlee Strawbridge·T: A T Beckett157.5kg2 3 4 7 38: 0-1-23.401.38

Career

8: 0-1-2

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Phar Lap Raceway
1: 0-0-0
Track Wingatui
1: 0-0-1
Track Ascot Park
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 2147m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
4: 0-1-1

Last starts

3Wingatui1400m2 Oct 2026 · MDN · HEAVY102.6L
7Riverton2147m6 Apr 2026 · Rating 60 HCP · SOFT510.6L
4Riverton2000m8 Mar 2026 · MDN · HEAVY95.86L
3Gore2000m1 Feb 2026 · MDN · SOFT51L
2Ascot Park2215m22 Jan 2026 · MDN · SOFT60.4L
5Riverton1600m1 Jan 2026 · MDN · GOOD48.9L
6Ascot Park1400m13 Dec 2025 · MDN · SOFT63.5L
12Phar Lap Raceway1200m19 Nov 2025 · MDN F&M · GOOD49.1L

Insights

Attacks Line
Positive
Fastest L600m Sectionals Last Start in this field
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1

Comments

ILB

Made some ground late when 3rd last time at Wingatui and has drawn the rails. Should muster plenty of early toe. Can measure up against these.

RSIS

Came on strongly to finish 3rd last time at Wingatui and drawn nicely. Should muster plenty of early toe. Good chance in this.

2Angel's ArmyJ: Corey Campbell·T: Kelvin Tyler857.5kg10 7 10 2 109: 0-2-012.003.10

Career

9: 0-2-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Riverton
4: 0-2-0
Track Wingatui
3: 0-0-0
Track Ascot Park
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 0-2-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Wingatui1400m2 Oct 2026 · MDN · HEAVY1018.51L
2Riverton1400m8 May 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · HEAVY101.63L
10Ascot Park1200m19 Apr 2026 · MDN F&M · HEAVY1011.47L
7Riverton1600m6 Apr 2026 · MDN · SOFT54.76L
10Wingatui1600m27 Mar 2026 · MAIDEN · SOFT55.7L
7Riverton1400m8 Mar 2026 · MDN · HEAVY912.75L
8Ascot Park1200m14 Feb 2026 · MDN · SOFT74.86L
2Riverton1400m1 Jan 2026 · MDN · GOOD42.3L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 65% lower than Career Avg.
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward

Comments

ILB

Started at $9.00 and tailed off to finish 10th last start at Wingatui. Betting is the best guide.

RSIS

Started 8/1 and weakened to finish 10th last run at Wingatui on a heavy surface. Watch betting.

3Must BeeJ: Kendra Bakker·T: Kelvin Tyler557.5kg3 3 8 10 510: 0-0-24.601.70

Career

10: 0-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Te Aroha
4: 0-0-1
Track Pukekohe
1: 0-0-0
Track Ruakaka
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
6: 0-0-2
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Te Aroha1600m20 Sept 2026 · MDN HWT · HEAVY84.9L
10Matamata1400m16 Sept 2026 · MDN F&M · SOFT75.3L
8Te Aroha1400m3 Sept 2026 · MDN · HEAVY86.74L
3Rotorua1400m12 Aug 2026 · MDN F&M · HEAVY95.16L
3Te Aroha1400m26 July 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · HEAVY101.87L
5Avondale1200m15 July 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · HEAVY107.82L
7Te Aroha1150m5 July 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · HEAVY93.81L
5Te Rapa1400m30 Jan 2026 · MDN · SOFT52.96L

Insights

Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 32 days
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 7.5kg from LS run

Comments

ILB

At $7.00 didn't stay in touch when 5th last run at Te Aroha on a heavy rated track. Racing for a new trainer. Win will not surprise.

RSIS

Started at 6/1 and overrun in the late stages when 5th last run at Te Aroha on a heavy rated track. Coming to a new trainer. Good chance at a nice price.

4Risk MitigationJ: Terry Moseley·T: Ms J Burrows257.5kg8 3 3 8 719: 0-0-56.002.10

Career

19: 0-0-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed40%
Rating80%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Riccarton Park Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Phar Lap Raceway
4: 0-0-2
Track Wingatui
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
14: 0-0-4
Going Synthetic
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
7: 0-0-2

Last starts

7Phar Lap Raceway1600m23 Sept 2026 · MDN · SOFT63.25L
8Riccarton Park1200m12 Sept 2026 · MDN · HEAVY94.45L
3Wingatui1200m4 Sept 2026 · MAIDEN F&M · HEAVY106.6L
3Oamaru1200m14 Aug 2026 · MAIDEN · HEAVY92.7L
8Riccarton Park1400m25 June 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP F&M · SYNTHETIC6.95L
4Riccarton Park1200m27 May 2026 · MDN F&M · SYNTHETIC2.37L
9Riccarton Park1200m14 May 2026 · MDN · SYNTHETIC5.19L
4Riccarton Park Synthetic1200m30 Apr 2026 · MAIDEN · SYNTHETIC1.1L

Insights

Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 29 days

Comments

ILB

Odds of $10.00 and finished 7th last time at Phar Lap Raceway but has a positive gate. Shows good finishing speed. Watch betting.

RSIS

Started 9/1 and came in 7th last run at Phar Lap Raceway but has a positive stall. Has good finishing pace. Respect the betting.

5Aud's RewardJ: Abdul Najib·T: Ms K C Murphy757.5kg7 4 73: 0-0-015.003.60

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Phar Lap Raceway
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Phar Lap Raceway1600m4 Oct 2026 · MDN · SOFT55.68L
4Phar Lap Raceway1600m23 Sept 2026 · MDN · SOFT61.86L
7Phar Lap Raceway1600m6 Sept 2026 · MDN · SOFT69.24L

Comments

ILB

Odds of $31.00 and ran 7th last run at Phar Lap Raceway. This one has a big task.

RSIS

At 30/1 ran 7th last start at Phar Lap Raceway.

6DaniellishJ: Donovan Cooper·T: M E Forde657.5kg6 7 4 6 528: 0-0-223.004.00

Career

28: 0-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gore
2: 0-0-0
Track Rotorua
1: 0-0-0
Track Phar Lap Raceway
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
5: 0-0-0
Distance 2200m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 2215m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
14: 0-0-1
Going Soft
10: 0-0-1

Last starts

5Phar Lap Raceway2200m23 Sept 2026 · MDN · SOFT64.34L
6Wingatui1600m4 Sept 2026 · MAIDEN · HEAVY107.57L
4Oamaru1600m14 Aug 2026 · MAIDEN · HEAVY96.21L
7Riccarton Park2200m8 July 2026 · MDN · SYNTHETIC19.63L
6Phar Lap Raceway2200m7 June 2026 · MDN · HEAVY85.99L
12Wingatui2200m31 May 2026 · Rating 65 Benchmark* · HEAVY1016.6L
6Ascot Park1600m10 May 2026 · MDN · HEAVY105.25L
5Riverton1600m8 May 2026 · MDN · HEAVY104.46L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 19% better than Career Avg.
Dist Stats
Negative
Has struggled at this distance range
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start

Comments

ILB

Started at $11.00 and ran 5th last run at Phar Lap Raceway and back to a shorter trip. Others are better.

RSIS

Started 10/1 and ran 5th last time at Phar Lap Raceway and will be dropping in distance.

7Tick Tick BoomJ: Yogesh Atchamah·T: Sophie Price357.5kg12 4 7 9 55: 0-0-05.502.00

Career

5: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Pukekohe
1: 0-0-0
Track Riverton
1: 0-0-0
Track Ashburton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Ashburton1400m10 Oct 2026 · MDN · SOFT57.94L
9Riverton1400m8 May 2026 · MDN 2YO&UP · HEAVY106.89L
7Pukekura2000m21 Nov 2025 · MDN · SOFT512L
4Pukekohe1600m29 Oct 2025 · MDN F&M · HEAVY93.6L
12Te Aroha1400m22 Oct 2025 · MDN · SOFT57.2L

Insights

Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start

Comments

ILB

Was $26.00 and faded at the finish when 5th last run at Ashburton. Should race on the speed. Not interested today.

RSIS

At 25/1 lost momentum when 5th last time at Ashburton. Likely to be well placed early.

8Gem FireJ: Akshay Balloo·T: B & S Anderton957.5kg–6.002.10

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating100%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
On Debut
Positive
First race start

Comments

ILB

4yo debutant by Ancient Spirit for Brian Anderton & Shane Anderton. Follow the money.

RSIS

Racing as a debutant 4yo by Ancient Spirit for Brian Anderton & Shane Anderton. Betting as a guide.

9Suzy ParkerJ: Cooper Stumbles·T: Kelly Shearing455kg6 102: 0-0-013.003.40

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed80%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Phar Lap Raceway
1: 0-0-0
Track Riccarton Park
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Phar Lap Raceway1200m4 Oct 2026 · MDN 3YO · SOFT511.56L
6Riccarton Park1000m11 Apr 2026 · 2YO SW · SOFT55.91L

Insights

Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

ILB

Jumped at $41.00 and gave away some ground when 10th last start at Phar Lap Raceway but facing an increased distance. The large claim from Cooper Stumbles should help. Looks hopeful.

RSIS

Odds of 40/1 and gave away some ground when 10th last time at Phar Lap Raceway but facing a rise in trip. The large claim from Cooper Stumbles helps.

Odds correct as at 10:00 am AEDT. Odds can change.