Randwick-Kensington horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 3:41 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Randwick-Kensington, with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Wed 7 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Wed, 7 OctRandwick-KensingtonChange

Race 2 — Asahi Super Dry (Bm64) 1250m · jumps Wed 7 Oct, 2:55 pm AEDT

Race preview

The Asahi Super Dry (Bm64) over 1250m at Randwick-Kensington on a Soft 7 track with overcast skies jumped at 2:55 pm AEDT. The win market is headed by Punxsutawney Phil, closely followed by Blitzgal, Sphere, and Rumdabar leading the line of chances in this 3-4yo benchmark event.

The value sits with Punxsutawney Phil, who comes into this race aiming for a hat-trick after letting down resolutely from the tail to score over 1150m at Illawarra Grange. Prepared by John O'Shea & Tom Charlton and piloted by Zac Lloyd, this runner handles the conditions and looks well-placed to step up to the 1250m trip. Conversely, the market's missed a strong case for Sphere from the Chris Waller stable, drawn ideally in barrier 1 with Siena Grima in the saddle. Sphere drops back fresh after leading and fighting on over this exact track and distance following a solid placing at Canterbury.

Looking further down the speed maps and records, several other runners share the leading duties or hold distinct tactical profiles. Blitzgal maps as a leader for Waller and comes off a useful run at Canterbury where it made ground from last at the turn, suggesting the extra metres on a soft surface could suit if the tempo unfolds favourably. The market has tightly wound around the favourites, but those chasing overs will find enough alternative form angles deeper in the field to challenge the top of the market.

Race notes

3&4Y BM64,3&4Y BM64 HCP,3-4yo,Benchmark 64
SOFT7
Overcast
7 runners

Shortest win price

Punxsutawney Phil (4)

1.95

Most career wins

Punxsutawney Phil and Sky Deck

2 each

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

13Aladdin's Girl

Onpace

4Punxsutawney Phil
7Sky Deck

Leader

9Rumdabar
11Sphere
5Blitzgal
12Good'N'You

Punxsutawney Phil · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 21% in Last 100 Rides
Blitzgal · Negative
Early Splits
Out of races with slow early tempos
Sky Deck · Negative
Jockey Booking
Chad Schofield current POT is 20% below Career Avg.
Rumdabar · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -43% POT in their L100 Races

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Phillip IslandScratched13––––

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed60%

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 12%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 40% Profit on Turnover

Comments

AAP

On pace, boxed away behind tearaway winner at Warwick Farm. On pacer. Can play a role with even breaks.

Gave good account to finish second at Warwick Farm where he had two of these rivals behind two weeks ago; this just his second run in a handicap.

2Our HuntressScratched9––––

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed80%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 28%
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on

Comments

AAP

Freshened. Ex Michael Freedman in QLD. Fair performance without threatening at Gold Coast at $6.50. Capable of making an impact.

Not disgraced when sixth (Gold Coast) six weeks ago; first start for new stable; this is competitive and only limited appeal; also engaged in race 7 at Randwick.

3ChappyScratched11––––

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 20% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Nash Rawiller 28% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Jockey
Positive
Nash Rawiller in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 28%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end

Comments

AAP

First-up (14-weeks). First run across the ditch for new stable. Ex L O'Sullivan & A Scott in New Zealand. Placed at Matamata first-up last campaign while tuned with 2 trials. Keep safe.

Has shown some recent improvement; won by just under 3l (Arawa Park) three months ago when opening his account at the fifth time of asking in a maiden; first start for new trainer; others have more pressing claims despite that win at Arawa Park.

4Punxsutawney PhilJ: Zac Lloyd·T: John O'Shea & Tom Charlton459.5kg1 3 4 1 12: 2-0-0$1.95$1.26

Career

2: 2-0-0

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Scone
1: 1-0-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0

Last starts

1Illawarra Grange1150m17 Sept 2026 · BM64 · GOOD4-2.5
1Scone1100m1 Sept 2026 · CGE MDN-SW · SOFT5-3.2
4Randwick1040m14 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.7L
3Randwick740m31 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1.4L
1Randwick1050m4 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.6

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 21% in Last 100 Rides
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Good Form
Positive
Very competitive in recent runs

Comments

AAP

On target for hat-trick. Let down resolutely from the tail at Illawarra Grange at second appearance. Looks ready for this trip. Definitely looks city class and can figure again.

Unbeaten through two career starts and seeking a hat-trick today; gained a 2½l success over 5½f at Illawarra Grange (handicap) last month; running in a handicap for only the second time; big chance.

5BlitzgalJ: James Mc Donald·T: C J Waller559.5kg5 10 6 4 54: 1-0-0$5.00$2.30

Career

4: 1-0-0

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed80%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 1-0-0
Track Canterbury
2: 0-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0

Last starts

5Canterbury1100m16 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.54L
4Rosehill1030m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.8L
6Hawkesbury1000m24 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)14.6L
10Warwick Farm1300m6 May 2026 · 3UP F&M BM72 HCP · GOOD412.8L
5Canterbury1250m22 Apr 2026 · 3&4Y BM64 · GOOD41.8L
1Rosehill1400m6 Apr 2026 · 3Y+MDN-SW · SOFT6-3.7
4Rosehill900m24 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)1.5L
3Rosehill900m10 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)2.6L

Insights

Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4kg weight here

Comments

AAP

Last at turn, ran on late at Canterbury off spell. Better for the outing. Soft proven, heavy unknown. Not out of this.

Far from disgraced (beaten 2½l) at Canterbury over 5½f (handicap) three weeks ago; she has a shout; also engaged in race 7 at Randwick.

6Steel KnightScratched12––––

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed80%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Key Rider
Positive
Mollie Fitzgerald 26% above market expected in L100 Rides
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Started $15 when safely held in Benchmark 72 company at Newcastle off extended spell. Others with more appeal.

Finished ninth of 12 over 4½f at Newcastle (handicap) dropped back in distance last month; meeting some horses in good form and looks opposable.

7Sky DeckJ: Chad Schofield·T: Peter Snowden259kg5 8 1 1 65: 2-0-0$11.00$3.60

Career

5: 2-0-0

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
4: 2-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 2-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 2-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Warwick Farm1200m23 Sept 2026 · 3Y BM68 · SOFT53.74L
1Kembla Grange1200m12 Sept 2026 · Benchmark 64 · GOOD4-1
1Kembla Grange1200m29 Aug 2026 · CGE MDN-SW · GOOD4-1.3
8Kembla Grange1200m16 May 2026 · CG&E MDN · SOFT52.4L
5Kembla Grange1300m29 Apr 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · GOOD43.2L
5Randwick1045m21 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.4L
3Canterbury898m10 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.7L
2Rosehill900m23 Dec 2025 · Barrier Trial1.6L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Chad Schofield current POT is 20% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 31% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
In Form
Positive
Racing in top form recently

Comments

AAP

Won a 1200m Benchmark 64 at Kembla Grange two back. Performance just fair at Warwick Farm at $21. Drawn to receive every chance. Can play a role.

Not beaten too far when sixth of ten at Warwick Farm 14 days ago; cannot be ignored as is no stranger to the winners' enclosure.

8PorticoScratched8––––

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed60%

Insights

Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs

Comments

AAP

On speed, had enough in the tank for the minors E&G (Bm64) at Hawkesbury. Hard fit, one for multiples.

Admirably consistent; went down by just under 2l when third at Hawkesbury over 5½f (handicap) last month.

9RumdabarJ: Kerrin Mc Evoy·T: K A Lees757kg2 11 1 5 53: 1-0-0$8.00$3.10

Career

3: 1-0-0

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 1-0-0
Track Randwick
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0

Last starts

5Newcastle1000m23 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.9L
5Randwick1400m11 July 2026 · 2Y HCP · HEAVY93.9L
1Newcastle1300m27 June 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT7-2
11Randwick1100m6 June 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT57.3L
2Gosford800m18 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)0.1L
4Newcastle800m4 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4L
4Beaumont850m12 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial2.9L
1Scone900m30 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial-3.8

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -43% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 15%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Fronting up for second campaign (12-weeks). Tuned up with a couple of trials. Has some claims fresh in this affair.

Well held having been fancied when fifth over 7f here (handicap) three months ago; certainly not out of it if replicating the best of his form.

10The ThorncasterScratched3––––

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Well back and never a factor at Warwick Farm second-up. Stripping fitter, has some claims.

Has arguably shown improved form the last twice; out of the frame (beaten 4½l in ninth) at Warwick Farm last month; makes limited appeal.

11SphereJ: Siena Grima·T: C J Waller157.5kg7 1 7 3 510: 1-1-5$6.50$2.75

Career

10: 1-1-5

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Warwick Farm
3: 0-1-1
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-1
Track Randwick Kensington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 0-1-3
Going Soft
5: 1-0-2

Last starts

5Randwick Kensington1250m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.2L
3Canterbury1250m26 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT71.1L
7Rosehill1200m1 Aug 2026 · 3&4Y BM72 · SOFT59.6L
1Newcastle1250m14 July 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · SOFT5-0.9
7Rosehill900m10 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)7.2L
7Rosehill900m30 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)4.5L
3Warwick Farm1400m11 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT61.8L
3Rosehill1200m25 Feb 2026 · F&M MDN-SW · GOOD41.3L

Insights

Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 28 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Freshened. Placed 3yo+ F&M (Bm72) at Canterbury 26 Aug. Led, gave away final stages this track over this journey. Right in the mix.

Running consistently and useful at this level; not beaten too far (just over 2l) four weeks ago.

12Good'N'YouJ: Tom Sherry·T: G Ryan & S Alexiou658kg1 7 7 5 34: 1-0-2$9.00$3.40

Career

4: 1-0-2

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-2
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
3: 1-0-2
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Newcastle1250m19 Sept 2026 · BM64 · GOOD40.31L
5Rosehill900m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5L
7Rosehill900m21 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)3.3L
7Hawkesbury1300m19 Feb 2026 · Benchmark 64 · GOOD43.4L
1Newcastle1200m2 Feb 2026 · MDN · SOFT6-0.5
3Newcastle1200m15 Jan 2026 · MDN · SOFT51.6L
3Rosehill900m2 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial0.4L
2Rosehill900m24 Oct 2025 · Barrier Trial1L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -29% POT in their L100 Races
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Midfield, great effort running into third (Bm64) at Newcastle after lengthy absence. Will be fitter second-up. Could get into the placings.

Went close when third at Newcastle two weeks ago.

13Aladdin's GirlJ: Tommy Berry·T: C J Waller356.5kg3 3 8 4 18: 1-0-3$41.00$8.50

Career

8: 1-0-3

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed80%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-1
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 1-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1850m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1900m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 1-0-2
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1

Last starts

1Illawarra Grange1300m17 Sept 2026 · MDN · GOOD4-0.2
4Rosehill1030m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)7.8L
8Newcastle1850m19 May 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT79.5L
3Newcastle1900m2 May 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD40.8L
3Kembla Grange1500m18 Apr 2026 · F&M MDN-SW · SOFT52.2L
5Rosehill1400m6 Apr 2026 · 3Y+MDN-SW · SOFT610.7L
9Rosehill900m2 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)9L
4Randwick1050m16 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.9L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Emerged from midfield to get up in final strides at Illawarra Grange. Can again play a role.

Narrow success in a handicap, breaking her duck at the eighth time of asking (Illawarra Grange) last month; signs of improvement on last two runs; also engaged in race 7 at Randwick.

Odds correct as at Wed 7 Oct, 3:00 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Wed 9 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races