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Gosford (NSW) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Gosford (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Thursday 22 October 2026

Race 1 — The Ary Toukley Midway Hcp (C1) - Heat Of The Rising Star 1600m · jumps 1:15 pm AEDT

Race notes

  • Class 1,MID CL1
  • GOOD4
  • Fine
  • 6 runners

Shortest win price

Ouragan (3)

2.90

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 1Overshadow
  • 2Autumn Sky

Onpace

  • 7Air Kiss

Leader

  • 3Ouragan
  • 5Derry City Felix
  • 6Legaselli

  • Overshadow · Negative

    Current SR

    Rider’s recent POT is returning 30% lower than Career Avg.

  • Autumn Sky · Positive

    Jockey ROI

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides

  • Ouragan · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Derry City Felix · Negative

    Trainer Form

    Stable out of form, losing 17% Profit on Turnover

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1OvershadowJ: Braith Nock·T: James Harding259kg7 1 2 5 57: 1-1-1Overshadow win4.20Overshadow place2.05

Career

7: 1-1-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Wyong

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Randwick Kensington

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Illawarra Grange

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1550m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    5: 1-1-0

  • Going Soft

    2: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 5Newcastle1000m12 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.9L
  2. 5Canterbury1550m16 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.52L
  3. 2Goulburn1400m23 Aug 2026 · CL1 · GOOD40.1L
  4. 1Illawarra Grange1450m30 July 2026 · MDN SW · GOOD4-1
  5. 7Hawkesbury1300m2 July 2026 · Maiden · SOFT75.5L
  6. 2Rosehill900m5 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)7.1L
  7. 7Wyong1350m10 Feb 2026 · Maiden · GOOD44.6L
  8. 3Randwick Kensington1400m21 Jan 2026 · MDN · SOFT71.5L

Insights

  • Current SR

    Negative

    Rider’s recent POT is returning 30% lower than Career Avg.

  • Tricky Map

    Negative

    Runners with this map, underperform market by 10%

  • Slow Early LS

    Negative

    Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg

  • Nice Barrier

    Positive

    Well drawn from gate 2

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Now 5 weeks between runs. Ex M, W & J Hawkes in NSW. Just missed at Goulburn 23 Aug. Suited back to provincial level and well drawn.

ILB

Started at $20.00 and overtook some late when 5th last run at Canterbury and taking on easier opposition. First start for a new trainer and has a positive draw. Good winning chance.

RP

Respectable effort to finish fifth, beaten 2½l at Canterbury last month; normally pretty consistent; now running for a new stable; knows how to win so likely to be a threat.

RSIS

At 19/1 made some ground when 5th last start at Canterbury and competing in a less challenging grade. Interesting to see the tongue strap go on for the first time. Should give plenty of sight.

2Autumn SkyJ: Siena Grima·T: Richard Litt658.5kg5 1 6 8 42: 1-0-0Autumn Sky win5.00Autumn Sky place2.35

Career

2: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Illawarra Grange

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1250m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    2: 1-0-0

Last starts

  1. 4Illawarra Grange1300m1 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD45.1L
  2. 8Warwick Farm795m3 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4L
  3. 6Warwick Farm819m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)3.4L
  4. 1Newcastle1250m31 Mar 2026 · MDN HCP · GOOD4-0.5
  5. 5Warwick Farm789m20 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)2L
  6. 4Warwick Farm796m13 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial3L
  7. 2Warwick Farm812m31 Oct 2025 · Barrier Trial1.5L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides

  • Jockey Booking

    Positive

    Siena Grima 22% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Key Jockey

    Positive

    Siena Grima winning at 15% POT in last 100 rides

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Won Newcastle debut March 31. Unable to make an impression at Illawarra Grange at resumption. Added trip should help.

ILB

Started $7.00 and came in 4th last start at Illawarra Grange. Happy to overlook that run. Will be fighting out the finish.

RP

Lightly raced (this just her third race); beaten 5l at Illawarra Grange over 6½f (handicap) three weeks ago; big chance if excused most recent run as achieved handicap success two runs back.

RSIS

Started at 6/1 and came in 4th last run at Illawarra Grange. Capable of a strong comeback. Expect support.

3OuraganJ: Mollie Fitzgerald·T: P & M Cave757kg3 6 3 2 214: 1-3-5Ouragan win2.90Ouragan place1.55

Career

14: 1-3-5

Rating · IRD

94

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Kembla Grange

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Rosehill

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    4: 0-1-2

  • Distance 1250m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1450m

    2: 0-0-2

  • Distance 1500m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    10: 1-2-5

  • Going Soft

    4: 0-1-0

Last starts

  1. 2Hawkesbury1600m8 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.96L
  2. 2Hawkesbury1500m24 Sept 2026 · Class 1 · GOOD40.52L
  3. 3Illawarra Grange1450m17 Sept 2026 · CL1 · GOOD42.5L
  4. 6Wyong1350m30 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 64 · GOOD47.3L
  5. 3Newcastle1400m13 Aug 2026 · CL1 · GOOD41L
  6. 3Illawarra Grange1450m30 July 2026 · 3UP CLASS 1 HCP · GOOD42.8L
  7. 3Kembla Grange1300m25 July 2026 · CL1 HCP · GOOD40.3L
  8. 5Newcastle1250m14 July 2026 · Class 1 · SOFT53.5L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer ROI

    Negative

    Trainers runners currently losing 17% Profit on Turnover

  • Slow Early LS

    Negative

    Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg

  • Consistent

    Positive

    Showing up at the business end

Comments

AAP

Just missed at Hawkesbury 24 Sep. Found enough to place in small field at Hawkesbury over this journey. Hard fit, warrants attention.

ILB

Tidy effort when 2nd last time at Hawkesbury. Should jump out and bowl along. Has run into the money frequently this campaign. Capable type.

RP

Good effort when close up at Hawkesbury two weeks ago; string of near-misses of late but achieved just the one win; easy enough to take on as not in the habit of winning recently.

RSIS

Ran well when 2nd last start at Hawkesbury. Likely to be well placed early. In good order since returning from a break. Good chance at a nice price.

4RenoirScratched4––––

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey50%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating20%
  • Closing Speed80%

Insights

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 58%

  • Hot Trainer

    Positive

    Kylie Gavenlock in good form, out performing market 58%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 44% POT in L100 Runners

  • Early Sectionals

    Negative

    Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace

  • Better for last start

    Positive

    Improved with last few runs

Comments

AAP

Sent back to last and safely held in the small field at Newcastle. Longer may help but needs to improve.

ILB

Ran past a few when 4th last start at Newcastle. Prefers to settle towards the tail.

RSIS

Made up ground when 4th last run at Newcastle. Likely to get back.

5Derry City FelixJ: Molly Bourke·T: P & M Cave356.5kg9 5 4 3 811: 1-2-1Derry City Felix win8.50Derry City Felix place3.50

Career

11: 1-2-1

Rating · IRD

88

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Hawkesbury

    4: 0-1-1

  • Track Kembla Grange

    4: 0-1-0

  • Track Wyong

    2: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    2: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1500m

    4: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1600m

    3: 1-0-1

  • Going Good

    7: 0-1-1

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    3: 1-1-0

Last starts

  1. 8Kembla Grange2000m26 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD48.3L
  2. 3Hawkesbury1600m10 Sept 2026 · CL1 · GOOD41.3L
  3. 4Wyong1625m30 Aug 2026 · CL1 · GOOD42.9L
  4. 5Hawkesbury1500m11 Aug 2026 · CL1 · SOFT54.9L
  5. 9Kembla Grange1300m25 July 2026 · CL1 HCP · GOOD45.3L
  6. 3Rosehill1030m10 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)3.9L
  7. 6Gosford1600m9 Apr 2026 · CL1 · GOOD44.1L
  8. 1Wyong1600m28 Mar 2026 · MID MDN-SW · SOFT5-0.9

Insights

  • Trainer Form

    Negative

    Stable out of form, losing 17% Profit on Turnover

  • Tricky Map

    Negative

    Runners with this map, underperform market by 10%

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Back in Dist

    Negative

    Dropping back to a less suitable distance range

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Placed Hcp (C1) at Hawkesbury 10 Sep. Off pace, only battled home at Kembla Grange. Lone victory was over this trip. Can run top three.

ILB

Started at $12.00 and didn't find the line when 8th last run at Kembla Grange. Should improve here but coming back in distance. Likely to be well placed early. Represents value at a price.

RP

Beaten 8l in eighth in a conditions race upped to 1m2f at Kembla Grange last month; others appeal more.

RSIS

Started 11/1 and weakened under pressure when 8th last run at Kembla Grange. May see an upturn in form but back in trip. Should come to hand quickly. Definite winning chance.

6LegaselliJ: William A Stanley·T: John Thompson156kg3 5 2 1 107: 1-1-0Legaselli win3.40Legaselli place1.80

Career

7: 1-1-0

Rating · IRD

83

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Hawkesbury

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Kembla Grange

    3: 1-1-0

  • Track Rosehill

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    2: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    5: 1-1-0

  • Going Soft

    2: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 10Kembla Grange2000m26 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD424.6L
  2. 1Kembla Grange1600m12 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD4-1
  3. 2Kembla Grange1400m29 Aug 2026 · 3yo · GOOD40.2L
  4. 5Hawkesbury1100m11 Aug 2026 · MDN · SOFT54.4L
  5. 3Rosehill900m10 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)1.2L
  6. 12Rosehill1400m28 Mar 2026 · 2yo · SOFT610.3L
  7. 8Randwick1200m7 Mar 2026 · 2yo · GOOD48.5L
  8. 5Randwick1100m14 Feb 2026 · 2yo · GOOD42.9L

Insights

  • Tricky Map

    Negative

    Runners with this map, underperform market by 10%

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Draw Suits

    Positive

    Well drawn inside

  • Dist Drop

    Negative

    Distance decrease from last start

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Broke maiden at Kembla Grange 12 Sep. Failed to threaten (outside alley) at Kembla Grange over longer test. Tactical speed, inside draw. Will be looking to bounce back here.

ILB

Jumped at $4.20 and couldn't stay in touch when 10th last start at Kembla Grange but gets the perfect draw. Interesting gear change of tongue tie on first time. Could feature here.

RP

Disappointing result when tailed off at 100-30 at Kembla Grange upped to 1m2f four weeks ago in a conditions race; has kicked on in her last couple of races; should give it a bold bid given she won a maiden two runs back.

RSIS

At 10/3 weakened to finish 10th last start at Kembla Grange but will appreciate a good stall. Interesting gear change of tongue strap on first time.

7Air KissJ: Olivia Chambers·T: Ms K Gavenlock555kg3 2 6 7 314: 1-0-3Air Kiss win11.00Air Kiss place3.80

Career

14: 1-0-3

Rating · IRD

71

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    3: 0-0-2

  • Fourth-up

    2: 1-0-1

  • Track Hawkesbury

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    6: 1-0-1

  • Track Wyong

    3: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1350m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    2: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1500m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    5: 0-0-2

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-0-1

  • Going Soft

    7: 1-0-0

Last starts

  1. 3Newcastle1500m3 Oct 2026 · 3UP CL1 HCP · GOOD43.27L
  2. 7Hawkesbury1400m10 Sept 2026 · BM64 · GOOD46.6L
  3. 6Gosford1200m28 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 64 · SOFT57.4L
  4. 2Gosford1000m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)0.6L
  5. 3Gosford1600m11 Feb 2026 · CL1 · GOOD41.8L
  6. 6Newcastle1350m15 Jan 2026 · Benchmark 64 · SOFT53.6L
  7. 6Wyong1350m20 Dec 2025 · CL1 · GOOD47.9L
  8. 7Gosford1200m4 Dec 2025 · CL1 · GOOD48L

Insights

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 42%

  • Trainer Form

    Positive

    In form stable, out performing market expectations 58%

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 44% POT in L100 Runners

  • Early Splits

    Negative

    Out of races with slow early tempos

  • Form At Track

    Negative

    Yet to win here

  • Improved L/S

    Positive

    Improved again last start

Comments

AAP

Kept grinding away for the minors at Newcastle. This looks a deeper race.

ILB

Good effort to place 3rd last start at Newcastle. Should race on the speed. Take on trust.

RP

Just the one victory on her CV; not disgraced in third over 7½f at Newcastle (handicap) three weeks ago; may have to settle for supporting role.

RSIS

Good effort to place 3rd last start at Newcastle. Has early pace and positions nicely.

Odds correct as at 1:20 am AEDT. Odds can change.