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Warrnambool (VIC) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Warrnambool (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 6 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 6 NovWarrnambool (VIC)Change

Race 4 — Northpoint Liquor Bottle-O Mdn Plate 1000m · jumps

Race preview

Warrnambool hosts a maiden plate over 1000m on a good track in overcast conditions at 3:30 pm AEDT. The win market leads with Madame Petite, followed by Pee Plater, Mamzelle Raine, and Danseur Noble. This is a wide-open maiden where debut experience and trial form will separate genuine chances from the also-rans. The track and distance suit runners with early gate speed or finishing nous, and several in this field possess neither.

Madame Petite sits shortest and the case for backing her rests on redemption. She was hard in the market at Yarra Valley on debut but ran poorly, finishing seventh over 1009m on soft going. The data suggests everything went wrong that day; her trial into the race at Caulfield Heath over 800m was impressive enough to draw confidence, and barrier one suits her backmarking style perfectly. The risk is real—debut form is unreliable—but the value sits with a well-drawn runner second-up who trialled better than she raced. Pee Plater, next in the market, faces a steeper ask. Brad Rawiller's mount is resuming after 25 weeks, and while the barrier trial placings at fourth and third show improvement, the jockey-trainer combination has lost 33 per cent on turnover across the last hundred races, an ominous sign.

Mamzelle Raine, the third-shortest, projects as the race's leading danger. Specced heavily throughout this campaign and holding a leader's speedMap from barrier eight, she possesses the gate speed to steal an advantage and hold it. Tom Madden and Mervyn McKenzie have outperformed market expectations by 61 per cent, and that hot combination carries genuine edge. Danseur Noble rounds the main chances, full brother to a two-time Clare winner with Murray Bridge jumpout wins behind him, though the barrier trial form at Morphettville and Murray Bridge—eighth and seventh—does not inspire. The cold jockey-trainer pairing with Linda Meech and J F Macmillan is a deterrent. Between Madame Petite's value and Mamzelle Raine's combination form, the battle will likely be fought up front or in the finish.

Race notes

  • 3UP MDN-SW,3yo+,MDN-SW,Maiden
  • GOOD4
  • Overcast
  • 8 runners

Shortest win price

Pee Plater (2)

2.15

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Offmidfield

  • 4Last Piece
  • 2Pee Plater
  • 6Miss Lil

Firststart

  • 1Danseur Noble
  • 3Gunnatippatinnie

Backmarker

  • 8Madame Petite

Midfield

  • 7Royal Vega

Leader

  • 5Mamzelle Raine

  • Danseur Noble · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Pee Plater · Negative

    Trainer SR

    Vincent Malady striking at just 7%

  • Gunnatippatinnie · Negative

    Trainer Recent

    Camp struggling with S/R just 2%

  • Last Piece · Positive

    Fast Finisher

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1Danseur NobleJ: Linda Meech·T: J F Macmillan259.5kg6 7 8$12.00$2.35

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Last starts

  1. 8Morphettville1000m28 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)30.7L
  2. 7Murray Bridge1000m7 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)17L
  3. 6Balaklava1000m4 Dec 2025 · Barrier Trial27.2L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Form

    Positive

    In form stable, out performing market expectations 60%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 44% POT in L100 Runners

  • Nice Barrier

    Positive

    Well drawn from gate 2

  • 1st Up

    Negative

    May need this run

  • First Starter

    Positive

    Not raced previously

Comments

AAP

Trials (4:0-0-0). Full brother to a two time Clare winner. Has shown speed to win two recent Murray Bridge jumpouts. May give a sight on debut.

RP

Sibling of Knight Dancer (6f winner); first public outing; strong contender with signs of encouragement in profile.

2Pee PlaterJ: Brad Rawiller·T: V L Malady659.5kg7 62: 0-0-0$2.15$1.06

Career

2: 0-0-0

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey50%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Ararat

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Kyneton

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1225m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 6Ararat1100m9 May 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT73.9L
  2. 7Kyneton1225m23 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.6L

Insights

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    Vincent Malady striking at just 7%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -33% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 34%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • 1st Up

    Negative

    May need this run

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Kicks off second campaign (25-weeks). Fourth and third in two recent jumpouts. Better for experience and this is a suitable assignment for resumption.

RP

Lightly raced (this just his third race); not disgraced when sixth of 13 over 5½f at Ararat (maiden) in May; returns from a break here; others are preferred.

3GunnatippatinnieJ: Neil Farley·T: Chris Calthorpe558kg5 7$21.00$3.20

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey50%
  • Trainer20%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Last starts

  1. 7Colac800m22 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.5L
  2. 5Caulfield Heath800m14 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.5L

Insights

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Camp struggling with S/R just 2%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -58% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 55%

Comments

AAP

Trials (2:0-0-0). First foal out of a two time winning mare. Second in a recent Geelong jumpout. Others profiling stronger.

RP

Gelded already; makes first racecourse appearance; sire's progeny generally enjoy some ease in the ground; one to be interested in with signs of encouragement in profile.

4Last PieceJ: Samantha Noble·T: S G Noble457.5kg10 9 4 10 328: 0-1-3$41.00$3.90

Career

28: 0-1-3

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Moe

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Swan Hill

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Wangaratta

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    21: 0-1-3

  • Distance 1100m

    3: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    20: 0-1-2

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-0-1

  • Going Soft

    5: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 3Balranald1000m24 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD42.93L
  2. 10Cranbourne1000m16 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD311.11L
  3. 4Bendigo1000m20 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD37.2L
  4. 9Warracknabeal1000m15 Aug 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT66L
  5. 10Wangaratta1000m31 July 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY97.2L
  6. 8Corowa1000m11 May 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD44.1L
  7. 6Seymour1000m26 Apr 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT55.6L
  8. 6Pakenham1000m2 Apr 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD46.2L

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Trainer Career

    Negative

    Trainer Career S/R is 3%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are under performing market expectations by -25%

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 26%

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Honest performance without menacing winner at Balranald over today's trip. Prefer at the picnics.

RP

Respectable effort (Balranald) last month; attempts to score at the 29th time of asking.

5Mamzelle RaineJ: Tom Madden·T: M J Mckenzie857.5kg–$10.00$2.15

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    Mervyn McKenzie striking at just 5%

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 61%

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 22%

  • Hot Jockey

    Positive

    Tom Madden in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 5%

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Awkward Draw

    Negative

    Would have liked a better draw

Comments

AAP

Has been specced in betting at all runs this campaign. Outer barrier but has good gate speed. Could take some catching.

RP

Found life tough when 8l back in fifth last week; others are preferred.

6Miss LilJ: Dean Yendall·T: F Stockdale757.5kg4 12 6 12 1118: 0-0-3$10.00$2.15

Career

18: 0-0-3

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey50%
  • Trainer20%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Traralgon

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Moe

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Ballarat

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    5: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1009m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    8: 0-0-3

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-0-2

  • Going Soft

    2: 0-0-1

  • Going Synthetic

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 11Stony Creek1100m15 Feb 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD47.4L
  2. 12Pakenham1400m5 Feb 2026 · 3-5yo · GOOD48.8L
  3. 6Pakenham1100m23 Jan 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD34.1L
  4. 12Yarra Valley1000m13 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD416.4L
  5. 4Stony Creek1100m30 Dec 2025 · 4UP MDN-SW · GOOD45.1L
  6. 3Stony Creek1100m7 Dec 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · HEAVY107.8L
  7. 3Traralgon1100m30 Nov 2025 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY90.4L
  8. 8Moe1100m16 Nov 2025 · 4UP MDN-SW · GOOD44L

Insights

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Camp struggling with S/R just 2%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -75% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 69%

  • Awkward Draw

    Negative

    May find this draw awkward

  • 1st Up

    Negative

    May need this run

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Resuming (37-weeks). Resumes without a trial or jumpout. Would need a significant market move.

RP

Yet to win after 18 starts; finished 11th of 12 over 5½f at Stony Creek (maiden) in February; returning from a layoff here; others more appealing.

7Royal VegaJ: Kate Walters·T: S R Fisher357.5kg1 21: 0-0-0$126.00$7.50

Career

1: 0-0-0

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer20%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Donald

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 12Donald1000m20 June 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY923.5L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer ROI

    Negative

    Trainers runners currently losing 100% Profit on Turnover

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • 1st Up

    Negative

    May need this run

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Returns for second campaign (19-weeks). A long way off them at Donald on debut at huge odds. Firmer track may spark improvement but does have to lift.

RP

Comfortably beaten into last on her debut at Donald at 150-1 in June; potential to step up; returning from a layoff here.

8Madame PetiteJ: Fred W Kersley·T: L Smith156kg5 71: 0-0-0$2.45$1.10

Career

1: 0-0-0

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Yarra Valley

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1009m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 7Yarra Valley1009m24 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT58.85L
  2. 5Caulfield Heath800m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.5L

Insights

  • Needs To Imp

    Negative

    Finished towards the tail last start

  • Draw Suits

    Positive

    Well drawn inside

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Everything went wrong on debut when hard in the market. Trialled up impressively prior and looks hard to beat.

RP

Seemed to find life tough on her debut 13 days ago at Yarra Glen; now knows what is expected of her; has claims.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.

Past meetings

  • Thu 29 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
  • Thu 15 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
  • Thu 1 Oct, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
  • Mon 21 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
  • Thu 3 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races