Blackhawks v Canadiens: where the value sits at United Center

The Chicago Blackhawks welcome the Montreal Canadiens to United Center on Saturday, 24 October at 11:00 am AEDT, with both sides nursing fresh wounds from midweek setbacks. Chicago sit 28th on the ladder with a 3-6-0 record, while Montreal occupy 20th spot at 4-3-2. The Blackhawks are leaking goals at an alarming rate — 4.0 per game — and the Canadiens, despite their own defensive issues, arrive with enough firepower to exploit that frailty.

Montreal are priced at 1.70 on the win market, Chicago at 2.15. The Canadiens' position as favourites reflects a side that has shown more consistency through nine games, even if their last start ended in disappointment. Chicago's home form offers flickering hope — two wins from four at United Center — but the underlying numbers tell a grimmer story. The bold play sits with the visitors to collect the two points on the road.

Who wins at United Center?

Chicago's last five overall reads two wins, three losses, but that record flatters a side that has been outscored 19–12 across the stretch. The Blackhawks are coming off a 0-4 shutout loss to Dallas Stars at home on Sunday, 18 October — a performance that exposed their offensive limitations and defensive porosity. Prior to that blank, they had posted consecutive home wins over Winnipeg Jets (4-3, Friday 16 October) and Pittsburgh Penguins (5-3, Wednesday 14 October), but those victories were sandwiched between heavier defeats to Carolina Hurricanes (2-5, Sunday 11 October) and New York Islanders (1-4 away, Friday 9 October). At home this month, Chicago have averaged 2.8 goals for and conceded 3.8 against across four outings — a negative goal differential that undermines any notion of a fortress at United Center.

Montreal's recent form shows three wins and two losses over their last five, with an average of 3.2 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. The Canadiens are coming off a 3-4 home loss to San Jose Sharks on Wednesday, 21 October, but that followed a 4-3 home win over Buffalo Sabres (Sunday, 18 October) and sits within a run that includes three one-goal victories in their last four: 4-3 over Buffalo again (Wednesday, 14 October) and a 1-0 shutout of Detroit Red Wings (Sunday, 11 October). The lone road result in that sample was a 4-5 overtime loss to Washington Capitals (Thursday, 15 October), a tight contest that underlines Montreal's ability to stay competitive away from home.

Nick Suzuki leads the Canadiens' offence with five goals and seven assists, supported by Lane Hutson's nine points (two goals, seven assists) from the blue line and Cole Caufield's six goals. Chicago counter with Anton Frondell (one goal, five assists), Teuvo Teräväinen (two goals, three assists), and Tyler Bertuzzi (two goals, three assists) — a productive trio, but one operating behind a side that ranks 28th for a reason. Montreal's 56.6 per cent Corsi share dwarfs Chicago's 42.9 per cent, a territorial advantage that should translate into more scoring chances at United Center.

The Canadiens' power play sits at 13.79 per cent, marginally better than Chicago's 12.5 per cent, while Montreal's penalty kill (78.38 per cent) also edges the Blackhawks' 74.07 per cent. Save percentage favours Montreal fractionally (85.7 per cent vs Chicago's 86.9 per cent), but the raw goals-against tallies — 3.78 per game for the Canadiens, 4.0 for the Blackhawks — suggest Chicago's goaltending is under heavier siege. Expected goals metrics reinforce the picture: Chicago have generated 16 expected goals for and allowed 23 against; Montreal 19.4 for and 15.9 against. The visitors are both creating more and conceding fewer quality chances.

Limited recent head-to-head history in the pack means we lean on season form and underlying numbers. Montreal have the better record, the superior possession metrics, and a more balanced offensive-defensive profile. Chicago's home wins this month came against mid-table opposition in tight games; facing a Canadiens side with scoring depth and a territorial edge, the Blackhawks' defensive vulnerabilities loom large. At 1.70, Montreal represent the value play among our nhl picks for Saturday morning.

The risks for the visitors

Montreal's last start was a home loss, and back-to-back defeats have been a feature of their season — they've already dropped three regulation games and two in overtime. Chicago, for all their struggles, have shown they can put goals on the board in bunches at United Center (five against Pittsburgh, four against Winnipeg), and if Montreal's 85.7 per cent save rate slips, this could turn into a track meet that favours neither defence. The Canadiens' 3.78 goals-against average is hardly watertight, and Chicago's power play, while ranked poorly, has the personnel to capitalise if Lane Hutson or another Montreal defender takes an ill-timed penalty.

Chicago's two recent home wins came by a single goal each, and their average win margin at United Center this month is just 1.5 goals — proof that when they do prevail, it's rarely comfortable. If the Blackhawks can keep this tight through two periods, a late push in front of their home crowd could swing momentum. Montreal's 56.6 per cent Corsi dominance means they should control the puck, but translating possession into a two-goal cushion is far from given. The Canadiens have won three of their last four by a single goal, and their average win margin over the last five is exactly one goal. This shapes as another one-goal contest, and in those scenarios, a home bounce or a fortunate deflection can flip the result.