Shortest win price
General Blu (2)
1.45
The Ararat Rural City Council Maiden Plate is a 1100-metre tussle for three-year-olds and older on a Good 4 track at 2:35 pm AEDT. General Blu heads the win market, with Pray For Elegance next, followed by Dream For Free and Hellofacury. The race shapes as a scattered field—Hughie's Spirit and Cast A Line project to the lead, Dream For Free makes a first-start debut from a nice barrier, and Pray For Elegance sits midfield with every chance to improve off a trial win and added race exposure after a debut that lacked finishing room at Geelong.
General Blu is the shortest at a rating of 100 from the Hayes stable, which is outperforming market expectation by 36 per cent. The three-year-old returned from 39 weeks away to run second at Geelong by a nose, a tight margin that argues ability is present. Linda Meech's role in the saddle matters; the stable has shown form, though the trainer's record sits at 10 per cent. Dream For Free, the $70k purchase, comes from a strong Caulfield Heath trial and inherits a decent barrier. The Hayes yard is going well, and the form—coupled with the comment that the runner should take natural improvement from that trial—frames a bold appeal. Hellofacury holds a rating of 85 and returns for a second campaign off 37 weeks with Dean Yendall aboard; the jockey is running 28 per cent better than career average, a signal that recent form is ticking.
The market's lean towards General Blu may have missed the value. Pray For Elegance, rated 87, posted a trial win at Tatura and has jockey Jack Martin aboard, who is 33 per cent above market expectation in recent rides—a booking that carries weight. The two leaders and midfield runner offer contrasting angles: back Pray For Elegance as the value play, or lean on Dream For Free if the recent trial form holds up under race conditions.
Shortest win price
General Blu (2)
1.45
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Offpace
Firststart
Leader
Dream For Free · Positive
Trainer Form
In form stable, out performing market expectations 36%
General Blu · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Hellofacury · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 28% in Last 100 Rides
Hughie's Spirit · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 36%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Debutant
Positive
First race day appearance
AAP
Trials (1:0-0-0). $70k purchase. Out of a full sister to Listed winner Fighting Sun. Takes natural improvement from lone Caulfield Heath trial. Benefit of decent alley. Look to betting.
ILB
4yo by I Am Invincible first starter for trainer Will Ben & Jd Hayes. Watch the market moves.
RP
The only newcomer; related to 6f winner Brazen Bid; trainer has fine record with newcomers at this distance; there's hope from the pedigree that he has some ability; can make his presence felt with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
4yo debutant by I Am Invincible for Will Ben & Jd Hayes. Respect the betting.
Career
2: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 55%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 20%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Returns for second campaign (39-weeks). Ex Simon Zahra in Victoria. In the minors at Geelong on debut last campaign. Can figure.
ILB
First up and close to a win first up last preparation at Geelong. Linda Meech and Tony Mcevoy & Calvin Mcevoy rate highly together. Expected to be flashing home. Great chance.
RP
Only finished fifth of seven despite odds of 4-5 over 6f at Pakenham (maiden) in February; returns from a break today; first start for yard; deserves respect as has bits and pieces of decent form and it was interesting that he was well backed last time.
RSIS
Resuming and close to a win resuming last preparation at Geelong. Linda Meech has a good track record with the Tony Mcevoy & Calvin Mcevoy stable. Looks like a winning chance.
Career
3: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Terang
1: 0-0-0
Track Colac
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1406m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 28% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Dean Yendall 28% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 280%
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Kicks off second campaign (37-weeks). Ex L Smith in Victoria. Can hit the ground running for new stable after long spell.
ILB
Fresh from a spell of 37 weeks. Was $4.80 and came in 7th last run at Terang and will be dropping in distance. Contender at a nice price.
RP
Came home seventh, beaten 10l, at Terang in February upped to 7f; has had some time off; the trainer is going well; deserves respect as recent form is thin on the ground in this contest and he finished second two runs ago.
RSIS
First run back from a 37 week break. Was 4/1 and ran 7th last run at Terang and back in trip. Has a good chance.
Career
33: 0-3-4
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Terang
4: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
12: 0-0-1
Distance 1208m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1243m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1406m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
20: 0-2-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
11: 0-1-3
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 100% Profit on Turnover
Hot Jockey
Positive
Melissa Julius in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 40%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ran on without troubling winner in the 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Warrnambool. Better for the outing. Maps to get a sweet run.
ILB
Finished with intent when 3rd last time at Warrnambool and will appreciate a good gate. Will be positive in the run early. Could feature here.
RP
Comfortably beaten finishing third over 5f at Warrnambool (maiden) last Thursday; not at his best last time although had previously shown useful form but still winless and defeats stacking up (33 on the bounce).
RSIS
Came on strongly to finish 3rd last time at Warrnambool and gets a favourable stall. Won't be far away during the run. Watch betting.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1205m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
AAP
Kicks off second campaign (15-weeks). More a minor money chance here.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Amongst the placegetters when 3rd last start at Geelong.
RP
Wasn't disgraced when third of eight at Geelong yesterday; was entered at Geelong Saturday.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Tidy effort when 3rd last run at Geelong.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Manangatang
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1175m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 19% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Neil Farley 24% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 17% POT in L100 Runners
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious at Swan Hill at second appearance. Comes back in trip a touch.
ILB
Odds of $91.00 and weakened to finish 8th last start at Swan Hill. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Facing a difficult task.
RP
Finished eighth, beaten 6l, over 6f at Swan Hill (maiden) last month; others more likely.
RSIS
Odds of 90/1 and gave away some ground when 8th last time at Swan Hill. Has good tactical pace and will be nicely positioned.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 36%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Kept fresh following return. Didn't finish it off over 1200m 3yo Mdn Plate at Cranbourne. Drawn favourably. Sound claims.
ILB
Didn't threaten when 6th last time at Cranbourne but drawn nicely. Must be considered here.
RP
Fair effort when beaten 4½l, finishing sixth of nine at Cranbourne over 6f (maiden) on debut for new trainer last month; best he's managed so far is fourth from three career starts; passed over.
RSIS
Tailed off to finish 6th last time at Cranbourne but can find a nice position from the draw. Should be in the finish.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jack Martin 33% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -42% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 17% POT in L100 Runners
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Second campaign (22-weeks). Couldn't get into the finish on debut at Geelong but wasn't disgraced. Better for race exposure.
ILB
Fresh today. Odds of $2.60 and closed off nicely when 5th last run at Geelong and fitter for debut run.
RP
Favourite but out of the money on his debut (Geelong, 6f) showing signs of greenness at 13-8 in June; returns from a layoff; hard to see him getting off the mark second time up.
RSIS
First run back after a break. At 8/5 passed some rivals in the late stages when 5th last run at Geelong on a heavy track and fitter for debut run.
Career
6: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Casterton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 8% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 25%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Settled midfield and never a serious challenger at Horsham second-up. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Jumped at $61.00 and faded away to finish 9th last start at Horsham. Prefer others.
RP
Held when ninth beaten 10l at Horsham last month.
RSIS
Started at 60/1 and didn't attack the line when 9th last start at Horsham.
Career
4: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-0
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1012m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -50% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 25%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Lightly raced 5-year-old who has only managed a 3rd from 4 runs to date. Well back and never a factor at Ballarat first up. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
Started at $18.00 and underwhelming when 6th last start at Ballarat. Gets back and needs luck. Can't back with any confidence.
RP
Four-race maiden but has managed to finish third; not disgraced in sixth over 5f at Ballarat (maiden) two weeks ago; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Started 17/1 and average effort when 6th last run at Ballarat. Likely to settle back in the field.