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Ararat (VIC) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Ararat (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sun 8 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sun, 8 NovArarat (VIC)Change

Race 1 — Ararat RSL Sir Brudenell White Hwt (Bm70) 4000m · jumps

Race preview

Welcome to Ararat for a testing assignment over the 4000m journey on a soft 5 track under fine skies. The market has stamped Legend Beast as the clear elect, closely followed by Three Reel Roses, Eye For An Eye, and Semper Fortis in the early win order. Punters assessing this extreme distance test will need to weigh up stamina reserves across a capacity field of battlers and stayers, where the value sits with runners proven at the trip rather than those simply making up the numbers.

The form supporting the market elect Legend Beast reads with genuine authority following a display of grit and determination to score over 2400m at Swan Hill before a solid runner-up finish at Warrnambool. Prepared by Ben, Will & Jd Hayes and piloted by Tom Ryan from barrier 11, this gelding recorded the fastest overall finishing sectionals last start and should relish the rise in distance despite shouldering 69kg. Further down the market, Semper Fortis comes into calculations for Symon Wilde after sound minor placings at Mortlake and Avoca, though rising in grade means this stayer strikes a much harder assignment today from barrier 1.

Race notes

  • 3yo+,BM70 HWGT,BM70 HWGT HCP,Benchmark 70
  • SOFT5
  • Fine
  • 12 runners

Shortest win price

Legend Beast (1)

3.50

Most career wins

Semper Fortis

6-7-3 from 42 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 6Trump Card

Offmidfield

  • 12Final Impact
  • 1Legend Beast
  • 4I Love This Song
  • 13Kawhia

Midfield

  • 7Semper Fortis
  • 10Black Rutile
  • 9Topspin
  • 11Legs Power

Onpace

  • 3Matthew Mark
  • 8Three Reel Roses

Leader

  • 2Eye For An Eye

  • Legend Beast · Positive

    Fast Finisher

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Eye For An Eye · Positive

    Trainer ROI

    Runners from this stable currently going at 15% POT in L100 Runners

  • Matthew Mark · Negative

    Jockey Booking

    Less suitable jockey engaged

  • I Love This Song · Positive

    Profitable Trainer

    Stable runners going at 46% POT in L100 Runners

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1Legend BeastJ: Tom Ryan·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes1169kg4 8 6 2 119: 3-3-1$3.50$1.50

Career

19: 3-3-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Wingatui

    2: 0-1-0

  • Track Sandown

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track Riccarton Park

    2: 0-1-1

  • Distance 2000m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 2021m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    7: 1-1-0

  • Going Heavy

    6: 1-2-0

  • Going Soft

    6: 1-0-1

Last starts

  1. 1Swan Hill2400m27 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD4-0.46
  2. 2Warrnambool3100m1 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY92.5L
  3. 6Swan Hill2400m22 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.65L
  4. 8Sandown2400m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT77.9L
  5. 4Seymour2021m27 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY82.2L
  6. 7Geelong1730m14 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY810L
  7. 6Bendigo1600m30 July 2026 · 2UP BM66 HCP · SOFT63.6L
  8. 6Pakenham Synthetic1000m7 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SYNTHETIC5.5L

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -34% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 23% POT in L100 Runners

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Solid Run LS

    Positive

    Won last start

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Sheer display of grit and determination at Swan Hill. Should relish the rise in distance and big weights don't seem to worry him.

ILB

Romped home to win last start at Swan Hill and going up in distance. Has a great burst of speed late. Showing improvement in recent outings. Should give this a shake.

RP

He accounted for four of his rivals over 1m4f at Swan Hill (handicap) when getting the job done by half a length last month; others have more pressing claims as has his stamina to prove at this trip.

RSIS

Bold effort when winning last run at Swan Hill and facing an increased distance. Possesses good finishing pace. Form has been improving over recent runs. Well respected contender.

2Eye For An EyeJ: Paul Hamblin·T: Andrea Leek367kg1 6 5 10 627: 5-2-3$7.50$2.50

Career

27: 5-2-3

Rating · IRD

89

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 1-0-0

  • Second-up

    3: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Mornington

    4: 0-1-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Caulfield

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 2025m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2200m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2400m

    3: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    13: 2-1-0

  • Going Heavy

    2: 1-0-0

  • Going Soft

    11: 2-1-3

Last starts

  1. 6Mornington2400m1 Nov 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.4L
  2. 10Cranbourne2025m23 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD38.89L
  3. 5Pakenham Synthetic2200m2 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · SYNTHETIC7.65L
  4. 6Mornington1500m17 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.53L
  5. 1Hamilton3200m7 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY8-1.3
  6. 1Pakenham2550m2 Apr 2026 · BM66 · GOOD4-0.4
  7. 5Cranbourne2025m27 Mar 2026 · BM62 · SOFT65.7L
  8. 4Warrnambool2800m19 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)4L

Insights

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 15% POT in L100 Runners

  • Primed

    Positive

    Fitter here racing on a quick back up

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

On pace but folded up quickly at Mornington. Drawn to get an economic trail. Has some claims.

ILB

On a quick back up. Was $6.00 and didn't find the line when 6th last time at Mornington but facing a weaker group of contenders. Racing over extra ground. Will go close.

RP

Record shows he knows where the winning post is (wins-runs career record of 6-27); didn't run too badly when out of the frame at Mornington (beaten 4½l) over 1m4f (handicap) last Sunday; should be thereabouts.

RSIS

On a quick back up. Started 5/1 and didn't find the line when 6th last time at Mornington but competing at a lower class. Should jump out and bowl along. Solid chance.

3Matthew MarkJ: Bradley Shane Rantall·T: Ms C Graesser1066kg1 7 7 2 429: 5-2-1$12.00$3.50

Career

29: 5-2-1

Rating · IRD

84

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    6: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    5: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    4: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    3: 1-0-0

  • Track Warracknabeal

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Geelong

    7: 0-0-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    7: 1-1-0

  • Distance 1800m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2200m

    2: 1-1-0

  • Distance 2240m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    13: 3-1-1

  • Going Good

    8: 1-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    8: 1-1-0

Last starts

  1. 4Warrnambool3100m1 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY98.4L
  2. 2Warrnambool3100m20 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY100.4L
  3. 7Geelong2400m31 July 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT78.22L
  4. 7Geelong2465m10 July 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY82.1L
  5. 1Warrnambool2000m14 June 2026 · BM56 HWGT · HEAVY10-0.8
  6. 5Stawell1600m18 May 2026 · 2UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY911.1L
  7. 7Geelong2450m12 Dec 2025 · BM66 · GOOD36.2L
  8. 1Hamilton2200m7 Nov 2025 · 0 - 56 · SOFT-0.4

Insights

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Less suitable jockey engaged

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Stable In Form

    Positive

    Stable going well. Out performing market by 67%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

Comments

AAP

Safely held but not totally disgraced in choppy conditions at Warrnambool as a betting firmer. Major player.

ILB

Was $5.50 and pushed past some when 4th last run at Warrnambool. Has some claims.

RP

Found life tough when 8l back in fourth at Warrnambool over 1m7½f (handicap) splitting Legend Beast, Motiver and Final Impact last month; chance as shown he can get his head in front.

RSIS

Odds of 9/2 and ran on into 4th last run at Warrnambool.

4I Love This SongJ: Arron Lynch·T: J F Macmillan865.5kg3 3 10 1 643: 4-2-6$10.00$3.10

Career

43: 4-2-6

Rating · IRD

80

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Morphettville

    5: 0-0-1

  • Track Strathalbyn

    14: 1-0-2

  • Track Murray Bridge

    8: 0-1-1

  • Distance 1900m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2050m

    9: 1-0-1

  • Distance 3150m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    24: 1-2-4

  • Going Heavy

    6: 1-0-1

  • Going Soft

    13: 2-0-1

Last starts

  1. 6Morphettville2541m17 Oct 2026 · BM80 · GOOD38.79L
  2. 1Mount Gambier3150m20 Sept 2026 · BM75 · SOFT5-0.69
  3. 10Morphettville2525m12 Sept 2026 · BM78 · GOOD410.6L
  4. 3Murray Bridge2000m9 Sept 2026 · 0-56 · GOOD42.9L
  5. 3Naracoorte2000m28 Aug 2026 · 0-56 · HEAVY94.5L
  6. 7Murray Bridge2000m12 Aug 2026 · 0-58 · HEAVY83.3L
  7. 5Strathalbyn2050m29 July 2026 · 0-56 · SOFT74.2L
  8. 4Murray Bridge1800m17 July 2026 · BM56 · SOFT61.7L

Insights

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 46% POT in L100 Runners

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Mt Gambier winner two back. Safely held but not totally disgraced at Morphettville as an outsider. Could get into the placings.

ILB

Jumped at $71.00 and peaked on the run when 6th last start at Morphettville and competing at a lower grade. Likely to get back. Stepping up in trip. Form will be tested here.

RP

Finished sixth, beaten a fair way over 1m4½f at Morphettville (handicap) dropped back in distance last month; easy enough to take on stepping into the unknown over new trip.

RSIS

At 70/1 peaked in the run home when 6th last time at Morphettville and facing a weaker grade. Gets back and needs luck. Rising in distance.

5MotiverScratched10––––

Career

20: 2-3-2

Rating · IRD

20

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-1-1

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Geelong

    2: 0-1-1

  • Track Pakenham

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Cranbourne

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 3080m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1620m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    12: 1-3-1

  • Going Heavy

    6: 1-0-1

  • Going Soft

    2: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 4Swan Hill2400m27 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD41.96L
  2. 6Warrnambool3100m1 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY910L
  3. 4Mornington3080m17 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.75L
  4. 1Warrnambool2350m3 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · HEAVY8-0.5
  5. 7Murtoa2050m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY810.4L
  6. 6Warrnambool3172m23 July 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY1051.2L
  7. 3Geelong2465m10 July 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY80.9L
  8. 5Echuca2100m23 June 2026 · BM56 · HEAVY1011L

Insights

  • Form Revival

    Positive

    Turning form around with last couple

Comments

AAP

Ran on okay without troubling at Swan Hill. More ground a plus. Super fit from racing, can play a role.

ILB

Started at $6.50 and ran past a few when 4th last time at Swan Hill and facing a rise in trip.

RP

2l fourth to Legend Beast over 1m4f at Swan Hill (handicap) when producing a respectable effort last month; hard enough to fancy with new trip an unknown.

RSIS

Odds of 11/2 and picked up some ground to run 4th last start at Swan Hill and facing an increased distance.

6Trump CardJ: Luca Remondet·T: Andrea Leek565kg12 8 5 6 829: 2-6-6$11.00$3.30

Career

29: 2-6-6

Rating · IRD

89

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 1-1-1

  • Second-up

    2: 1-0-1

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Sunshine Coast

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track Eagle Farm

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Moe

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    5: 0-1-2

  • Distance 1600m

    3: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1680m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    5: 0-1-2

  • Going Soft

    12: 1-2-3

  • Going Good

    12: 1-3-1

Last starts

  1. 8Moe2400m24 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD412.75L
  2. 6Warrnambool2350m3 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · HEAVY81.5L
  3. 5Doomben2060m5 Aug 2026 · CL3 · GOOD46.4L
  4. 8Sunshine Coast2240m19 July 2026 · BM60 · SOFT55.2L
  5. 12Ipswich2500m20 June 2026 · BM78 · SOFT55.1L
  6. 2Ipswich2200m30 May 2026 · BM68 · HEAVY94.6L
  7. 3Ipswich1980m21 May 2026 · BM60 · HEAVY91.13L
  8. 4Ipswich2150m4 May 2026 · BM68 · SOFT55.6L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 15% POT in L100 Runners

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 31%

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Fresh

    Positive

    Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Finished well down the track in 3yo+ (Bm56) at Moe last outing. Remote place hope at best.

ILB

Back from a let up. Jumped at $15.00 and lost ground in the run home when 8th last run at Moe but rising in distance. Has very good closing speed. Strong prospects in this race.

RP

Held when eighth beaten 13l at Moe over 1m4f (handicap) 45 days ago; does not win very often; now upped in trip and one to tread carefully with.

RSIS

Freshened up. Started 14/1 and tailed off to finish 8th last start at Moe but facing a rise in trip. One of the punters top hopes.

7Semper FortisJ: William Mc Carthy·T: Symon Wilde165kg6 11 10 3 342: 6-7-3$8.00$2.70

Career

42: 6-7-3

Rating · IRD

89

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    9: 1-1-1

  • Second-up

    7: 1-2-0

  • Third-up

    6: 1-2-0

  • Fourth-up

    6: 0-1-0

  • Track Newcastle

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Warwick Farm

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Randwick

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1606m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 2040m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    17: 2-2-2

  • Going Heavy

    7: 1-2-0

  • Going Soft

    18: 3-3-1

Last starts

  1. 3Mortlake2000m31 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT52.75L
  2. 3Avoca1860m17 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.85L
  3. 10Coleraine2250m25 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD311.37L
  4. 11Warrnambool2350m3 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · HEAVY812.6L
  5. 6Warrnambool2000m20 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY109.3L
  6. 9Geelong1700m31 July 2026 · 2UP BM62 HCP · SOFT75.1L
  7. 11Kembla Grange2400m13 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM68 HCP · SOFT615.2L
  8. 6Canterbury1900m27 Feb 2026 · 3UP BM78 HCP · SOFT67L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -53% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 40% POT in L100 Runners

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Draw Suits

    Positive

    Well drawn inside

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Sound effort without troubling winner at Mortlake. Rising in grade. Strikes a harder race.

ILB

On a short back up. Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd last run at Mortlake and will appreciate a good alley. Going over more ground. Could feature here.

RP

Solid effort when beaten just under 3l to finish third at Mortlake over 1m2f (handicap) last Saturday; producing consistent form; every chance if backing up last run.

RSIS

On a quick turnaround. Hit the line well when 3rd beaten by 2 3/4L last run at Mortlake and going over more ground. Drawn nicely. Not at all out of this race.

8Three Reel RosesJ: Darryl Horner·T: Henry Dwyer1265kg1 5 4 3 924: 2-4-2$4.80$1.95

Career

24: 2-4-2

Rating · IRD

91

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Warrnambool

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Donald

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2000m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2200m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2350m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    6: 0-2-2

  • Going Good

    13: 1-1-0

  • Going Heavy

    5: 1-1-0

Last starts

  1. 9Swan Hill2400m27 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD43.39L
  2. 3Mount Gambier3150m20 Sept 2026 · BM75 · SOFT50.81L
  3. 4Warrnambool2350m3 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · HEAVY81.1L
  4. 5Murtoa2050m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY88.2L
  5. 1Moe2447m21 July 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY9-0.5
  6. 4Bendigo2400m25 June 2026 · BM62 · SOFT64.8L
  7. 7Donald2200m9 June 2026 · BM62 · SOFT75.7L
  8. 3Echuca2112m23 May 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT71.3L

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 26% better than Career Avg.

  • Trainer Career

    Negative

    Trainer Career S/R is 5%

  • Jockey Booking

    Positive

    Darryl Horner 28% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 35%

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Swan Hill. Others more persuasive.

ILB

Started at $11.00 and not in contention when 9th last start at Swan Hill but facing an increased distance. Strong claims in this.

RP

Ninth of 12 at Swan Hill over 1m4f (handicap) last month; others more appealing with stamina to prove at this new trip.

RSIS

Was 10/1 and tailed off when 9th last time at Swan Hill but going over extra ground. Expecting a solid performance.

9TopspinJ: Jordan Hart·T: Joanne Mugavin765kg1 1 7 4 833: 3-5-5$26.00$4.60

Career

33: 3-5-5

Rating · IRD

81

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Cranbourne

    5: 1-2-0

  • Track Hamilton

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track St Arnaud

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 3300m

    2: 1-0-0

  • Distance 3200m

    5: 0-0-2

  • Distance 1800m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    11: 1-1-1

  • Going Heavy

    6: 0-2-1

  • Going Soft

    15: 2-2-3

Last starts

  1. 8St Arnaud2000m24 Oct 2026 · HCP · GOOD311.45L
  2. 4Hamilton3200m7 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY87.3L
  3. 7Pakenham2500m19 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · SOFT53.7L
  4. 1Hamilton2800m11 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)-2
  5. 1Pakenham2500m5 Mar 2026 · BM62 · GOOD4-1.25
  6. 1Warrnambool2800m26 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-5
  7. 7Horsham2100m24 Feb 2026 · BM56 · GOOD33.8L
  8. 5Naracoorte2000m8 Feb 2026 · CL1-SW · GOOD47.5L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are under performing market expectations by -54%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 27% POT in L100 Runners

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 31%

  • Needs To Imp

    Negative

    Finished towards the tail last start

  • Blinkers Off

    Positive

    Blinkers coming off this start

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Dropped out to last and never sighted at St Arnaud off long spell. Better conditioned. Warrants attention.

ILB

Jumped at $61.00 and underperformed when 8th last time at St Arnaud but lining up against easier rivals. Blinkers go off for the first time and facing an increased distance. Prefer a return to something a lot easier.

RP

Finished last of eight over 1m2f at St Arnaud (handicap) 15 days ago; interesting as shown he can get his head in front.

RSIS

Odds of 60/1 and average performance when 8th last time at St Arnaud but competing at a lower level of competition. Racing over a longer distance.

10Black RutileJ: Jordan Ratcliffe·T: Andrew Bobbin265kg5 2 4 2 417: 1-4-0$15.00$3.80

Career

17: 1-4-0

Rating · IRD

80

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Kerang

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Mortlake

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Geelong

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1550m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1800m

    3: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1900m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    10: 1-2-0

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    5: 0-2-0

Last starts

  1. 4Mortlake2000m31 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT53.25L
  2. 2Hamilton2200m10 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT50.4L
  3. 4Echuca2112m19 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD41.31L
  4. 2Casterton2000m30 Aug 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT52L
  5. 5Swan Hill2400m28 July 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT511.2L
  6. 4Mildura1900m18 July 2026 · 2yo+ · GOOD42L
  7. 6Casterton2000m5 July 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY810.2L
  8. 6Mount Gambier1800m10 June 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY97.1L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 12% POT in L100 Runners

  • Drawn In

    Positive

    Suited drawn down low

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

  • Long Prep

    Negative

    Yet to find the winners stall this prep

Comments

AAP

Went close at Hamilton 10 Oct. Kept finding the line without threatening at Mortlake. Very fit, could give some cheek at odds.

ILB

Racing on a quick back up. Started at $12.00 and passed some rivals in the late stages when 4th last time at Mortlake and has a good draw. Slim chance.

RP

Not disgraced when fourth of ten over 1m2f at Mortlake (handicap, close behind Semper Fortis) last week; producing fairly consistent form; passed over.

RSIS

Backing up quickly for this race. Started 11/1 and improved when 4th last time at Mortlake and rising in trip. Has a good draw.

11Legs PowerJ: Cillin Leonard·T: Patrick Payne965kg1 8 6 6 716: 1-2-3$10.00$3.10

Career

16: 1-2-3

Rating · IRD

77

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Goulburn

    3: 0-1-1

  • Track Kembla Grange

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Grafton

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1625m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1815m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1850m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-0-2

  • Going Soft

    6: 1-1-1

  • Going Good

    8: 0-1-0

Last starts

  1. 7Swan Hill2400m27 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD43.08L
  2. 6Colac1200m22 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)13.3L
  3. 6Rosehill2400m30 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD431.18L
  4. 8Newcastle1850m18 Sept 2026 · 3UP CL1-SW · GOOD38.22L
  5. 1Grafton3120m19 July 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT5-1.5
  6. 9Scone2200m29 June 2026 · CL1-SW · SOFT717.1L
  7. 2Warren2400m1 June 2026 · BM58 · SOFT73.7L
  8. 3Gunnedah2150m24 May 2026 · 3UP CL1 & MDN-SW · SOFT54.7L

Insights

  • Rider

    Negative

    Negative rider change today

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 17% POT in L100 Runners

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Not disgraced at Swan Hill for new trainer at $8.50. First try at 4000m. Looks up against it.

ILB

Started $8.50 and couldn't stay in touch when 7th last run at Swan Hill but rising in trip. Would need to step up.

RP

Finished seventh, beaten 3l by Legend Beast over 1m4f at Swan Hill (handicap) when not beaten that far two weeks ago on debut for this trainer; form of the trainer is a plus; steps into the unknown over new trip and looks risky.

RSIS

Started 15/2 and didn't attack the line when 7th last start at Swan Hill but going over extra ground.

12Final ImpactJ: David Fisher·T: Jamie Barry465kg5 9 6 10 854: 2-6-5$126.00$15.00

Career

54: 2-6-5

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating20%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    6: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    4: 0-0-1

  • Third-up

    4: 0-1-1

  • Fourth-up

    4: 1-1-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Stawell

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Te Aroha

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1750m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    26: 2-2-3

  • Going Heavy

    9: 0-1-1

  • Going Soft

    19: 0-3-1

Last starts

  1. 8Warrnambool3100m1 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY926.46L
  2. 10Mount Gambier3150m20 Sept 2026 · BM75 · SOFT510.05L
  3. 6Hamilton2200m14 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · SOFT69.7L
  4. 9Warrnambool2350m3 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · HEAVY87.7L
  5. 5Casterton2000m9 Aug 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT74.3L
  6. 4Hamilton1600m1 Aug 2026 · 0 - 56 · HEAVY105.3L
  7. 11Geelong2400m22 May 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT55.1L
  8. 5Stawell2000m18 May 2026 · 0-56 · HEAVY95L

Insights

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 40% POT in L100 Runners

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 31%

  • Gap In Runs

    Negative

    Not raced for 38 days

Comments

AAP

Failed to threaten in rain affected going at Warrnambool at cricket score odds. Hard to warm to here.

ILB

Was $151.00 and weakened to finish 8th last start at Warrnambool on a heavy surface. Might be ridden for luck. Struggling this campaign. Too much luck needed to come into contention.

RP

Infrequent winner; was tailed off at Warrnambool over 1m7½f (handicap) five weeks ago; passed over with stamina to prove over this new distance.

RSIS

At 150/1 didn't threaten when 8th last time at Warrnambool. Likely to get back in the run. Yet to fire of late.

13KawhiaJ: Dean Parker·T: Dane Smith665kg4 3 10 7 1127: 1-3-2$34.00$5.50

Career

27: 1-3-2

Rating · IRD

75

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 1-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    3: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track Swan Hill

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Geelong

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Stawell

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1500m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1600m

    5: 1-1-0

  • Distance 1740m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    8: 0-0-1

  • Going Heavy

    14: 1-3-1

  • Going Soft

    5: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 11Swan Hill2400m27 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD44.89L
  2. 7Echuca2100m19 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.83L
  3. 10Manangatang2000m10 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD311.05L
  4. 3Swan Hill2400m22 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.75L
  5. 4Hamilton2200m14 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · SOFT62.7L
  6. 12Warracknabeal2000m15 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · SOFT610.6L
  7. 6Hamilton1600m1 Aug 2026 · 0 - 56 · HEAVY106.4L
  8. 6Warrnambool3200m14 June 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY107.1L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 39% in Last 100 Rides

  • Trainer Career

    Negative

    Trainer Career S/R is 3%

  • Key Rider

    Positive

    Dean Parker 36% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 37%

  • Trainer ROI

    Negative

    Trainers runners currently losing 46% Profit on Turnover

  • Key Jockey

    Positive

    Dean Parker winning at 21% POT in last 100 rides

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 31%

Comments

AAP

Last success was 24 Aug 2024. Started $41 when safely held in Benchmark 62 company at Swan Hill. Needs to recapture form.

ILB

Was $41.00 and weakened under pressure when 11th last start at Swan Hill but going up in distance. Prefers to settle towards the rear. Much prefer the look of others in this race.

RP

Finished 11th of 12 at Swan Hill last month upped to 1m4f.

RSIS

Started 40/1 and weakened to finish 11th last time at Swan Hill but stepping up in distance. Might be ridden for luck.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.