Kempsey (NSW) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 3:35 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Kempsey (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 6 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 6 NovKempsey (NSW)Change

Race 1 — Kempsey Macleay RSL Club Country Boosted Mdn Plate 1000m · jumps Fri 6 Nov, 1:15 pm AEDT

Race preview

Kempsey's opening sprint is a country maiden plate over 1000 metres on a HEAVY10 track at 1:15 pm AEDT. Justice And Grace heads the win market, followed by Sweet Marlene, Truly Graphic, and Star Of Vega. This is a first-starter's advantage play against a modest maiden field, but the heavy going and short distance will sort genuine speed from the pretenders. The front-running faction here is led by Star Of Vega, with offpace types Billybago and Sweet Marlene set to come from deeper positions. Truly Graphic shapes as a midfield runner with early speed—an edge on this circuit, the data suggests.

Sweet Marlene's case for favourite honours sits on a strong recent record and improved recent form. Luke Rolls is riding 30 per cent above his career average, and her last-start second at Taree over 1000 metres on SOFT6 was a nose job—she picked up genuinely from the back half there. At 22 starts with seven wins to her name already, this maiden has run well without winning, and the comment flags she could spring a surprise. Truly Graphic, rated 75, returns for a second campaign after 14 weeks away and tested herself against town company at Rosehill in her first prep. The Rosehill form against 2yo hcp company looks substantial for a country maiden, and A P Ball's stable early speed advantage here deserves respect. Grant Buckley is aboard.

Justice And Grace, shortest in the market as a first-starter, brings serious pedigree—an $80k purchase out of an unraced three-quarter-sister to G3 winner Anders. The trial at Newcastle over 800 metres yielded a solid performance, and Ben Looker's recent form reads 31 per cent above market expectation. However, first-starters in heavy going over 1000 metres are often found wanting, and Sweet Marlene's consistency and proven acceleration in similar conditions make her the value play here. She sits outside a short price but carries genuine winning claims the market may have underestimated.

Race notes

CTRY MDN-SW,Maiden
HEAVY10
Fine
6 runners

Shortest win price

Justice And Grace (7)

1.70

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Firststart

7Justice And Grace

Backmarker

5Royal Ribbons

Midfield

4Truly Graphic

Offpace

1Billybago
6Sweet Marlene

Leader

3Star Of Vega

Billybago · Negative
Jockey Booking
Zac Wadick current POT is 27% below Career Avg.
Star Of Vega · Negative
Trainer SR
Neil Godbolt striking at just 9%
Truly Graphic · Negative
Trainer A2E
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Royal Ribbons · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 41% better than Career Avg.

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1BillybagoJ: Zac Wadick·T: Colt Prosser259kg6 3 9 2 1017: 0-3-2$21.00$4.60

Career

17: 0-3-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-2
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Tuncurry
2: 0-1-1
Track Port Macquarie
5: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1205m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-2-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-1

Last starts

10Port Macquarie1000m25 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN HCP · SOFT68.78L
2Wauchope1000m17 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY90.82L
9Armidale1100m20 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN · GOOD312.79L
3Kempsey1000m5 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD43.6L
6Armidale1100m16 Apr 2026 · CGE MDN-SW · GOOD46.3L
2Tuncurry1205m4 Apr 2026 · MDN · HEAVY101L
8Port Macquarie1008m28 Mar 2026 · MDN · SOFT57.3L
6Coffs Harbour1212m9 Mar 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · HEAVY910L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Zac Wadick current POT is 27% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 102%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 33% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 37% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Raced in back half and never likely at Port Macquarie over this journey. Heavy track form okay but lift needed.

ILB

Was $51.00 and average performance when 10th last time at Port Macquarie but can find a nice position from the draw. Will have to carry extra weight. Looking elsewhere.

Not far behind Star Of Vega when tenth in a handicap at Port Macquarie last month; still winless and defeats stacking up (17 on the bounce) and form is hit and miss; passed over.

RSIS

Was 50/1 and lacklustre showing when 10th last run at Port Macquarie but gets a favourable draw. Has to carry more weight this time.

2Cerano MagicScratched3––––

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Performance just fair in rain affected going at Taree off long break at $3.20. Building fitness. This looks very winnable.

ILB

On a short turnaround. Honest race when 3rd last start at Coffs Harbour.

RSIS

Backing up quickly for this race. Ran well when 3rd last start at Coffs Harbour.

3Star Of VegaJ: Daniel Smith·T: R N Godbolt559kg7 7 4 9 84: 0-0-0$11.00$3.50

Career

4: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1004m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Port Macquarie1000m25 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN HCP · SOFT67.32L
9Port Macquarie1000m9 Oct 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD48.46L
4Port Macquarie1004m27 Sept 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD43.2L
7Port Macquarie1000m22 Feb 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD410.5L
7Taree1007m13 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial11.1L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Neil Godbolt striking at just 9%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Every chance but compounded in soft going at Port Macquarie over this journey. Could pop up at fair odds.

ILB

At $11.00 didn't threaten when 8th last run at Port Macquarie. Should be going forward early. Blinkers go on for the first time. In the mix against these.

Eighth of 14 beaten 7l 12 days ago at Port Macquarie in a handicap; has posted some fair efforts in defeat and shouldn't be far away.

RSIS

Odds of 10/1 and gave away some ground when 8th last time at Port Macquarie. Blinkers go on for the first time. Should muster plenty of early toe.

4Truly GraphicJ: Grant Buckley·T: A P Ball657.5kg7 4 8 9 34: 0-0-1$4.60$1.95

Career

4: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Rosehill
2: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1206m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1110m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Port Macquarie1206m31 July 2026 · Maiden · SOFT63.2L
9Rosehill1200m18 July 2026 · 2Y HCP · HEAVY96.2L
8Rosehill1100m4 July 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT68.2L
4Port Macquarie1110m14 June 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT73.9L
7Newcastle800m3 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)2.4L

Insights

Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Fronting up for second campaign (14-weeks). Tested in town first prep. Perfectly placed to make a winning return.

ILB

Back after a spell. Displayed good finishing speed when 3rd last time at Port Macquarie. Place hope.

Career moving upwards; fair third of ten over 6f at Port Macquarie (maiden) in July; he can make a bold bid.

RSIS

Resuming. Managed to run 3rd beaten by 3 1/4L last run at Port Macquarie.

5Royal RibbonsJ: Jenny Duggan·T: P J Kelly357kg5 4 122: 0-0-0$31.00$5.50

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Taree
1: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1006m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

12Port Macquarie1006m31 July 2026 · CTRY MDN · SOFT621.3L
4Taree1000m30 June 2026 · MDN · HEAVY97.4L
5Taree1007m21 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)5.3L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 41% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jenny Duggan 48% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 175%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Paul Kelly in good form, out performing market 63%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 40% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jenny Duggan in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 48%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 22%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (14-weeks). Had a quiet trial at Port Macquarie. Others with stronger claims.

ILB

Fresh after a spell. Below standard effort when 12th last run at Port Macquarie. Interesting to see the blinkers go off for the first time. Could go close.

Beaten a long way at Port Macquarie three months ago in a handicap; makes limited appeal.

RSIS

Resumes after a break. Was ordinary when 12th last run at Port Macquarie. Interesting to see the blinkers go off for the first time. Can lift.

6Sweet MarleneJ: Luke Rolls·T: Cassandra Schmidt457kg3 5 6 6 222: 0-7-3$4.20$1.80

Career

22: 0-7-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
7: 0-4-1
Second-up
4: 0-2-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-1
Track Balaklava
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
2: 0-1-0
Track Port Macquarie
5: 0-1-0
Distance 800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
9: 0-4-1
Distance 1006m
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
9: 0-4-0
Going Good
6: 0-3-1
Going Heavy
7: 0-0-2

Last starts

2Taree1000m16 Oct 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · SOFT60.68L
6Taree1000m23 June 2026 · MDN · HEAVY85.6L
6Taree1000m5 June 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · HEAVY84.4L
5Port Macquarie1206m18 May 2026 · CTRY MDN · HEAVY105.4L
3Taree1007m5 May 2026 · CTRY MDN · HEAVY85.8L
7Coffs Harbour800m24 Apr 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY84.6L
2Taree1000m9 Apr 2026 · MDN · SOFT62.1L
2Port Macquarie1006m16 Mar 2026 · CTRY MDN · GOOD41.4L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 30% better than Career Avg.
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Picked up strongly from back half at Taree. Better for the outing. Could spring a surprise.

ILB

Made some ground late when 2nd last time at Taree. Strong winning hope.

Beaten half a length at Taree last month; yet to open her account after 22 starts and hit and miss profile recently; makes limited appeal as looks more likely to place than win.

RSIS

Good run when finishing 2nd last start at Taree. Expect support.

7Justice And GraceJ: Ben Looker·T: Paul Snowden155kg1$1.70$1.18

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

1Newcastle800m12 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-0.3

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Ben Looker 31% above market expected in L100 Rides
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:1-0-0). $80k purchase. Out of an unraced three-quarter-sister to G3 winner Anders. Signalled ability with a solid trial performance at Beaumont. Market watch advised.

ILB

Maurice 2yo having first start for trainer Paul Snowden and has minimal work to do from the draw. Jockey Ben Looker rates highly aboard. Watch early betting.

Related to Falcon Lair, winning form over 1m-1m2f; having his first start in public; a big player with signs of encouragement in profile.

RSIS

Initial race appearance 2yo by Maurice for trainer Paul Snowden and drawn the rails. Ben Looker rates highly. Winner in a trial at Beaumont Newcastle on Oct 12th.

Odds correct as at Fri 6 Nov, 1:20 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sat 5 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 6 races