Mt Gambier horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 3:34 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Mt Gambier, with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Wed 7 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Wed, 7 OctMt GambierChange

Race 1 — MGRC Social Club Schnitzel Night Friday, 20Th November Mdn Plate 1550m · jumps Wed 7 Oct, 2:10 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to our full preview of the MGRC Social Club Schnitzel Night Friday, 20Th November Mdn Plate over 1550m at Mt Gambier on a Soft5 track. The win market order sees Dali's Picasso heading the betting line, closely followed by Goochee Gal, Miss Delightful, and Black Hex in the early market hierarchy. With the race already jumped at 2:10 pm AEDT under fine weather, this field of maidens set up an interesting tactical puzzle across the middle distances on ground that offered some give.

Dali's Picasso comes in with strong claims after producing a super run coming from the back half in maiden company at Coleraine over 1400m when finishing second, and importantly has placed at this track before. Stripping fitter here, he looks poised to shake his maiden tag. Meanwhile, Goochee Gal showed a fine turn of foot from the back at this venue for her new trainer when running second over 1200m on Soft5 going, and she strips in better shape with the benefit of that solid outing. Black Hex also demands respect, having battled home in maiden company at Coleraine and shown a liking for softer ground earlier in the preparation.

Looking further down the speed maps and wider market, Flaws And Sins maps as the sole leader to dictate terms early, while the bulk of the field including Black Hex, Dali's Picasso, Taajwar, Goochee Gal, and Miss Delightful settle in the off-pace group. Miss Delightful brings a solid rally into the placings at Coleraine over 1600m to give her backers some hope on softer going, while Big Luck operates as the clear backmarker from barrier nine under Kate Walters. The value sits with those who can navigate the off-pace speed group efficiently over this 1550m journey.

Race notes

3UP MDN-SW,3yo+,Maiden
SOFT5
Fine
9 runners

Shortest win price

Dali's Picasso (3)

2.05

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

1Big Luck

Midfield

9Monsoon Indi

Offpace

2Black Hex
6Taajwar
7Goochee Gal
3Dali's Picasso
8Miss Delightful

Firststart

5Lord Timo

Leader

4Flaws And Sins

Big Luck · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Black Hex · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Dali's Picasso · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
Flaws And Sins · Negative
Trainer SR
Shane Jackson striking at just 11%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Big LuckJ: Kate Walters·T: Wayne Walters958kg81: 0-0-0$26.00$3.90

Career

1: 0-0-0

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Mount Gambier1200m22 May 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · SOFT712.9L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 15% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 31%
1st Up
Negative
May need this run

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (19-weeks). Well down the track this track on debut after blowing in the market. Locally trained but has a tricky draw. Clearly needs to improve and would need a strong betting push.

Well behind the fifth, Black Hex, when eighth of 11 on his debut (6f, here) at 50-1 in May; returning from a layoff here; entitled to respect.

2Black HexJ: Campbell Rawiller·T: Tammy Birnie158kg5 2 9 2 618: 0-2-1$8.00$2.30

Career

18: 0-2-1

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Mount Gambier
1: 0-0-0
Track Penola
1: 0-0-0
Track Burrumbeet
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-1
Going Soft
5: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Coleraine1600m25 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD35.06L
2Bordertown1550m11 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT62.5L
9Warracknabeal1600m29 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD411.7L
2Murtoa1600m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY84L
5Casterton1400m9 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT78.8L
6Ballarat Synthetic1500m12 July 2026 · MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC6.8L
5Ballarat Synthetic1500m7 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC4.2L
6Ballarat Synthetic1500m24 June 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC2.2L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Started $17 when battled home in Maiden company at Coleraine. Shown a liking for softer ground. Well into preparation now, among the dangers.

Close up behind Miss Delightful when sixth (Coleraine) 12 days ago; good and bad recent runs found on his CV and losing run totals 18; a lot on his plate here and may be vulnerable.

3Dali's PicassoJ: Harry Grace·T: James & Lisa Dodgson358kg2 4 7 10 219: 0-5-2$2.05$1.16

Career

19: 0-5-2

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Stony Creek
1: 0-0-0
Track Hanging Rock
1: 0-1-0
Track Mornington
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1454m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 0-5-1
Going Soft
7: 0-0-1

Last starts

2Coleraine1400m25 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD30.2L
10Bordertown1100m11 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT64.6L
7Murray Bridge1600m10 Apr 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT53.9L
4Stawell1600m5 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.4L
2Mount Gambier1400m22 Mar 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · GOOD40.4L
3Edenhope1450m7 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD43.1L
6Stony Creek2100m18 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT514.1L
2Hanging Rock1800m1 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Super run coming from back half in Maiden company at Coleraine at $18. Placed only other time here. Stripping fitter, looks poised to shake his maiden.

Beaten narrowly over 7f at Coleraine (maiden) last month; shown recent signs of improvement but hit and miss profile recently; passed over as looks more likely to place than win.

4Flaws And SinsJ: Kayla Crowther·T: Shane Jackson458kg9 62: 0-0-0$9.00$2.40

Career

2: 0-0-0

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Warrnambool1200m21 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.15L
9Warrnambool1200m3 Sept 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY814.6L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Shane Jackson striking at just 11%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Unable to make an impression at Warrnambool at second start. Sharper now, capable of making an impact.

Beaten 6l when sixth of seven over 6f at Warrnambool (maiden) last month; not had much racing - third outing here.

5Lord TimoJ: Toby Atkinson·T: Aaron Purcell658kg–$41.00$4.80

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Toby Atkinson current POT is 16% below Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 57% in L100 rides
Debutant
Positive
First race day appearance

Comments

AAP

Makes debut for the Aaron Purcell stable. No recorded trials. Look to market for a further guide.

The only newcomer; related to 1m4½f winner Omeo; strong claims with signs of encouragement in profile.

6TaajwarJ: Brooke King·T: D C Saxon858kg8 5 12 8 320: 0-1-3$14.00$3.10

Career

20: 0-1-3

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
8: 0-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
8: 0-1-1
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-1
Distance 906m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-1-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-1
Going Soft
7: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Mount Gambier1400m20 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT52.94L
8Warrnambool1200m3 Sept 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY89.6L
12Murray Bridge1400m22 July 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · SOFT524.4L
5Mount Gambier1200m12 July 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · HEAVY104.5L
8Murray Bridge1200m4 July 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT75L
13Morphettville1050m20 June 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · HEAVY1015.7L
2Mount Gambier1200m10 June 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · HEAVY92.9L
4Mount Gambier1550m22 May 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT74.9L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 35% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Dean Saxon in good form, out performing market 37%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Brooke King in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 58%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 31%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start

Comments

AAP

Gave a good sight making the frame this track. Place preferred option.

Ran well to finish third (beaten 3l) over 7f here (maiden) two weeks ago; best form so far in last two starts but still seeking a first success after 20 starts.

7Goochee GalJ: Melissa Julius·T: Heath Montgomerie256kg4 7 7 5 217: 0-1-1$4.80$1.60

Career

17: 0-1-1

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
3: 0-0-0
Track Murray Bridge
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 0-0-1
Going Soft
6: 0-1-0

Last starts

2Mount Gambier1200m20 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT51.57L
5Halidon1000m27 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)3.2L
7Strathalbyn1600m18 Feb 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD411L
7Penola1600m16 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD43.6L
4Murray Bridge2000m1 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD45.1L
10Strathalbyn2050m10 Dec 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD47.6L
4Clare1800m23 Nov 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD41.7L
5Gawler1500m6 Nov 2025 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · SOFT511.7L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 30% in Last 100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well

Comments

AAP

Showed a fine turn of foot from the back this venue for new trainer. Strips in better shape. Handy last start and can measure up.

Not disgraced when runner-up at 50-1 over 6f here (maiden) on first run for current trainer last month; improved form the last twice but attempts to score at the 18th time of asking.

8Miss DelightfulJ: Jack Hill·T: Aaron Purcell756kg5 6 9 9 214: 0-1-1$5.50$1.80

Career

14: 0-1-1

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-0
Track Terang
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
6: 0-1-1
Distance 1620m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-0-0

Last starts

2Coleraine1600m25 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD32.25L
9Hamilton1400m14 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT68.9L
9Hamilton1600m12 July 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY1034.1L
6Warrnambool2000m14 June 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY1014.02L
5Donald1620m9 June 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT75L
6Mount Gambier1550m22 May 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT76.1L
7Warrnambool1200m7 May 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY107.2L
6Camperdown1600m17 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD33.7L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -29% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Solid rally into the placings at Coleraine. Last run was solid and gives some hope.

A respectable second of 12 at Coleraine last month; has taken a step forward the last twice but yet to win after 14 starts.

9Monsoon IndiJ: Rochelle Milnes·T: Ms K Dufty556kg8 12 11 9 511: 0-0-1$34.00$4.40

Career

11: 0-0-1

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
4: 0-0-1
Track Casterton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1740m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1

Last starts

5Mount Gambier1400m20 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT55.76L
9Warrnambool1400m3 Sept 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · HEAVY823.3L
11Hamilton1200m1 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY1029L
12Geelong1740m11 July 2025 · 2UP MDN-SW · SOFT725.4L
8Donald1356m21 June 2025 · 2UP MDN-SW · HEAVY89L
7Casterton1000m8 June 2025 · 2UP MDN-SW · HEAVY817.3L
8Donald2200m17 Nov 2024 · Maiden · GOOD416.95L
7Hamilton1600m8 Nov 2024 · Maiden · GOOD44.8L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 83%

Comments

AAP

Went home tamely this venue at $21. Usually gets back. Looking elsewhere.

Close up behind Taajwar when fifth here over 7f (maiden) two weeks ago; this is her grade; definitely of interest.

Odds correct as at Wed 7 Oct, 2:10 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sun 20 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races