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Hawkesbury (NSW) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Hawkesbury (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 7 NovHawkesbury (NSW)Change

Race 1 — Richmond Club Mdn Plate 1400m · jumps

Race preview

Richmond Club Mdn Plate: where the value sits. We are at Hawkesbury for a 1400m maiden on a good 4 surface with fine weather overhead. The win market lines up with Sur Nova Centauri heading the betting order ahead of All Over Harry, Arruza, Bavaria, Stellar Cipher, Calippo, Pieripper, and Husslaa. The bold play is to look past the shortest runners and find where the market might have it wrong on resume or trial form.

Sur Nova Centauri opens as the market leader for G Waterhouse and A Bott, returning for a second Australian campaign over 24 weeks after formerly being with Richard Litt. Drawn well in barrier 1 with L P Beuzelin steering, this import is capable of figuring fresh while building fitness through two trials. On the other line, All Over Harry for A and S Freedman jumps from barrier 6 with Keagan Latham taking the mount, looking to bounce back after just missing at Newcastle on 3 October before being unable to make an impression second-up at Warwick Farm. Arruza represents the C J Waller yard from barrier 2 with Rory Hutchings, having had a low-key debut at Rosehill over 1400m on soft ground where it should benefit from the experience.

Further down the order, Bavaria for C Maher lines up for its first start from barrier 4 with Adam Farragher after a $400k purchase tag and a trial campaign showing four appearances for two minor placings. The speed map points to Arruza pushing forward as the leader, with Sur Nova Centauri and All Over Harry settling off the pace, leaving runners like Calippo to work into the race from an offmidfield lane. The value sits with looking closely at how these returning profiles and first starters handle the 1400m trip at Hawkesbury.

Race notes

  • CG&E MDN-SW,Maiden
  • GOOD4
  • Fine
  • 8 runners

Shortest win price

Sur Nova Centauri (3)

1.60

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 7Husslaa

Offmidfield

  • 1Calippo

Midfield

  • 9Stellar Cipher

Offpace

  • 3Sur Nova Centauri
  • 4All Over Harry
  • 8Pieripper

Firststart

  • 6Bavaria

Leader

  • 5Arruza

  • Calippo · Positive

    Fast Finisher

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Sur Nova Centauri · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races

  • All Over Harry · Positive

    Rider SR

    Jockey recent POT is 14% better than Career Avg.

  • Arruza · Positive

    Jockey ROI

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 12% in Last 100 Rides

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1CalippoJ: Leeshelle Small·T: Marc Chevalier359kg8 3 6 11: 0-0-0$16.00$2.80

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating20%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1250m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 1Hawkesbury1000m20 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.2
  2. 6Newcastle1250m18 Oct 2025 · 3UP CG&E MDN HCP · SOFT55.9L
  3. 3Hawkesbury800m15 Sept 2025 · Barrier Trial2.5L
  4. 8Rosehill900m9 May 2025 · Barrier Trial12.2L

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Hot Trainer

    Positive

    Marc Chevalier in good form, out performing market 30%

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 15% POT in L100 Runners

  • Long Break

    Negative

    Resumes from a 385 day break (> 300 days)

Comments

AAP

Resuming (55-weeks). A very soft debut performance at Newcastle at huge odds 18 Oct 2025. Furnished with time and will take benefit from recent trials. Betting?

ILB

Racing fresh today after a 55 week spell. Started $101.00 and disappointing effort when 6th last time at Newcastle but was on debut last time. Overlook from a betting angle.

RP

Could not finish better than sixth on his debut over 6f at Newcastle at 100-1 385 days ago; not seen for some time now; that experience should set him in good stead so warrants consideration.

RSIS

Back after a 55 week break. Was 100/1 and subpar when 6th last run at Newcastle but having second race start. Won a trial here on Oct 20th.

2EdoradoScratched6––––

Career

10: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

72

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Hawkesbury

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Kembla Grange

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Warwick Farm

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1850m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2000m

    3: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    5: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    4: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 6Kembla Grange800m7 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3L
  2. 4Canberra2000m17 Apr 2026 · CL1-SW · SOFT58.2L
  3. 4Gosford2100m9 Apr 2026 · 3UP CL1-SW · GOOD45.6L
  4. 6Newcastle1850m31 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD411.6L
  5. 6Albury2000m19 Mar 2026 · 3UP CL1-SW · SOFT73.8L
  6. 9Hawkesbury2000m7 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT58.3L
  7. 7Newcastle1600m14 Feb 2026 · Maiden · GOOD46L
  8. 5Sapphire Coast1400m1 Feb 2026 · Maiden · SOFT62.9L

Insights

  • Up In Dist

    Positive

    Racing at a more suitable distance

  • Not Trustworthy

    Negative

    May be competing at this level for some time

Comments

AAP

First-up (29-weeks). Has generally struggled to make an impression. Not pushed out Kembla Grange trial 7 Oct. Leaning towards others here.

ILB

First run back from a 29 week spell. Jumped at $16.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 4th last start at Canberra and coming back in distance.

RP

Held when fourth of six at Canberra over 1m2f (conditions race) in April; yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at ten; returns from an absence here; passed over.

RSIS

Fresh after break of 29 weeks. Started at 15/1 and gave away some ground when 4th last run at Canberra and will be facing a significant drop in distance.

3Sur Nova CentauriJ: L P Beuzelin·T: G Waterhouse & A Bott159kg2 2 7 3 44: 0-1-2$1.60$1.03

Career

4: 0-1-2

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Newcastle

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Newbury

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Southwell

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1408m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1420m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1500m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    3: 0-1-2

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 4Randwick1200m23 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.1L
  2. 3Randwick1050m6 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)1.6L
  3. 7Newcastle1500m19 May 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT75.4L
  4. 2Warwick Farm1207m23 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3L
  5. 2Southwell1420m7 Oct 2025 · GBB Race · GOOD1.75L
  6. 3Yarmouth1612m16 Sept 2025 · GBB/GBBPlus Race · GOOD3.8L
  7. 3Newbury1408m16 Aug 2025 · GBB Race · GOOD1.5L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races

  • Key Jockey

    Positive

    L P Beuzelin winning at 5% POT in last 100 rides

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Draw Suits

    Positive

    Well drawn inside

  • Lightly Raced

    Positive

    Limited race experience but shown potential

  • Resuming

    Negative

    Poor strike rate when first up

Comments

AAP

Import returning for second Australian campaign (24-weeks). Ex Richard Litt in NSW. Drawn well for return. Capable of figuring fresh while building fitness through 2 trials. Big watch under new trainer.

ILB

Fresh after a break. Odds of $8.00 and weakened under pressure when 7th last run at Newcastle. Overlooking the last run and gets a favourable draw. Recently gelded. Likeable type and a major player.

RP

Came home seventh over 7½f on his debut at Newcastle at 7-1 in May; winless in three starts overseas; returns from a layoff; representing new stable today; others more appealing.

RSIS

Back from break. At 7/1 folded up in the straight when 7th last run at Newcastle. Expected to rebound and promising career start. He underwent a recent gelding procedure. Terrific hope.

4All Over HarryJ: Keagan Latham·T: A & S Freedman657.5kg7 7 2 2 73: 0-1-0$7.00$1.70

Career

3: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

93

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Warwick Farm

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Randwick

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    2: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    2: 0-1-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 7Warwick Farm1300m21 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD417.41L
  2. 2Newcastle1300m3 Oct 2026 · 3UP SUPER MDN-SW · GOOD40.51L
  3. 2Randwick1050m25 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)0.7L
  4. 7Randwick740m11 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.7L
  5. 7Randwick1200m23 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · HEAVY1011.8L
  6. 5Randwick1045m15 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)3.8L
  7. 2Randwick1045m21 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.1L
  8. 1Canterbury900m10 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-0.8

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 14% better than Career Avg.

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -63% POT in their L100 Races

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Just missed at Newcastle 3 Oct. Unable to make an impression at Warwick Farm second-up. Stripping fitter, could give some cheek.

ILB

Jumped at $3.40 and didn't attack the line when 7th last time at Warwick Farm. Has the talent to rebound quickly. Has every chance.

RP

Last of seven over 6½f at Warwick Farm (maiden) two weeks ago; without a win in three attempts although has finished second.

RSIS

Started at 12/5 and couldn't maintain the pace when 7th last run at Warwick Farm. Has the talent to rebound quickly. No surprise to see solid support in the betting.

5ArruzaJ: Rory Hutchings·T: C J Waller257.5kg9 6 1 81: 0-0-0$8.00$1.90

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

82

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Rosehill

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 8Rosehill1400m14 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT66.52L
  2. 1Rosehill1030m2 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.3
  3. 6Rosehill1030m19 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)4.5L
  4. 9Warwick Farm788m9 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)6.1L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 12% in Last 100 Rides

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 9% POT in L100 Runners

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Draw Suits

    Positive

    Well drawn inside

  • Raceday Experience

    Positive

    Wiser for debut run

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

From top stable however had a low-key debut at Rosehill 14 Oct. Benefits from the experience. Likely to improve from there. In the mix.

ILB

Started $10.00 and didn't find the line when 8th last run at Rosehill but was a debutant last start. Has plenty of early speed. Drawn nicely. Slight prospect.

RP

Couldn't land a blow on his debut at Rosehill at 9-1 three weeks ago; he ought to improve for experience and has to be taken seriously.

RSIS

Was 9/1 and looked outclassed when 8th last time at Rosehill but fitter for debut run. Should be going forward early. Has a good draw.

6BavariaJ: Adam Farragher·T: C Maher457.5kg3 3 4$6.50$1.60

Rating · IRD

75

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed50%

Last starts

  1. 4Newcastle800m12 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.1L
  2. 3Kembla Grange800m5 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1.7L
  3. 3Illawarra Grange800m6 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)8.5L

Insights

  • Still Learning

    Negative

    No race experience

Comments

AAP

Trials (4:0-0-2). $400k purchase. Trial form okay for leading stable. Benefit of decent alley. Watch markets.

ILB

First race appearance 3yo by Snitzel for trainer Ciaron Maher. Yet to place in multiple trials. Watch the market moves.

RP

Related to 5f winner Czar; conceding experience to all his rivals; sire can produce useful types; yard gets plenty of debutant winners; every chance with signs of encouragement in profile.

RSIS

3yo runner on debut by Snitzel for trainer Ciaron Maher. Yet to place in all trials.

7HusslaaJ: Beany Panya·T: G M Brown857.5kg6 6 9 4 64: 0-0-0$51.00$4.60

Career

4: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

75

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Kembla Grange

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Wyong

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Gosford

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    2: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 6Kembla Grange1400m24 Oct 2026 · 3UP SUPER MDN HCP · GOOD44.1L
  2. 4Kembla Grange1200m10 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.1L
  3. 9Wyong1200m28 Mar 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · SOFT510.9L
  4. 6Gosford1100m14 Mar 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · SOFT54.4L
  5. 6Warwick Farm792m16 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial4.6L

Insights

  • Current SR

    Negative

    Rider’s recent POT is returning 42% lower than Career Avg.

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    Graham M Brown striking at just 2%

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Less suitable jockey engaged

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 38%

  • Rider Poor SR

    Negative

    Jockey underperforming market expectations by 55% in L100 rides

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

Comments

AAP

Started $16 when safely held in Maiden company at Kembla Grange when second-up. Sharper now, can make his presence felt if he gets the breaks.

ILB

Was $16.00 and faded to finish 6th last run at Kembla Grange. Might be ridden for luck. Not likely to pull off the victory.

RP

Yet to finish better than fourth in his four races; out of the frame (beaten 4l in sixth) in a handicap at Kembla Grange last month; others more appealing.

RSIS

At 15/1 lost ground in the run home when 6th last run at Kembla Grange. Will be giving the leaders a big start.

8PieripperJ: Jean Van Overmeire·T: G D Hickman757.5kg9 3 7 5 54: 0-0-0$41.00$4.00

Career

4: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

75

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Warwick Farm

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Orange

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Nowra

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 900m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    3: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 5Orange1300m19 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD42.42L
  2. 5Nowra1200m20 Sept 2026 · CGE MDN-SW · GOOD45L
  3. 7Warwick Farm792m3 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)6L
  4. 3Warwick Farm817m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)2.2L
  5. 9Warwick Farm1000m6 May 2026 · 2Y C&G MDN-SW · GOOD47.8L
  6. 5Newcastle900m23 Apr 2026 · 2Y MDN SW · SOFT53.8L
  7. 5Canterbury900m10 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)4.2L
  8. 6Warwick Farm799m13 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial8.5L

Insights

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Taken back and safely held in shallow field at Orange when second-up. All the better and could show more going to 1400m here.

ILB

Was $6.50 and average effort when 5th last time at Orange. Very hard to have.

RP

Last of five over 6½f at Orange (maiden) last month.

RSIS

Started 11/2 and tailed off when 5th last start at Orange.

9Stellar CipherJ: Lee Magorrian·T: C J Waller557.5kg5 4 7 7 67: 0-1-0$14.00$2.65

Career

7: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

83

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Pakenham

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Rosehill

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1600m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    2: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1125m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    4: 0-1-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    2: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 6Hawkesbury1600m15 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT75.81L
  2. 7Rosehill1400m30 Sept 2026 · 3yo · GOOD42.63L
  3. 7Canterbury1250m16 Sept 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD44.95L
  4. 4Rosehill1030m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2L
  5. 5Flemington1200m4 July 2026 · 2Y FINAL · SOFT73L
  6. 4Geelong1125m19 June 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · HEAVY93.6L
  7. 6Flemington1100m14 Feb 2026 · 2yo · GOOD45.6L
  8. 2Pakenham1100m29 Jan 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · GOOD41L

Insights

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 9% POT in L100 Runners

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Started $14 when safely held in Maiden company in rain affected going this course. Drops to shorter trip. Worth a look.

ILB

Was $14.00 and subpar when 6th last time around here. Betting is the best guide.

RP

Attempting to open his account at the eighth time of asking; no impression when sixth of eight in a handicap last month; others more likely.

RSIS

Was 13/1 and disappointing outing when 6th last run at the track. Not at all out of this race.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.

Past meetings

  • Tue 27 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
  • Thu 15 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
  • Thu 8 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
  • Thu 24 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
  • Thu 10 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
  • Sat 5 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races