Shortest win price
Oh Pretty Emma (6)
2.35
Gatton hosts an interesting eight-race card under fine conditions on a good four track for this restricted fifty-eight handicap over fourteen hundred metres, jumping at 6:20 pm AEDT. The win market order has Oh Pretty Emma sitting at the top of calculations, followed closely by Far Cry, Shedrivesabentley, and Peach Galantes in the early betting. This fillies and mares event brings together a mixed bunch of runners where finding value is the key angle, and the market might just be leaving the door open for an upset if the race maps correctly.
Taking a look at the form behind those shorter prices, Oh Pretty Emma comes into this off a third at this venue over eleven hundred metres where she settled in the back half and ran on strongly late after a lengthy absence, and she maps nicely here where runners in that position can outperform market expectations. Far Cry is another prominent runner in the market order who likes to go forward, having previously set the pace and been caught late over this exact fourteen hundred metre course. On the other side of the coin, Shedrivesabentley drops back in trip following an unthreatening run in a small field over eighteen hundred metres at Gold Coast, though her stable currently struggles with runners underperforming market expectations.
Digging into further angles from the pack, Peach Galantes brings early speed from barrier five under a hot jockey in Emily Lang, which is always an advantage on this circuit, despite finishing well held here last time out over eleven hundred metres. Key Component drops back to a suitable class from a nice draw in barrier two, while Oakfield Montana shares the leader speed group alongside Far Cry and Peach Galantes but deals with a negative rider change. The bold play is to lean against the very shortest runners and look towards those who can utilise the speed map to steal a break on the fine afternoon in Queensland.
Shortest win price
Oh Pretty Emma (6)
2.35
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Shedrivesabentley · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 3%
Far Cry · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Oh Pretty Emma · Positive
Profitable Trainer
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Flying Phoenix · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Hot Jockey
Positive
Gary Geran in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 17%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Midfield, great effort running into second F&M Hcp (58) at Ipswich.
ILB
Nice effort to run into 2nd beaten by 1/2L last start at Ipswich.
RSIS
Picked up late ground when 2nd beaten by 1/2L last time at Ipswich.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -69% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 9%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 31 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Freshened. Great run at Warwick 10 Sep. Ordinary performance in small field at Kilcoy. Claiming apprentice engaged again.
ILB
Jumped at $4.00 and weakened to finish 5th last time at Kilcoy.
RSIS
Was 3/1 and well beaten when 5th last run at Kilcoy.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Jockey Booking
Negative
Montanna Savva current POT is 41% below Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 52%
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (19-weeks). Two quiet trials for return.
ILB
First up from a spell. Was well beaten when 10th last time at Toowoomba but competing at a lower level of competition. Will have to carry extra weight.
RSIS
First run back from a break. Didn't attack the line when 10th last time at Toowoomba but matched against less formidable competition. Will have to carry more weight.
Career
26: 2-2-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-2-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-1
Track Beaudesert
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1680m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
4: 1-0-0
Going Good
19: 1-1-3
Going Soft
7: 1-1-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 3%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 53%
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 27 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Unable to threaten in the small field at Gold Coast. Drops to shorter trip.
ILB
Started at $3.60 and chased well when 5th last time at Gold Coast but dropping in distance. Has good finishing speed. Will be there at the business end.
RP
Not beaten too far when fifth of six at Gold Coast over 1m1f (handicap) last month; passed over.
RSIS
Started at 13/5 and improved late to finish 5th last time at Gold Coast but down in trip. Should get going late. Will run close.
Career
11: 1-2-0
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Esk
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1666m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1680m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-2-0
Going Unknown
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Set pace and caught late this course over this journey. Can go forward.
ILB
Claimed late when 2nd beaten by 1L last start around here. Won't be far away during the run. Can win.
RP
Good effort when close up dropped back in distance 21 days ago; one to be interested in given there is limited recent form on offer in this race and her recent effort was encouraging.
RSIS
Faded at the finish when 2nd beaten by 1L last time at this track. Has shown early pace in races to date. Must respect.
Career
11: 2-1-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Rockhampton
1: 0-0-1
Track Toowoomba
3: 1-0-0
Track Gatton
4: 1-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-2
Going Good
5: 1-1-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-2
Going Unknown
1: 1-0-0
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ridden in back half, strong late to fill the minors Hcp (55) this venue after lengthy absence.
ILB
Ran on when 3rd last run at the track and returning to a rise in trip. Brandon Lerena and William Kropp must be respected together. Very tidy performer.
RP
A winner over C&D; consistent lately; finished third when 11-4 here over 5½f (handicap) last month; plenty of appeal.
RSIS
Good run when placing 3rd last time around here and stepping back up in trip. Jockey Brandon Lerena and trainer William Kropp are a promising combination. Expect support.
Career
10: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Beaudesert
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1625m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-1-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 53%
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Gatton
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 36 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Freshened after return. Failed to flatter this track first run back.
ILB
Odds of $13.00 and came in 7th last start around here. Better to look elsewhere.
RP
Has won previously at this course; finished seventh, beaten a fair way dropped back in distance last month; competitive shout given several of her rivals have questions to answer and she's shown signs of promise here and there.
RSIS
Was 12/1 and ran 7th last run at the track.
Career
16: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Warwick
1: 0-0-0
Track Nanango
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2150m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1990m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
6: 1-1-0
Going Soft
10: 0-0-0
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Freshened after returning. Warming into it late at Ipswich off long spell.
ILB
Was $8.50 and outpaced some runners late when 4th last time at Ipswich and has a positive gate. Expected to settle towards the tail. Place at best.
RP
Not beaten too far when fourth of nine (Ipswich) last month; produced several respectable runs lately; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Was 15/2 and made ground when closing off to finish 4th last time at Ipswich and has a good draw. Gets back and needs luck.
Career
17: 2-2-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
2: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 1-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
5: 0-2-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Georgina Cartwright current POT is 60% below Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 131%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 54%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 41% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 64% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 9%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
AAP
No threat as a $91 chance in (Bm60) at Gold Coast Poly. On pacer.
ILB
Started at $91.00 and weakened under pressure when 10th last run at Gold Coast Poly. Will be positive in the run early. Will be a difficult assignment.
RP
Missed the frame (beaten 15l into tenth) over 7½f at Gold Coast (handicap) 13 days ago; if excused most recent runs she would be interesting based on success three runs ago; no surprise to see her go well.
RSIS
At 90/1 tailed off to finish 10th last time at Gold Coast Poly. Likely to be well placed early.
Career
21: 1-0-3
Rating · IRD
71
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
5: 0-0-1
Track Toowoomba
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1260m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
14: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-0-1
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 53%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 61% Profit on Turnover
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
AAP
Dropped out to last and never sighted at Gold Coast over longer assignment. Drops to shorter trip.
ILB
Started at $26.00 and only fair when 8th last time at Gold Coast but drawn the rails. Might have to make up considerable ground. Dropping back to a shorter trip. Not threatening these.
RP
Beaten 11l in eighth over 1m1f at Gold Coast (handicap) last month; just the one victory on her CV; others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Started 25/1 and mediocre performance when 8th last time at Gold Coast but can save some energy from the stall. Likely to get back in the field.
Career
40: 2-5-6
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Dalby
5: 0-0-1
Track Warwick
2: 0-0-1
Track Beaudesert
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
19: 1-3-4
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
30: 1-1-4
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
8: 1-3-2
Hot Jockey
Positive
Emily Lang in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 14%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Finished well held this course.
ILB
Was $9.00 and didn't threaten when 7th last time here but going back up in trip. Has early speed and positions nicely. Has some claims.
RP
Finished just behind Oh Pretty Emma when seventh over 5½f here (handicap) 21 days ago; a C&D winner; hasn't really fired since her success in a handicap at Gatton in June; hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Started 8/1 and struggled with the pace when 7th last run at this venue but returns to a longer distance. Should come to hand quickly. Could feature here.