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Newcastle (NSW) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Newcastle (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 3 Oct, 10:00 am AEST

Meetings · Sat, 3 OctNewcastle (NSW)Change

Race 2 — Klosters Hcp (C1) 1500m · jumps

Race preview

Newcastle's Class 1 Klosters Handicap over 1500m has run and turned on the heavy favourite Varjak, who started shortest odds in the market. The track was GOOD4 and overcast when the field jumped at 2:09 pm AEST. Varjak led the market from Wallace Station and Sea Level. The case for Varjak looked tidy: a Rating 100 runner with two recent Class 1 placings at Illawarra Grange and Kembla Grange, drawn perfectly in barrier 1, and stripping fitter second-up. But the trainer combo has lost 37% POT across their last 100 races—a long-term efficiency leak that matters over a long sample. Wallace Station comes to the race off a debut win at Newcastle and sits second favourite. The form is sparse, just two career starts, but the win came at this track 22 August and Rory Hutchings has been outperforming his career average by 18% in the last 100 rides. Sea Level is third in the market and brings genuine credentials: a maiden win at Tuncurry at just his second start, and the jockey-trainer combo of Aaron Bullock and John O'Shea & Tom Charlton is running 81% above market expectation. That's a hot pairing in form.

Freddie Bassett, resuming after 22 weeks, carries an awkward Rating 82 and form that remains untested fresh at this level. His last campaign showed a Warwick Farm win, but the trainer is losing 24% POT. The speedGroups reveal Freddie Bassett is offpace and will need the runs to come to him from barrier 4, while Wallace Station leads from barrier 6. Varjak sits backmarked from gate 1 and will have work to do. Sea Level is midfield in barrier 7, with good pace on either side of him, and his last-start sectionals mark him as the fastest finisher in the field. The early shape will matter: if the offpace brigade controls tempo, the finisher gains advantage.

Air Kiss, drawn gate 3 and onpace, is a 13-start maiden with only two placings and now faces a negative rider change. That's a knock. Renoir carries an 84% ROI jockey booking in Jess Taylor, but her career record is modest and the last-ten form is patchy. The value sits with Sea Level at third in the market: a genuine fast finisher in form, saddled with a combo running hot, and positioned to run on if the speed plays out. Wallace Station deserves respect on debut credentials and track knowledge, though the sample is razor-thin. Varjak's pedigree is sound, but the trainer's cold POT figures and the market's short odds make this a race where the favourite could easily be pegged back by a closer with better run-through from behind.

Race notes

  • 3UP CL1 HCP,3yo+,CL1,Class 1
  • GOOD4
  • Overcast
  • 7 runners

Shortest win price

Varjak (2)

2.15

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 4Sea Level

Midfield

  • 2Varjak
  • 6Renoir

Onpace

  • 1Freddie Bassett
  • 3Siccius

Leader

  • 5Wallace Station
  • 7Air Kiss

  • Freddie Bassett · Negative

    Trainer ROI

    Trainers runners currently losing 24% Profit on Turnover

  • Varjak · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -37% POT in their L100 Races

  • Siccius · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -40% POT in their L100 Races

  • Sea Level · Positive

    Fast Finisher

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1Freddie BassettJ: Mitchell Bell·T: Annabel & Rob Archibald462kg5 1 6 8 68: 1-2-0$10.00$3.40

Career

8: 1-2-0

Rating · IRD

82

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    2: 1-1-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Geelong

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Goulburn

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Rosehill

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    2: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1500m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1600m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    4: 1-1-0

  • Going Soft

    4: 0-1-0

Last starts

  1. 6Tamworth1200m23 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4L
  2. 8Scone900m9 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)10L
  3. 6Randwick Kensington1800m27 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.1L
  4. 1Warwick Farm1600m15 Apr 2026 · 3yo · GOOD4-1.21
  5. 5Wyong1350m28 Mar 2026 · MDN · SOFT50.7L
  6. 4Randwick1050m16 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.6L
  7. 6Geelong2200m23 Oct 2025 · 3yo · SOFT71.6L
  8. 10Rosehill1800m11 Oct 2025 · 3yo · GOOD47.1L

Insights

  • Trainer ROI

    Negative

    Trainers runners currently losing 24% Profit on Turnover

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Up In Dist

    Positive

    Racing at a more suitable distance

  • Blinkers Off

    Positive

    Blinkers coming off this start

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Resuming (22-weeks). Form tidy through last campaign, including a Warwick Farm win. Can play a role fresh.

ILB

Back from a break. Odds of $8.00 and struggled with the pace when 6th last run at Randwick Kensington but up against a less competitive field. Rising in weight. Some respect.

RP

Beaten 7l when sixth of eight over 1m1f at Randwick (handicap) in April; can be a player at this level and has shown some recent improvement; has had some time off; one to consider if excused most recent run as achieved handicap success two runs back.

RSIS

First run back. Odds of 7/1 and didn't find the line when 6th last start at Randwick Kensington but up against a less competitive field.

2VarjakJ: Louise Day·T: C Maher160kg10 9 5 3 28: 1-1-2$2.15$1.26

Career

8: 1-1-2

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 1-0-1

  • Second-up

    2: 0-1-1

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Illawarra Grange

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Kembla Grange

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Rosehill

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 2000m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    3: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    5: 0-1-1

  • Going Soft

    3: 1-0-1

Last starts

  1. 2Illawarra Grange1450m17 Sept 2026 · CL1 · GOOD40.5L
  2. 3Kembla Grange1400m29 Aug 2026 · CL1 · GOOD42.3L
  3. 5Warwick Farm1208m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)5.5L
  4. 9Warwick Farm792m4 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.5L
  5. 10Gosford1600m25 Apr 2026 · BM64 · GOOD47L
  6. 5Rosehill1030m17 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.8L
  7. 7Rosehill2000m28 Mar 2026 · 3yo · SOFT67.7L
  8. 3Gosford1600m14 Mar 2026 · CL1 · SOFT50.5L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -37% POT in their L100 Races

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 17% POT in L100 Runners

  • Nice Barrier

    Positive

    Well drawn from gate 1

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Kept coming and just fell short at Illawarra Grange second-up. Drawn favourably. Stripping fitter, commands respect here.

ILB

Placed 2nd last start at Illawarra Grange and drawn the rails. Has run into the money 2 from 2 attempts this campaign. Can go through the gears. Likeable type and a major player.

RP

Missed out by half a length (Illawarra Grange) 16 days ago; been struggling to get his head in front recently so hard enough to fancy.

RSIS

Honest race when 2nd last start at Illawarra Grange and drawn beautifully. Has not missed the placings of late in 2 attempts. Shows good closing pace. Will attract plenty of interest.

3SicciusJ: Andrew Gibbons·T: K A Lees258.5kg1 4 6 7 34: 1-1-0$34.00$7.00

Career

4: 1-1-0

Rating · IRD

73

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Wyong

    2: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1350m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1500m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1600m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Going Soft

    2: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    1: 1-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 3Wyong1200m10 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.7L
  2. 7Gosford1000m31 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)9.7L
  3. 6Gosford800m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)11L
  4. 4Newcastle2200m23 May 2026 · 3UP CL1-SW · HEAVY94.3L
  5. 1Wyong1600m7 May 2026 · Maiden · GOOD4-0.3
  6. 2Port Macquarie1500m26 Apr 2026 · MDN · SOFT70.3L
  7. 7Wyong1350m4 Apr 2026 · Maiden · SOFT67.2L
  8. 4Scone900m25 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -40% POT in their L100 Races

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Draw Suits

    Positive

    Well drawn inside

  • Up In Dist

    Positive

    Racing at a more suitable distance

  • Improver

    Positive

    Poised to improve on recent form here

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Second campaign (19-weeks). Prepared for return with 3 trials. Shapes as a rough place prospect fresh in this affair.

ILB

Resuming. Odds of $13.00 and came in 4th last run at the track but has a positive barrier. Fitter for a barrier trial at Wyong on Sept 10th. Facing a difficult task today.

RP

Not disgraced when fourth in May upped to 1m3f in a conditions race; returns from a layoff; chance with a bit more luck as excuses last time (crowded) and shown he can get his head in front.

RSIS

Back after break. Started at 12/1 and came in 4th last run at the track but gets a favourable stall. Back to a shorter distance.

4Sea LevelJ: Aaron Bullock·T: John O'Shea & Tom Charlton758kg5 5 6 4 12: 1-0-0$4.80$2.10

Career

2: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

81

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Tuncurry

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1150m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 1-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 1Tuncurry1400m11 Sept 2026 · Maiden · GOOD3-0.8
  2. 4Newcastle1150m25 Aug 2026 · 4UP MDN HCP · SOFT62.7L
  3. 6Randwick1045m31 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)5.7L
  4. 5Randwick745m20 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)4L
  5. 5Randwick1045m7 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial4.8L
  6. 7Randwick1045m22 July 2025 · Barrier Trial4.2L
  7. 5Hawkesbury800m7 July 2025 · Barrier Trial2.9L

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 81%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%

  • Solid Run LS

    Positive

    Won last start

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Sheer display of grit and determination at Tuncurry at his second race start. A Bullock retains the ride. Looks ready to go on.

ILB

Finished hard to win last start at Tuncurry but facing a stronger grade. Aaron Bullock is a strong choice aboard. Possible place chance.

RP

Off the mark at the second time of asking when getting the job done by three-quarters of a length last month at Tuncurry upped to 7f; prospects.

RSIS

Charged home to win last run at Tuncurry but up against a higher level of opposition. Jockey Aaron Bullock is a bonus.

5Wallace StationJ: Rory Hutchings·T: Michael Freedman656.5kg6 4 1 52: 1-0-0$2.70$1.36

Career

2: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

92

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating80%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Illawarra Grange

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1250m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1450m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    2: 1-0-0

Last starts

  1. 5Illawarra Grange1450m17 Sept 2026 · CL1 · GOOD43.6L
  2. 1Newcastle1250m22 Aug 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD4-1.2
  3. 4Randwick1040m14 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.8L
  4. 6Randwick740m31 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)4.2L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 18% in Last 100 Rides

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Good debut at Newcastle 22 Aug. Not disgraced at Illawarra Grange at second start at $6. Can challenge.

ILB

Jumped at $6.00 and ran 5th last start at Illawarra Grange. May see an upturn in form. Rory Hutchings and Michael Freedman have shared plenty of success together. Well respected contender.

RP

Not beaten that far at Illawarra Grange last month when just behind Varjak; has winning track form; a leading contender if duplicating the form of his most recent win.

RSIS

Was 5/1 and ran 5th last run at Illawarra Grange. Capable of a strong comeback. Won't be far away during the run. Should go close.

6RenoirJ: Jess Taylor·T: Ms K Gavenlock556kg5 1 9 5 67: 1-0-0$51.00$10.00

Career

7: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating20%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Hawkesbury

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Muswellbrook

    2: 1-0-0

  • Track Gosford

    3: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1280m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    2: 1-0-0

  • Going Soft

    3: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 6Hawkesbury1400m10 Sept 2026 · BM64 · GOOD46.2L
  2. 5Gosford1200m28 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 64 · SOFT52.8L
  3. 9Gosford1000m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)5L
  4. 1Muswellbrook1750m27 July 2025 · MDN-SW · HEAVY8-4
  5. 5Gosford1600m10 July 2025 · Maiden · SOFT62.9L
  6. 5Hawkesbury1300m17 June 2025 · Maiden · SOFT53.5L
  7. 5Gosford1000m29 May 2025 · MID MDN HCP · HEAVY94.9L
  8. 2Beaumont1000m7 May 2025 · Barrier Trial1.2L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 84% in Last 100 Rides

  • Jockey Booking

    Positive

    Jess Taylor 93% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Form

    Positive

    In form stable, out performing market expectations 55%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 42% POT in L100 Runners

  • Key Jockey

    Positive

    Jess Taylor winning at 72% POT in last 100 rides

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%

  • Needs To Imp

    Negative

    Finished towards the tail last start

Comments

AAP

Sent back to last and safely held in the small field at Hawkesbury. Looks up against it.

ILB

At $41.00 disappointing run when 6th last run at Hawkesbury. In a lot of trouble.

RP

Not had much racing; beaten a fair way when sixth over 7f at Hawkesbury (handicap) 23 days ago; he can be taken on.

RSIS

Started at 40/1 and lacklustre showing when 6th last run at Hawkesbury.

7Air KissJ: Olivia Chambers·T: Ms K Gavenlock355kg6 3 2 6 713: 1-0-2$81.00$15.00

Career

13: 1-0-2

Rating · IRD

72

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    2: 1-0-1

  • Track Hawkesbury

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    5: 1-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    5: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    2: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1600m

    2: 0-0-1

  • Distance 900m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    7: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    4: 0-0-1

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 7Hawkesbury1400m10 Sept 2026 · BM64 · GOOD46.6L
  2. 6Gosford1200m28 Aug 2026 · Benchmark 64 · SOFT57.4L
  3. 2Gosford1000m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)0.6L
  4. 3Gosford1600m11 Feb 2026 · CL1 · GOOD41.8L
  5. 6Newcastle1350m15 Jan 2026 · Benchmark 64 · SOFT53.6L
  6. 6Wyong1350m20 Dec 2025 · CL1 · GOOD47.9L
  7. 7Gosford1200m4 Dec 2025 · CL1 · GOOD48L
  8. 7Gosford1000m25 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial4.5L

Insights

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Olivia Chambers current POT is 19% below Career Avg.

  • Rider

    Negative

    Negative rider change today

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 48%

  • Stable In Form

    Positive

    Stable going well. Out performing market by 55%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 42% POT in L100 Runners

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Unable to make an impression at Hawkesbury when second-up. Keener on others.

ILB

Odds of $101.00 and gave away some ground when 7th last time at Hawkesbury. Won't be far away during the run. Others much better.

RP

Finished last of seven over 7f at Hawkesbury (handicap) last month when just behind Renoir; has won at this track; others more appealing.

RSIS

Was 100/1 and didn't attack the line when 7th last start at Hawkesbury. Should be going forward early.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.

Past meetings

  • Sat 14 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT · 10 races
  • Sat 31 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
  • Mon 26 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
  • Sat 17 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
  • Tue 6 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
  • Sat 19 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
  • Fri 18 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races